Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation

Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "WEF Future of Jobs 2025 projects 92M displaced by 2030",
      "notes": "HIT — WEF report formally projected 92M displacement; widely cited.",
      "source": "WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "World Economic Forum Future of Jobs 2025 report projects 92M jobs displaced and 170M created by 2030 (net +78M)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs estimates 6-7% US workforce displacement from AI",
      "notes": "HIT — Goldman Sachs published 6-7% (~11M) figure; entry-level (22-25 yo) employment in AI-exposed roles fell 16% from late 2022 to mid-2025.",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs — How Will AI Affect the US Labor Market?",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-will-ai-affect-the-us-labor-market",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2025-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs published research estimating ~11M US workers (6-7%) at risk of AI displacement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Entry-level job postings down 35% since Jan 2023",
      "notes": "HIT — Junior/entry-level postings down ~35% since Jan 2023.",
      "source": "ALM Corp — AI Job Displacement Statistics",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://almcorp.com/blog/ai-job-displacement-statistics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Indeed/LinkedIn job posting data shows entry-level roles down >30% from Jan 2023 baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First major US state implements AI-displacement transition program",
      "notes": "Cascade — Brookings reports 3.9% of workers (~5-6M) lack adaptive capacity.",
      "source": "State legislative tracking; major policy press",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2025-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major US state (CA, NY, TX, IL) creates formal AI-displacement-targeted retraining or transition program with >$100M funding"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BLS occupational projections incorporate AI impact",
      "notes": "HIT — BLS published occupational case studies on AI impacts.",
      "source": "BLS Monthly Labor Review — Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-16",
      "observed_date": "2025-08-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
     
... (truncated)