CMQ_007predictionAIcorporate-revenue

Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.

Predictor: Dario Amodei

Prior probability

40.0%

Current probability

41.2%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31

Edges in / out

5 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | Anthropic enterprise ARR trajectory

Key catalyst: Anthropic enterprise ARR trajectory

Watch events: Anthropic quarterly ARR disclosures; enterprise contract values; margin expansion.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Anthropic hit $30B ARR April 2026; $100B+ ARR trajectory implied by contracts pipeline; 'trillions' requires 30x+ growth.

Predictor: Dario Amodei

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0363

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dario Amodei is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

1 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 8 pending

2026-03-31hitAnthropic ARR reaches $30B run-rate
How: Anthropic disclosed annualized revenue run-rate reaches $30B in March 2026 (1,400% YoY)
Source: https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/anthropic-30b-arr-passed-openai-revenue-2026conf 99%
Notes: HIT — Anthropic at $30B ARR (passed OpenAI per Sherwood/Information). Trillion still requires 33x growth in 2-3yr.
2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnthropic targets $100B ARR by year-end 2026
How: Anthropic confirms (publicly or via leaked plans) $100B ARR run-rate exit-2026 target
Source: https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/dealmaker/anthropic-hit-100-billion-annualized-revenue-year — How Anthropic could hit $100B ARRconf 65%
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAnthropic IPO at $380B+ valuation
How: Anthropic prices IPO at ≥$380B valuation (per Techi reporting on $60B raise plans)
Source: https://www.techi.com/anthropic-ipo/ — Anthropic IPO timeline analysisconf 40%
2027-02-26pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAmodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints
How: Amodei publicly tempers trillion-revenue framing citing 'forecast off by a year = bankrupt' fiscal caution
Source: https://fortune.com/2026/02/14/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-spending-capex-risk-ai-revenue-forecasts-bankruptcy/conf 40%
Notes: Already partial — Amodei's Feb 2026 'bankrupt' framing acknowledges fragility of trillion-trajectory.
2027-04-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-01-01 → 2027-10-31pendingFree cash flow positive by 2027
How: Anthropic reports first FCF-positive quarter; 2028 FCF guidance of ~$17B
Source: https://www.deepresearchglobal.com/p/anthropic-company-analysis-outlook-reportconf 55%
2027-01-01 → 2027-10-31pendingAnthropic ARR reaches $1T+ run-rate (resolution)
How: Anthropic discloses or media confirms ≥$1T annualized revenue (resolution criterion for 'trillions before 2030')
Source: Anthropic disclosuresconf 5%
Notes: Direct test of Amodei's claim within window. $30B → $1T = 33x in 18 months would be unprecedented; window closes 2027-10-31 well before 'before 2030' deadline.
2027-06-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-08-16pendingAnthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z41.2%+1.2pp

Network propagation: 40.0% → 41.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

11 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (11)

AI BBAI GTLB NVDA SOUN IBM META AMZN MSFT GOOGL ORCL

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_AGI_MID_2029	AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	—
correlate	S_AGI_FAST_2027	AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09	agi_general_capability	—
correlate	S_AGI_SLOW_2031	AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033	Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS	AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.797	manifold	Will Anthropic be acquired before the end of 2030?	20%	mentions	pending	2026-05-10
0.761	manifold	Max (Anthropic, OpenAI annualized revenue run rate) at end of 2027?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-03
0.750	manifold	Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?	14%	mentions	pending	2026-05-25
0.742	manifold	What will be Anthropic’s GAAP net income on their audited 2025 Income Statement?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.694	manifold	30T market cap company before 2030?	26%	mentions	pending	2026-05-26
0.678	manifold	Will MNX let people trade Anthropic futures before Anthropic goes public?	61%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.656	manifold	Will the United States unemployment rate exceed 30% any time before 2040?	30%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.646	manifold	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?	69%	mentions	pending	2026-05-14
0.645	manifold	Will a Historic Labor Strike occur in the United States before 2030?	27%	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.642	manifold	Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?	58%	mentions	pending	2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "trillions",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "caveats": "Assumes continued commercialization of agentic AI at enterprise scale; competitive moat preserved against OpenAI, Google, xAI.",
  "context": "Aggressive forward ARR guidance; implies compounding from Anthropic's $30B ARR April 2026 position.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "will; explicit trillions call; CEO",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "before 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic ARR reaches $30B run-rate",
      "notes": "HIT — Anthropic at $30B ARR (passed OpenAI per Sherwood/Information). Trillion still requires 33x growth in 2-3yr.",
      "source": "https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/anthropic-30b-arr-passed-openai-revenue-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/anthropic-30b-arr-passed-openai-revenue-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic disclosed annualized revenue run-rate reaches $30B in March 2026 (1,400% YoY)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic targets $100B ARR by year-end 2026",
      "source": "https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/dealmaker/anthropic-hit-100-billion-annualized-revenue-year — How Anthropic could hit $100B ARR",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/dealmaker/anthropic-hit-100-billion-annualized-revenue-year",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic confirms (publicly or via leaked plans) $100B ARR run-rate exit-2026 target"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic IPO at $380B+ valuation",
      "source": "https://www.techi.com/anthropic-ipo/ — Anthropic IPO timeline analysis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.techi.com/anthropic-ipo/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic prices IPO at ≥$380B valuation (per Techi reporting on $60B raise plans)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Amodei walks back trillion claim citing capital constraints",
      "notes": "Already partial — Amodei's Feb 2026 'bankrupt' framing acknowledges fragility of trillion-trajectory.",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/14/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-spending-capex-risk-ai-revenue-forecasts-bankruptcy/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/02/14/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-spending-capex-risk-ai-revenue-forecasts-bankruptcy/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Amodei publicly tempers trillion-revenue framing citing 'forecast off by a year = bankrupt' fiscal caution"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_ch
... (truncated)