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BABA

Alibaba · NYSE · China

Cap tier
Mega
Approx cap
$260.0B
Bull scenarios
472
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 472 public links lack move; 0 lack probability

Themes & clusters

From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C5AI coding copilots replacing junior engineersDiffusion models/diffusion transformersOpenweight models (Chinese)Reasoning ModelsSingle omnimodel (speech + memory + physics + action)Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model

Investment thesis

From SRC_B Company Master

Largest Chinese openweight model family with global dev adoption.

Bull scenarios (472)

Predictions where this ticker benefits
PredRoleDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactStatus
SPC_019multi_vectorGeopoliticsAerospace-sector manufacturing base is being aggressively reoriented away from China — reflecting a new 'metageography of development' where national actors secure critical aerospace supply chains (tungsten, copper, rare earths) via political borders a...Peter Dannenberg71.8%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_036multi_vectorAI/CognitionWorld-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028).Eric Schmidt69.7%unknownunknownin_progress
FUT_023multi_vectorGeopolitics'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...Ian Bremmer68.1%unknownunknownin_progress
ROB_021multi_vectorGeopoliticsThe United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China operates with 'incredible speed at massive scale' in hardware-heavy sectors (advanced batteries, high-speed rail, commercial robotics); failure to digitize the industr...Marc Andreessen66.6%unknownunknownin_progress
247_033multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityTimelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decadeDemis Hassabis62.0%unknownunknownpending
238_020multi_vectorAIMath field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)Alex Wissner-Gross60.7%unknownunknownpartial
247_034multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decadeDario Amodei59.4%unknownunknownpending
237_025multi_vectorAIWe are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.Peter Diamandis59.4%unknownunknownpending
231_021multi_vectorConsumerPrivacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Peter Diamandis59.2%unknownunknownpending
230_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksEnterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Dario Amodei59.2%unknownunknownpending
AUT_002multi_vectorAIModels excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological...Alex Wissner-Gross59.1%unknownunknownin_progress
234_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityLab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental optionPeter Diamandis57.3%unknownunknownpending
240_054multi_vectorAIASI will reinvent patent and copyright practicesPeter Diamandis57.1%unknownunknownpending
SEM_049multi_vectorAI/SoftwareAI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement.Alex Wissner-Gross55.7%unknownunknownpartial
231_044multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
241_011multi_vectorLabor/JobsBy end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skillPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
244_032multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi55.2%unknownunknownpending
247_046multi_vectorAIAI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
238_004multi_vectorMedia/AdsFuture Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the futurePeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
233_016multi_vectorEducationAlpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.MacKenzie Price55.2%unknownunknownin_progress
242_012multi_vectorAuto/TransportFlying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 monthsPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
247_041multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditionalPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
239_026multi_vectorOtherFuture will be very entertainingElon Musk55.0%unknownunknownpending
242_022multi_vectorReal EstatePersonal garages at home will disappearPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
241_018multi_vectorEnergyAlgorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Eric Schmidt55.0%unknownunknownin_progress
240_044multi_vectorEducationCollege bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_026multi_vectorEducationCollege bankruptcy rate will skyrocketPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
240_043multi_vectorLabor/JobsCS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsReskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_002multi_vectorEducationColleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_001multi_vectorLabor/JobsRapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_047multi_vectorMacro/EconomyNew emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
232_041multi_vectorGeopoliticsPhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
231_011multi_vectorGeopoliticsThe country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
237_004multi_vectorConsumerMac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_033multi_vectorAIPie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hoursAndrew Yang55.0%unknownunknownpartial
232_018multi_vectorAIWe are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
237_001multi_vectorAIIncreased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
237_002multi_vectorAIWe will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
232_017multi_vectorAIAI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
241_007multi_vectorAISuper intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)San Francisco AI community54.6%unknownunknownin_progress
231_005multi_vectorAINext year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
242_013multi_vectorAuto/TransportFlying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
241_014multi_vectorAIThe world a year from today will be nothing like the world todayPeter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
238_049multi_vectorAuto/TransportArcher Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
243_044multi_vectorAuto/TransportTesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)Peter Diamandis54.5%unknownunknownpending
240_056multi_vectorAIAnthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)Peter Diamandis54.3%unknownunknownpending
241_026multi_vectorSpaceSpace data center technology is understood and largely figured outEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_024multi_vectorSpaceHeat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressedEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_054multi_vectorSpaceSpace wins by far on energy argument for data centersPeter Diamandis54.0%unknownunknownpending
241_059multi_vectorEnergyGovernment will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsPeter Diamandis53.9%unknownunknownpending
241_060multi_vectorSpaceData centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centersPeter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
236_048multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldPeter Diamandis53.2%unknownunknownpending
