S_AGI_MID_2029scenarioagi_general_capability
AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path
Prior probability
35.0%
Current probability
35.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31
Edges in / out
0 / 118
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
AGI Phase B — outperform human experts on novel research questions. Kurzweil's 1999 prediction (computer passes Turing Test by 2029) remains stable across his 25 years of writing. If 2027 fast path fails, Kurzweil's 2029 is the next anchor. Resolution: Mar 2029.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_033 Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of hu — Andrew Yang | 55.0% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.265 |
| prereq | 238_064 AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g. — Dave Blundin | 50.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.247 |
| prereq | 236_030 AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform h — Andrew Yang | 49.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.238 |
| prereq | 238_026 Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up bein — Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.228 |
| prereq | 238_029 White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, a — Dave Blundin | 46.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.225 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (118)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 236_033 | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_030 | AI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and live | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_052 | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_046 | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_038 | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_030 | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_020 | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_033 | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_001 | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_032 | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_044 | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | COD_AI_004 | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_021 | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_007 | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_047 | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_016 | Enterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capex | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_012 | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_014 | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_022 | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_026 | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_024 | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_038 | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_030 | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_044 | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_045 | AI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economy | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_057 | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_004 | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_021 | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_018 | Trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicorn | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_071 | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_038 | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_034 | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_033 | Insecurity of human-authored code will be recognized before insecurity of human drivers is legally. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_032 | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_031 | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_027 | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_029 | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_043 | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | AI | — |
| prereq | 245_002 | Every company should or will be an AI company | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_049 | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_024 | XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_016 | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI expansion; any AI capability scaling ultimately routes through the speed at which new generation can be brought online. | Energy | — |
| correlate | CYB_019 | Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and anticipates the physical and thermodynamic dynamics of reality — serves as the critical foundational training ground for embodied agents, letting them experience billions of hours o... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CYB_012 | 'Recommendation poisoning' — deliberate corruption of the data lakes, training sets, and persistent memory banks that agents rely on for purchase/action decisions — emerges as the primary new cybersecurity-marketing vector, blurring the line between di... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_021 | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | SEM_002 | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_001 | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_002 | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| correlate | SPC_027 | A 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl... | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_001 | Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... | AI | — |
| correlate | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_005 | AI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12 months (by late 2026) — humans relegated to reviewer/editor role. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_001 | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of... | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_005 | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_013 | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance | AI | — |
| correlate | CYB_011 | Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... | Consumer | — |
| correlate | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_031 | AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | 237_026 | The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_038 | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| correlate | 239_032 | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_003 | AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... | AI | — |
| correlate | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_005 | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis to play sports or perform complex physical manipulations at amazing levels to truly mirror human brain architecture; software alone cannot achieve full ... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | FUT_002 | Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... | AI | — |
| correlate | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_013 | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. | AI | — |
| correlate | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| correlate | INF_072 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_012 | AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_011 | AGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEFORE reaching AGI — not concurrently, and not after. | AI | — |
| correlate | 229_044 | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | AI | — |
| correlate | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_004 | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | AI | — |
| correlate | 239_002 | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_004 | True AGI remains approximately a decade away (circa 2034) — AGI will NOT manifest as sudden uncontrollable explosion; will smoothly 'blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth'. Labor markets will adapt through traditional economic absorpt... | AI | — |
| correlate | 233_021 | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_006 | True autonomous agents are 'not anywhere close' — AGI and reliable long-horizon agents will require a full decade (2034 or beyond) to develop the holistic contextual reasoning and robust world models needed for unconstrained physical and digital enviro... | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_071 | Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved by 2029; humans will begin to merge with AI; computational intelligence will multiply a thousandfold, triggering a technological singularity where growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_008 | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_012 | True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... | AI | — |
| correlate | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_018 | By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_007 | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_003 | By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_001 | AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_073 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. | AI | — |
| correlate | SPC_026 | Humanity becoming a truly multiplanetary species is strictly an era BEYOND the singularity (post-2045) — Kurzweil asserts only after humanity has 'exhausted the ability of here on Earth to create more intelligence' will the focus shift definitively to ... | Space | — |
| correlate | CMQ_016 | Post-AGI (2027+), a decade of human-led algorithmic progress will be compressed into ~1 year or less as AGIs automate AI research. | AI | — |
| correlate | AI_008 | Once 2027 AGI arrives (AI researchers capable of autonomous research), the intelligence explosion begins — compressing roughly a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into a single year and culminating in Superintelligence by 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_001 | If hundreds of millions of AGI instances are deployed simultaneously by 2027 to automate the algorithms governing their own architectures, the industry will compress a decade of human-led algorithmic progress into less than a year — culminating in 'run... | AI | — |
| correlate | IND_022 | AGI arrives before 2029 (Turing test); true Singularity (ASI) occurs in 2040s — total human-machine convergence enabling: mental transfer from brain to brain, integration of nanobots into human bloodstream for perfect biological health maintenance, ach... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
| correlate | IND_028 | Third bridge toward indefinite human lifespans — achieved via synergy of AI and advanced nanotechnology — occurs in the 2030s; once AGI crosses into superintelligence, it will solve fundamental mechanisms of biological decay, leading to worldwide eradi... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "agi_phase_b",
"fork_key": "agi",
"dimension": "agi_general_capability",
"family_type": "mutually_exclusive",
"family_label": "AGI",
"family_order": 2,
"predictor_profile": [
"Kurzweil",
"Wissner-Gross"
],
"supporting_evidence": [
"Kurzweil 'Singularity is Near' (2005), updated 2024 — AGI 2029 stable",
"Metaculus AGI by 2030: ~55%"
],
"exclusive_within_dimension": true
}