S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033scenariohumanoid_deployment
Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033
Prior probability
10.0%
Current probability
10.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2033-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 39
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Mass consumer deployment, beyond 5y horizon. Adcock's longer-run vision of 'every household has a humanoid'.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 10%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (39)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | CYB_018 | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | CMQ_050 | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_005 | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_004 | AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. | AI | — |
| correlate | 229_012 | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_003 | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_017 | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 248_038 | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_019 | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_023 | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 234_032 | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_021 | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_008 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | INF_025 | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_007 | Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_051 | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_022 | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AI_030 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AI_007 | Technological singularity arrives by 2039 — computing capacity matches the human brain, AI processes the entirety of human knowledge, and human cognition begins to merge with machine intelligence via biological nanobots. | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_054 | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | SPC_023 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... | AI | — |
Linked documents (3)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.587 | manifold | Conditional on Manifest 2026 having fox-and-hedgehog shirts, how many of 20 random attendees will know the reference? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.556 | manifold | How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.552 | manifold | How many members will the Green Party of England and Wales have at the start of 2029? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotics_phase_r4",
"fork_key": "humanoid",
"dimension": "humanoid_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Humanoid deployment",
"family_order": 4,
"beyond_horizon": true,
"cumulative_milestone": true
}