244_034multi_vectorOtherCompanies get more conservative as they grow, but should do oppositeDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_008multi_vectorOtherIf you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show upDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_030multi_vectorOtherPhysical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital worldDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_014multi_vectorAuto/TransportAV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offerDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
235_022multi_vectorEnergyUS will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.Peter Diamandis52.8%unknownunknownpending
241_044multi_vectorEnergyRate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEric Schmidt52.4%unknownunknownin_progress
232_010multi_vectorAIVoice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
230_025multi_vectorAIThe next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
231_043multi_vectorLabor/JobsLack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs.Peter Diamandis51.9%unknownunknownpending
235_033multi_vectorAuto/TransportChinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.Peter Diamandis51.7%unknownunknownpending
246_035multi_vectorAITerafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel.Peter Diamandis51.3%unknownunknownpending
241_055multi_vectorSpaceNext frontier of AI infrastructure is spacePeter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
231_012multi_vectorAIWithin 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.Peter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
241_019multi_vectorAIAI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yetEric Schmidt51.1%unknownunknownpending
232_019multi_vectorAIAI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.Ben Horowitz51.1%unknownunknownpending
244_023multi_vectorLabor/JobsOver next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacementDara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
243_043multi_vectorAuto/TransportTesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150KPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
235_014multi_vectorAISam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability.Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
238_017multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
247_032multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFull cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
237_024multi_vectorAISkippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation).Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
246_026multi_vectorAIIn next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman).Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
241_062multi_vectorAIBest AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment)Eric Schmidt51.0%unknownunknownpending
231_036multi_vectorSpaceRelativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
241_016multi_vectorEnergy92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030Eric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_028multi_vectorConsumerAI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_037multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_042multi_vectorConsumerWithin-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_006multi_vectorMedia/AdsYouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_026multi_vectorLabor/JobsWorld will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_063multi_vectorGeopoliticsAmerica needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
247_059multi_vectorLabor/JobsAfrican nations will be impacted least by AI transitionPeter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
230_044multi_vectorGeopoliticsUnrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_046multi_vectorMacro/EconomySocial unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_021multi_vectorMedia/AdsAI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_048multi_vectorEducationAI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_031multi_vectorMacro/EconomyWealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_046multi_vectorConsumerWhen Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_027multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDebt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_024multi_vectorReal EstateCommercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_016multi_vectorEducationCollege premium is quickly evaporatingAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_012multi_vectorGeopoliticsAn independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_036multi_vectorMedia/AdsAI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_009multi_vectorLabor/JobsTop programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AIEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_012multi_vectorMarkets/StocksLarge companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Salim Ismail50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_010multi_vectorMacro/EconomyIndustry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_033multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_049multi_vectorAIUnderage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't crossEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
244_035multi_vectorOtherUber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilitiesDara Khosrowshahi50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_047multi_vectorEducationUniversities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmenEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_036multi_vectorAINo frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to warEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
246_027multi_vectorAIAI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future).Sam Altman50.6%unknownunknownpending
240_005multi_vectorAIThe organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and governmentSalim Ismail50.6%unknownunknownpending
247_006multi_vectorAIAnthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026Peter Diamandis50.5%unknownunknownpending
236_013multi_vectorGeopoliticsDemocrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Andrew Yang50.4%unknownunknownpending
242_019multi_vectorAuto/TransportEVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionPeter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
231_008multi_vectorAIAI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.Peter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
239_017multi_vectorOtherFuture is 80%+ likely to be greatElon Musk50.4%unknownunknownpending
AUT_022multi_vectorAuto/Transport2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...Morgan Stanley50.3%unknownunknownin_progress
240_014multi_vectorAICost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 monthsSam Altman50.3%unknownunknownpending
236_010multi_vectorMacro/Economy5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next dayAndrew Yang50.3%unknownunknownpending
241_017multi_vectorEnergyEquivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being builtEric Schmidt50.1%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_049multi_vectorAI/MarketsTraditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration.Jason Calacanis50.0%unknownunknownpending
