← Cockpit
247_045predictionRoboticshumanoids

1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
32.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
8 / 7
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | This summer. I'm getting mine this summer. | Aug 2026 first deliveries; review cycle Q4 2026

Key catalyst: Aug 2026 first deliveries; review cycle Q4 2026

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
This summer. I'm getting mine this summer.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Same cluster — Peter restated summer 2026 as imminent April 14.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.655

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 32.2% → blend 32.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 32.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 32%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z32.2%+7.4pp
Network propagation: 24.8% → 32.2%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z24.8%-16.0pp
intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.409 blend=0.248 LLR=0.000 κ=0.88 w_in=0.60 humanoid_commercial_volume
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5766698637873985,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": 0.1,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": 0,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.3697669513039565,
  "bayes_factor": "1:1 (no signal)",
  "blend_reason": "blend 60% inside / 40% outside (TRF=0.577, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
  "inside_prior": 0.408597335548421,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0,
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Factory open, production live, but consumer ship cadence consistently described as Q3-Q4 2026, not summer specifically.",
      "adjusted_llr": 0
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.596331095348821,
  "outside_weight": 0.403668904651179,
  "posterior_prob": 0.2483457026460617,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "mentions",
      "status_change": "in_progress",
      "evidence_strength": "moderate",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": -0.04
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": -0.3697669513039565,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.408597335548421,
  "blended_posterior": 0.2483457026460617,
  "reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.9%+1.6pp
Network propagation: 39.2% → 40.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z39.2%-1.0pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.729 blend=0.392 LLR=1.386 κ=0.86 w_in=0.55 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.3%+7.2pp
Network propagation: 33.1% → 40.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z33.1%-7.8pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.331 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z40.9%+7.9pp
Network propagation: 33.0% → 40.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z33.0%-32.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.650 blend=0.330 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.650+0.196
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050+0.184
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050+0.173
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050+0.165
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.6500.050-0.022

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.143
prereq239_012
Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027Elon Musk
30.6%0.5000.050-0.091
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.047
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.035
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.027

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (7)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq239_012Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq235_032Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Robotics

Expected milestones (2)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Robotics 2026-12] ; BotQ production ramp to 12K units/yr. [247_045] Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count [239_033] Tesla Q2 2026 earnings; Optimus Fremont line start; unit cost disclosurepending
2026-12-311X first customer shipments of NEO planned for 2026pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.900codex_research_pack1X - NEO's Starting to Learn On Its Owncorroboratespending2026-01-12
0.900codex_research_pack1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026corroboratespending2026-04-30
0.676manifoldanother @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026?33%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.664manifoldAny new Claude Model Before May 16th?4%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.650manifoldWill I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?38%mentionspending2026-05-12
0.649manifoldWill @mayaofspring pass JLPT N1 in December 2026?63%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.641manifold▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in June 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]mentionspending2026-06-01
0.633manifoldWill 1mon (Max) wear a dress in 202671%mentionspending2026-05-25
0.607github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.1mentionspending2021-07-30
0.605manifoldClaude 5 released by End of September 2026?78%mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "This summer. I'm getting mine this summer",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "This summer. I'm getting mine this summer.",
  "conv_cues": "I'm getting mine",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Summer 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_045",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "235_019",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "239_012",
      "expected_date": "2027-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "240_037",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "247_043",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "235_032",
      "expected_date": "2031-09-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "236_021",
      "expected_date": "2032-12-15",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 3,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "source_refs": "1x.tech/discover/neo-home-robot; medium.com/@nordgardco",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-10-01",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14"
... (truncated)