TK07thesis_killerthesis_killer
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
Prior probability
18.0%
Current probability
18.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 103
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Mass AI displacement triggers federal UBI, AI royalty tax, or worker protection laws that kick AI capex 20-30% out of US.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 18%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | CMQ_024 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator — Jensen Huang | 53.7% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.128 |
| killer | 239_001 Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years — Elon Musk | 37.7% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.124 |
| killer | 238_008 Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now — Salim Ismail | 35.5% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.105 |
| killer | SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by — Eric Schmidt | 69.7% | 0.050 | 0.720 | -0.098 |
| killer | IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensi — Salim Ismail | 22.8% | 0.050 | 0.380 | +0.093 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (103)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | SEM_048 | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). | AI/Corporate | — |
| killer | IND_021 | February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 237_028 | Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | CMQ_023 | Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but active 'AI factories' that consume electricity and data to manufacture tokens. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | CMQ_024 | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | SPC_001 | The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | Space | — |
| killer | SEM_046 | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero. | AI/Startups | — |
| killer | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| killer | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| killer | IND_011 | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | ROB_019 | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and into the physical economy, turning traditional hardware engineering into deeply integrated software-driven systems; relies on robot learning, autonomous science, and new inte... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | CMQ_048 | Agentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally within 2-3 years — decimating a massive sector of the service economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_040 | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Space | — |
| killer | 231_043 | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_030 | Economy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_034 | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_045 | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations. | Economy/Org | — |
| killer | 234_042 | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | IND_019 | 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_016 | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Robotics | — |
| killer | 236_034 | Rapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/robotics | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_001 | Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_042 | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_049 | US GDP per capita growing up up up because of AI | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_049 | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. | AI/Software | — |
| killer | 241_012 | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 244_006 | Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | SEM_037 | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_003 | Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_007 | US GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near future | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_009 | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_014 | Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_018 | UBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_023 | AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_015 | Government will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulence | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_022 | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_030 | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_024 | As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massive economic resurgence in the 'Face-to-Face' (F2F) economy will emerge — live-event production, in-person experiences, and physical gatherings rebound as synthetic-reality counterweig... | Consumer | — |
| killer | FUT_007 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 — Baby Boomer cohort transitions from high-velocity capital creators/consumers to capital-draining healthcare-dependent retirees; Gen X + Millennials lack numerical mass to rep... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 229_041 | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.' | Other | — |
| killer | 230_009 | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_027 | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_028 | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_031 | Crypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 232_042 | GDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 234_034 | Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_002 | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_005 | Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 236_025 | Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 238_008 | Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-state | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_032 | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_068 | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 241_058 | High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 243_027 | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_045 | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_028 | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 246_003 | Global economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_016 | Huge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesign | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_009 | Elon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_030 | S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | CMQ_008 | Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | INF_029 | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-based economics' — corporations will pay data-center operators directly for finalized outcomes (optimized supply chains, completed legal briefs, delivered marketing campaigns) rat... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | AI_021 | The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | SPC_029 | 'Idea Guys' vindication — because AI handles rote execution of complex engineering and software tasks, human vision and imagination become the only remaining scarcity in the economy; imagination replaces coding skill as the premium professional currency. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_045 | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | AI | — |
| killer | 247_021 | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_036 | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 243_028 | Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 231_042 | Job loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_030 | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_058 | Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_022 | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_057 | Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 237_027 | 100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_040 | Elon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desire | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_045 | Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_036 | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_030 | 1000x current economy would saturate human desires | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 239_027 | Diamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ years | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_040 | Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_018 | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_035 | GDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 230_002 | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_024 | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. | Energy | — |
| killer | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 247_056 | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | SPC_028 | Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_015 | Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_056 | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_044 | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating lunar economy and resource extraction as immediate commercial priority. | Space | — |
| killer | IND_025 | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | ROB_014 | White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading edge already visible with 1.1M+ US job cuts in 2025 where AI was explicitly cited as primary culprit. Without UBI ($1,000/month funded by AI-compute + VAT taxes), automation wav... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | AI_022 | 80% of all jobs globally face total disruption from AI automation by 2035 — Khosrowshahi's high-water-mark Labor-displacement claim, amplifying Yang's 'Great Disemboweling' to a decade-long full-economy transformation. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | IND_018 | Imminent rise of 'techno-feudalism' — hidden inextricable alliance between Artificial Superintelligence and State power; AI treasury companies will violently concentrate global wealth. As AI hyper-automates labor and degrades fiat currency through QE n... | Crypto | — |
| killer | 247_013 | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | CMQ_054 | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | IND_024 | Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | INF_028 | AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | SPC_024 | Graduating class of 2035 (Generation Alpha) could entirely bypass traditional terrestrial office environments, trading cubicles for high-paying AI-driven careers in outer space and orbital infrastructure. | Labor/Jobs | — |
Linked documents (6)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.665 | gdelt | blame game between ai moguls | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.634 | manifold | Will Bernie's 50% AI tax pass? | 6% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.606 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 | |
| 0.602 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 | |
| 0.588 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 | |
| 0.584 | gdelt | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "Mass AI displacement triggers federal UBI, AI royalty tax, or worker protection laws that kick AI capex 20-30% out of US.",
"time_window": "2027-2030",
"scenario_name": "Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)",
"affected_domains": "Markets (52), Labor (42), AI (8), Space (4), Auto (4)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Long reshoring ETFs",
"short concentrated AI basket",
"long gold"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Monthly — NFP, JOLTS, political polling on AI issue",
"affected_pred_count": 116,
"early_warning_signals": "Unemployment rate > 6.5%; Sanders/AOC caucus drafts AI tax bill; Yang 2.0 emerges",
"countervailing_factors": "AI creates net new jobs (historical pattern); productivity dividend reinvested",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_011",
"229_041",
"230_002",
"230_009",
"230_013",
"230_014",
"230_030",
"230_034",
"230_035",
"230_036",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"Reshoring plays",
"education (LRN rethink)",
"union-adjacent industrials"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"NVDA margin",
"META/GOOGL (AI tax)",
"PLTR",
"labor-displacement thesis"
]
}