247_047multi_vectorEnergyVertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
244_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportIn 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesDara Khosrowshahi49.9%unknownunknownpending
241_001multi_vectorAIWe are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIEric Schmidt49.9%unknownunknownpending
246_046multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
234_020multi_vectorAIAI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
244_004multi_vectorAuto/TransportRace car driving will persist as a sportDara Khosrowshahi49.7%unknownunknownpending
234_023multi_vectorLabor/Jobs80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearPeter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
238_055multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMarginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Peter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
240_023multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity45% of dementia cases are entirely preventableDr. Don Mucalem49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_037multi_vectorAIChinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weightsEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_023multi_vectorEnergy10% of US electricity will be used by data centersEric Schmidt49.4%unknownunknownpending
231_033multi_vectorSpaceData centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Peter Diamandis49.4%unknownunknownpending
244_016multi_vectorAuto/TransportAV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry todayDara Khosrowshahi49.1%unknownunknownpending
231_030multi_vectorEnergyUS AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Eric Schmidt49.1%unknownunknownpending
236_023multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 monthsAndrew Yang48.9%unknownunknownpending
241_012multi_vectorLabor/JobsJobs impact from AI will occur at some pointEric Schmidt48.9%unknownunknownpending
241_030multi_vectorLabor/JobsLow-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automationEric Schmidt48.9%unknownunknownpending
236_003multi_vectorLabor/JobsJobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026Andrew Yang48.9%unknownunknownpending
234_005multi_vectorAIDemis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decadeDemis Hassabis48.8%unknownunknownpending
241_020multi_vectorEnergy1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEric Schmidt48.6%unknownunknownpending
232_020multi_vectorGeopoliticsReal danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Ben Horowitz48.5%unknownunknownpending
243_040multi_vectorConsumerSuburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryDara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
243_032multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Dara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
235_023multi_vectorEnergyEric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Eric Schmidt47.8%unknownunknownpending
241_031multi_vectorAIScientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvementEric Schmidt47.7%unknownunknownpending
243_041multi_vectorConsumerDelivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expectedDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
229_007multi_vectorRoboticsFigure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.Brett Adcock47.6%unknownunknownpending
243_029multi_vectorConsumerDrone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
239_003multi_vectorAIWe are currently in AI hard takeoffElon Musk47.4%unknownunknownpending
236_029multi_vectorAIRegulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulatedAndrew Yang47.2%unknownunknownpending
SEM_037multi_vectorLabor/JobsFor any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027).Emad Mostaque47.2%unknownunknownpartial
241_033multi_vectorAIFew frontier AI companies will be in ChinaEric Schmidt47.1%unknownunknownpending
234_042multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social SecurityPeter Diamandis47.0%unknownunknownpending
232_013multi_vectorAIRecursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.Jimmy Ba46.7%unknownunknownpending
248_008multi_vectorAIJack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.Jack Dorsey46.7%unknownunknownpending
241_046multi_vectorAIGemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systemsEric Schmidt46.7%unknownunknownpending
246_025multi_vectorAISam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).Sam Altman46.7%unknownunknownpending
236_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsUnnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterUnnamed tech CEO46.7%unknownunknownpending
231_009multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndia will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following.Salim Ismail46.7%unknownunknownpending
237_012multi_vectorLabor/JobsOver the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth.Alex Finn46.7%unknownunknownpending
244_007multi_vectorReal EstateVertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsDara Khosrowshahi46.6%unknownunknownpending
247_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsCompanies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesSalim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
236_050multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPoverty level around $25K per person going forwardAndrew Yang46.6%unknownunknownpending
235_011multi_vectorMarkets/StocksPE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Salim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
240_034multi_vectorEnergyMorgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028Morgan Stanley46.5%unknownunknownpending
SPC_029multi_vectorLabor/Jobs'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency.Sam Altman46.5%unknownunknownpending
241_032multi_vectorAIWorld can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scaleEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_040multi_vectorAIA Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to actEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
229_006multi_vectorRoboticsFigure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.Brett Adcock46.4%unknownunknownpending
240_006multi_vectorAIOpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decadesSalim Ismail46.4%unknownunknownpending
248_024multi_vectorOtherAI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Alex Wissner-Gross46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_034multi_vectorAIOne or two frontier AI companies in EuropeEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
246_036multi_vectorAITerafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.Peter Diamandis46.4%unknownunknownpending
236_006multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_035multi_vectorLabor/JobsSignificant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
