A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl...

A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomously by non-human agents at a fraction of current cost. | First $1B autonomous-agent-only aerospace company valuation

Key catalyst: First $1B autonomous-agent-only aerospace company valuation

Watch events: Aerospace-specific agent-deployment metrics; inference cost curves

Epoch AI cost-per-inference tracking confirms >40x/yr deflation 2023-2026 — faster than 100x/2yr rate. Aerospace-specific agent adoption emerging.

Beneficiaries (23)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100x / 2yrs intelligence deflation",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Fourth Finn entry (INF_039 SMGI, CYB_003 Moltbook, CYB_011 ask-and-buy, CYB_012 recommendation poisoning). Specific aerospace-compute-deflation angle.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "specific quantitative deflation rate; coined framing",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform delivers 10x inference cost reduction",
      "source": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/space-computing — Vera Rubin announcement, GTC March 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/space-computing",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA discloses Vera Rubin GPU achieves 10x inference cost reduction vs prior gen on equivalent workloads"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Per-token AI prices collapse 90% since early 2025",
      "notes": "Direct evidence of intelligence hyper-deflation. Median 50x/yr decline supports '100x cheaper every 2 years' framing.",
      "source": "https://www.silicondata.com/blog/llm-cost-per-token",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.silicondata.com/blog/llm-cost-per-token",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Silicon Data / NVIDIA / aggregated benchmarks show 90%+ per-token cost decline vs early 2025 across frontier models"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI agent stack handles end-to-end aerospace mission planning task",
      "source": "https://aetherflux.medium.com/aetherflux-is-taking-ai-compute-to-orbit-with-nvidia-ba098e018210 — Aetherflux/NVIDIA orbital",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://aetherflux.medium.com/aetherflux-is-taking-ai-compute-to-orbit-with-nvidia-ba098e018210",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one aerospace company (SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Boeing, NASA, Anduril, Aetherflux) publicly demonstrates AI-agent stack autonomously completing mission planning, trajectory calc, OR CAD modeling at production-grade quality"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.3,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "S_AGI_FAST_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "F
... (truncated)