244_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsAutomation will typically augment work rather than replace itDara Khosrowshahi46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_034multi_vectorAIApple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_011multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndependent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_036multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
229_025multi_vectorRoboticsCompetitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Brett Adcock46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_023multi_vectorAIAI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
231_048multi_vectorAIThousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.Salim Ismail46.3%unknownunknownpending
241_039multi_vectorAIIn a year we'll know better which AI labs pull aheadEric Schmidt46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_008multi_vectorAIReal-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
237_003multi_vectorAI12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.Alex Finn46.3%unknownunknownpending
238_013multi_vectorAIFrontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advancePeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
232_025multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMassive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Elon Musk46.0%unknownunknownpending
235_021multi_vectorAuto/TransportZipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Zipline45.9%unknownunknownpending
239_025multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAI will solve back painElon Musk45.9%unknownunknownpending
232_009multi_vectorAIStartups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.Ben Horowitz45.8%unknownunknownpending
244_027multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasksDara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
240_035multi_vectorEnergyMeta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035Meta45.7%unknownunknownpending
244_026multi_vectorLabor/JobsUber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Dara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
242_053multi_vectorAuto/TransportNew car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilizationSalim Ismail45.6%unknownunknownpending
242_039multi_vectorSpaceNASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on MarsJared Isaacman (NASA administrator)45.5%unknownunknownpending
239_006multi_vectorAIAI will solve everything including longevityElon Musk45.4%unknownunknownpending
236_044multi_vectorEducationUniversities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveSalim Ismail45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_054multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Peter Diamandis45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_045multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possibleAlex Wissner-Gross45.3%unknownunknownpending
245_008multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMore direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and RemusBen Lamm45.2%unknownunknownpartial
245_020multi_vectorOtherScreworm will decimate US cattle and bison industryBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_043multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface areaBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_030multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityHumans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental changeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_031multi_vectorOtherFuture is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI eraSalim Ismail45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_021multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEngineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over timeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_001multi_vectorBiotech/LongevitySynthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human historyBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_047multi_vectorEnergyUS will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solarEmad Mostaque44.9%unknownunknownpending
232_028multi_vectorLabor/JobsIn AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong.Ben Horowitz44.9%unknownunknownpending
234_034multi_vectorLabor/JobsAndrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 yearsAndrew Yang44.9%unknownunknownpending
241_058multi_vectorLabor/JobsHigh-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automationEric Schmidt44.9%unknownunknownpending
236_005multi_vectorLabor/JobsAnthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 yearsDario Amodei / Anthropic44.9%unknownunknownpending
232_027multi_vectorLabor/JobsEntry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited.Ben Horowitz44.9%unknownunknownpending
243_045multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel timeDara Khosrowshahi44.9%unknownunknownpending
242_006multi_vectorAITerafab will reach 70% of TSMC's outputPeter Diamandis44.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_001multi_vectorAIBy 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.Sam Altman44.8%unknownunknownpending
241_057multi_vectorRoboticsElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk44.8%unknownunknownpending
238_025multi_vectorAIAI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human levelEmad Mostaque44.7%unknownunknownpending
247_049multi_vectorEnergySolar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsAlex Wissner-Gross44.7%unknownunknownpending
245_009multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorptionPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_054multi_vectorAITerafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500BPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
244_001multi_vectorAuto/TransportTechnology will always be a part of the human driving experienceDara Khosrowshahi44.7%unknownunknownpending
246_045multi_vectorMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Peter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
240_025multi_vectorAITesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per monthPeter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
238_048multi_vectorGeopoliticsUS must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Eric Schmidt44.6%unknownunknownpending
243_004multi_vectorAuto/TransportUber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safeDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
238_046multi_vectorEnergyxAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleGwynne Shotwell / xAI44.1%unknownunknownpending
243_026multi_vectorAuto/TransportExciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)Dara Khosrowshahi44.1%unknownunknownpending
236_019multi_vectorRoboticsHuman plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerAndrew Yang44.0%unknownunknownpending
234_001multi_vectorGeopoliticsIndia will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineSalim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
241_042multi_vectorGeopoliticsPost-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceEric Schmidt43.9%unknownunknownpending
231_010multi_vectorGeopoliticsChina has peaked and is going to be on descent.Salim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
242_001multi_vectorAIElon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionElon Musk43.9%unknownunknownpending
229_004multi_vectorGeopoliticsBy summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.Brett Adcock43.8%unknownunknownpending
234_024multi_vectorLabor/JobsFinancial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisSalim Ismail43.7%unknownunknownpending
239_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk43.7%unknownunknownpending
239_002multi_vectorAIAI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestElon Musk43.6%unknownunknownpending
238_026multi_vectorAIEvery attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerantAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_028multi_vectorAIArtisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
234_006multi_vectorAIOver the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solvedAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_001multi_vectorAIA billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_047multi_vectorAISolving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_046multi_vectorAIOver the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
238_039multi_vectorAIApple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next yearAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_046multi_vectorMedia/AdsPublic interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two daysAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_016multi_vectorMarkets/StocksA specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
246_023multi_vectorAIGrok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.PolyMarket43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_029multi_vectorAICognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_027multi_vectorAIWe are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
232_029multi_vectorLabor/JobsEntry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_032multi_vectorAIPSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_013multi_vectorMacro/EconomyOver 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_031multi_vectorAIWe are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
242_014multi_vectorAuto/TransportHuman driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening outSalim Ismail43.3%unknownunknownpending
241_038multi_vectorAIChinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredEric Schmidt43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_024multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEveryone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest personElon Musk43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_016multi_vectorLabor/JobsTesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
239_007multi_vectorAIHumans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar systemElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
232_032multi_vectorCryptoCrypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Ben Horowitz43.1%unknownunknownpending
237_005multi_vectorMarkets/StocksApple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Alex Finn42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_018multi_vectorMacro/EconomyInvasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUS spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
243_027multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026Dara Khosrowshahi42.7%unknownunknownpending
247_048multi_vectorEnergyBattery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarAlex Wissner-Gross42.7%unknownunknownpending
244_006multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking offDara Khosrowshahi42.7%unknownunknownpending
229_015multi_vectorRoboticsThe current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.Brett Adcock42.6%unknownunknownpending
236_014multi_vectorLabor/JobsPublicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quicklyAndrew Yang42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_040multi_vectorLabor/JobsCEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationAndrew Yang42.5%unknownunknownpending
244_024multi_vectorLabor/JobsHopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upDara Khosrowshahi42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_025multi_vectorReal EstateSuburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homesAndrew Yang42.4%unknownunknownpending
240_051multi_vectorLabor/JobsAfter first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_039multi_vectorLabor/JobsAny company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularitySalim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_039multi_vectorGeopoliticsAI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Salim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_022multi_vectorMarkets/StocksDeepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
237_014multi_vectorLabor/JobsAccountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Unnamed friend (accountant manager)42.3%unknownunknownpending
230_026multi_vectorConsumerThe QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
232_005multi_vectorLabor/JobsBig enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Ben Horowitz42.3%unknownunknownpending
238_042multi_vectorConsumerIris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_045multi_vectorConsumerMost volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
234_050multi_vectorAIOpen-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilitiesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
234_027multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityElement Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_028multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityPersonalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
245_035multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityGene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled backBen Lamm42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_032multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFirst-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_036multi_vectorAIAI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_049multi_vectorAIHumans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_015multi_vectorAIPost-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's playAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
237_007multi_vectorAIEvery other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.Alex Finn42.1%unknownunknownpending
231_007multi_vectorAIAI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_001multi_vectorAISocietal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_002multi_vectorAIWay more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_016multi_vectorAISuper intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_054multi_vectorAISSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
234_037multi_vectorGeopoliticsCivilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_043multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityA mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years awayAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyEra of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdSalim Ismail42.1%unknownunknownpending
234_022multi_vectorLabor/JobsConsulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
242_029multi_vectorLabor/JobsTypical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
238_053multi_vectorMacro/EconomyInnovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
240_033multi_vectorAIAI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeksSalim Ismail41.9%unknownunknownpending
238_052multi_vectorMarkets/Stocks$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Elon Musk41.7%unknownunknownpending
238_021multi_vectorAIMath, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AIAlex Wissner-Gross41.7%unknownunknownpending
230_038multi_vectorAIAI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
232_039multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
247_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityVirtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
238_060multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksEmad Mostaque41.5%unknownunknownpending
246_028multi_vectorAIBroad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed.Alex Wissner-Gross41.5%unknownunknownpending
238_002multi_vectorAIRising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insightsUnknown41.5%unknownunknownpending
244_012multi_vectorMarkets/StocksUber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointDara Khosrowshahi41.5%unknownunknownpending
SPC_022multi_vectorAI'2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c...Kevin Weil41.4%unknownunknownin_progress
245_038multi_vectorConsumerPeople buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Ben Lamm41.3%unknownunknownpending
239_023multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk40.9%unknownunknownpending
240_013multi_vectorAISam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMsSam Altman40.9%unknownunknownpending
247_021multi_vectorLabor/JobsNet job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomeratesAlex Wissner-Gross40.9%unknownunknownpending
230_036multi_vectorLabor/JobsNew job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers.Alex Wissner-Gross40.9%unknownunknownpending
243_028multi_vectorAuto/TransportJoby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027)Dara Khosrowshahi40.9%unknownunknownpending
237_027multi_vectorLabor/Jobs100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy.Alex Finn40.9%unknownunknownpending
237_023multi_vectorAIBaby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.Alex Wissner-Gross40.7%unknownunknownpending
238_066multi_vectorEnergyPete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsPete (audience, data center builder)40.7%unknownunknownpending
239_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBen Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creatureBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_015multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityColossal could theoretically create Pikachu (engineer novel designer organisms)Ben Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_010multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityBreaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
240_052multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityUploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the futureAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_034multi_vectorOtherWolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methodsBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_032multi_vectorOtherAnti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_031multi_vectorBiotech/Longevity99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadlyBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_013multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityArtificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction speciesBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
238_050multi_vectorOtherSci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck closeAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
229_024multi_vectorRoboticsFigure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve.Brett Adcock40.5%unknownunknownpending
238_032multi_vectorLabor/JobsEnd-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall'Alex Wissner-Gross40.3%unknownunknownpending
239_004multi_vectorAIxAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026Elon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
234_026multi_vectorAIAI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in monthsAlex Wissner-Gross40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsTesla output per employee will become very very highElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_032multi_vectorAIProgress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curvesElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
229_043multi_vectorRoboticsFigure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.Brett Adcock40.1%unknownunknownpending
238_006multi_vectorLabor/JobsCoders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Emad Mostaque40.1%unknownunknownpending
242_027multi_vectorAuto/TransportHyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humansSalim Ismail40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_032multi_vectorAIFigure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.Brett Adcock40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_003multi_vectorRoboticsFigure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Brett Adcock39.9%unknownunknownpending
244_028multi_vectorMacro/EconomyLabor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move inDara Khosrowshahi39.7%unknownunknownpending
237_018multi_vectorAIWe are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
230_008multi_vectorAIAI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
230_042multi_vectorAIA pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'.Salim Ismail39.6%unknownunknownpending
231_004multi_vectorAIThe solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
232_056multi_vectorAIEvery single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
238_022multi_vectorAIFrom here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over)Alex Wissner-Gross39.5%unknownunknownpending
239_029multi_vectorAIIntelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on EarthElon Musk39.5%unknownunknownpending
231_019multi_vectorOtherFeynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Alex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
238_005multi_vectorAIBy September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly freeAlex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
235_030multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Ray Kurzweil39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_031multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityEnhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
233_010multi_vectorEducationAlpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years.Joe Liemandt39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_026multi_vectorOtherOrganized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
234_041multi_vectorOther50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
230_015multi_vectorLabor/JobsFor the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
238_069multi_vectorGeopoliticsThe path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_011multi_vectorDefensePentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_009multi_vectorDefensePentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
233_018multi_vectorEducationAlpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Joe Liemandt39.1%unknownunknownpending
233_003multi_vectorEducationAny student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.MacKenzie Price39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_019multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_054multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
230_039multi_vectorEducationEducational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
230_032multi_vectorGeopoliticsNear future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
243_039multi_vectorRoboticsUber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, MannaDara Khosrowshahi39.1%unknownunknownpending
248_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityAlex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_025multi_vectorOtherReligion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_045multi_vectorGeopoliticsWhite House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
246_048multi_vectorAIAnthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_031multi_vectorAISamsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by ElonAlex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
241_041multi_vectorAIBiological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangersEric Schmidt38.9%unknownunknownpending
234_044multi_vectorAIIntelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQSalim Ismail38.8%unknownunknownpending
247_035multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeDario Amodei38.8%unknownunknownpending
233_021multi_vectorAIAI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.Joe Liemandt38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_047multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityFrontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross38.7%unknownunknownpending
236_032multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI has chance of fixing poverty globallyAndrew Yang38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_028multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI could automate 25% of US work hoursGoldman Sachs38.7%unknownunknownpending
244_025multi_vectorLabor/JobsOpen question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceDara Khosrowshahi38.7%unknownunknownpending
248_047multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMemory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
240_024multi_vectorAIAdvanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionateMarc Andreessen38.6%unknownunknownpending
236_039multi_vectorEnergyData centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersAlex Wissner-Gross38.5%unknownunknownpending
241_051multi_vectorAIAI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new thingsEric Schmidt38.3%unknownunknownpending
238_063multi_vectorLabor/JobsAutomating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
240_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyAI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
246_041multi_vectorEnergyData centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross38.2%unknownunknownpending
232_058multi_vectorAISolving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
233_006multi_vectorAICost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.Joe Liemandt37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_037multi_vectorSpaceBootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
248_002multi_vectorSpaceLEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_011multi_vectorAIJury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_003multi_vectorAIWithin 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAlex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_007multi_vectorAIKevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AIKevin Weil37.9%unknownunknownpending
246_042multi_vectorAIOn 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross37.8%unknownunknownpending
241_025multi_vectorSpaceElon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsElon Musk37.8%unknownunknownpending
246_017multi_vectorSpaceEuropa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Peter Diamandis37.7%unknownunknownpending
242_034multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Chamath Palihapitiya37.7%unknownunknownpending
230_023multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityReversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
233_012multi_vectorAIAI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.Joe Liemandt37.5%unknownunknownpending
232_048multi_vectorSpaceEarth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
245_037multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not)Ben Lamm37.5%unknownunknownpending
236_043multi_vectorEducationUniversities will become largest incubators on the planetAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
242_018multi_vectorAuto/TransportHuman driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstractionAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
238_024multi_vectorAIAI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras)Emad Mostaque37.2%unknownunknownpending
247_056multi_vectorLabor/JobsNet job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going awayAlex Wissner-Gross36.9%unknownunknownpending
248_018multi_vectorLabor/JobsYoung software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months.Alex Wissner-Gross36.9%unknownunknownpending
233_011multi_vectorEducationGovernment ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Joe Liemandt36.7%unknownunknownpending
242_030multi_vectorLabor/JobsNear-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobsAlex Wissner-Gross36.7%unknownunknownpending
239_010multi_vectorSpaceMass driver on the moon within 10 yearsElon Musk36.7%unknownunknownpending
248_007multi_vectorAIWe will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.Alex Wissner-Gross36.6%unknownunknownpending
242_041multi_vectorSpaceUnited Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similarAlex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
246_019multi_vectorSpaceInterstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans.Alex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
230_002multi_vectorLabor/JobsAI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor.Alex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
245_017multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityDisease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollarsBen Lamm36.4%unknownunknownpending
235_043multi_vectorDefenseAnthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Salim Ismail36.3%unknownunknownpending
239_028multi_vectorEnergyIntelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleElon Musk36.2%unknownunknownpending
247_014multi_vectorGeopoliticsPoliticization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross36.1%unknownunknownpending
246_018multi_vectorEnergyKiller app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
240_004multi_vectorAIA new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutesAlex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
239_022multi_vectorAIFuture AI will care about power/mass rather than human currencyElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
239_005multi_vectorAIAI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degreeElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
241_043multi_vectorAIASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadePeter Diamandis35.9%unknownunknownin_progress
246_016multi_vectorSpaceDragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Peter Diamandis35.6%unknownunknownpending
233_009multi_vectorEducationA motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.Joe Liemandt35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_047multi_vectorRoboticsPhysical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AIAlex Wissner-Gross35.5%unknownunknownpending
232_055multi_vectorAIWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.Peter Diamandis35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_017multi_vectorEnergyOptimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutSalim Ismail35.4%unknownunknownpending
231_013multi_vectorAIMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
247_017multi_vectorMacro/EconomySome form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
234_038multi_vectorReal EstateReal estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
244_029multi_vectorEnergyCombustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentDara Khosrowshahi35.4%unknownunknownpending
241_035multi_vectorAIMaybe one frontier AI company in IndiaEric Schmidt35.3%unknownunknownpending
239_021multi_vectorMacro/EconomyMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
236_001multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
240_021multi_vectorAIPost-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUsAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
245_002multi_vectorAIEvery company should or will be an AI companyBen Lamm35.1%unknownunknownpending
246_034multi_vectorAIThousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law.Alex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
248_029multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityRegime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason.Alex Wissner-Gross34.9%unknownunknownpending
234_043multi_vectorEducationHarvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueAlex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
233_019multi_vectorEducationAlpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Joe Liemandt34.8%unknownunknownpending
235_035multi_vectorAIApple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
240_030multi_vectorGeopoliticsTesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
233_004multi_vectorAIAI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months.Joe Liemandt34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_012multi_vectorAINeutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_033multi_vectorMarkets/StocksMeta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
245_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityNorthern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombsBen Lamm34.5%unknownunknownpending
232_024multi_vectorMacro/EconomySan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Alex Wissner-Gross34.3%unknownunknownpending
240_036multi_vectorEnergyTEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Peter Diamandis34.3%unknownunknownpending
232_059multi_vectorMacro/EconomyUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_022multi_vectorAIAGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling.Elon Musk34.2%unknownunknownpending
246_030multi_vectorMarkets/StocksDeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.Alex Wissner-Gross34.1%unknownunknownpending
242_055multi_vectorMarkets/StocksActivist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
247_005multi_vectorMarkets/StocksHarvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
248_034multi_vectorMarkets/StocksCapital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Salim Ismail34.0%unknownunknownpending
236_038multi_vectorEducationUniversities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesAlex Wissner-Gross33.2%unknownunknownpending
248_014multi_vectorAIIf China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.Alex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
247_012multi_vectorAIThe bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improvingAlex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
232_040multi_vectorAINick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.Nick Bostrom31.7%unknownunknownpending
238_044multi_vectorBiotech/LongevityMouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon SystemsAlex Wissner-Gross31.7%unknownunknownpending
242_020multi_vectorAuto/TransportCybercab to be priced at approximately $30KElon Musk31.4%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_002multi_vectorAIBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.Sam Altman31.4%unknownunknownpending
238_028multi_vectorMarkets/StocksAnthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Emad Mostaque31.2%unknownunknownpending
239_009multi_vectorSpacePeople will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk30.9%unknownunknownpending
230_022multi_vectorRoboticsElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk30.7%unknownunknownpending
238_056multi_vectorMacro/EconomyCapital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history)Alex Wissner-Gross30.1%unknownunknownpending
FUT_008multi_vectorGeopoliticsChina ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...Peter Zeihan30.0%unknownunknownpending
232_047multi_vectorSpaceMass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Elon Musk30.0%unknownunknownpending
234_036multi_vectorLabor/JobsJob displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominateAlex Wissner-Gross28.8%unknownunknownpending
239_008multi_vectorSpaceMoon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk28.8%unknownunknownpending
SEM_034multi_vectorAI/AGITrue artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.Demis Hassabis28.7%unknownunknownpending
AUT_018multi_vectorLabor/JobsLevel 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea...Jason Calacanis28.6%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_004multi_vectorAIAGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.Dario Amodei27.6%unknownunknownpending
240_053multi_vectorAIAI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaninglessPeter Diamandis23.5%unknownunknownpending
239_020multi_vectorAIAI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to doElon Musk22.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_003multi_vectorAIBy 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.Sam Altman22.8%unknownunknownpending
247_013multi_vectorLabor/Jobs99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI todayPeter Dannenberg22.2%unknownunknownpending
SEM_038multi_vectorAI/AGIDigital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.Elon Musk19.3%unknownunknownpending

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Predictions where this ticker is displaced
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