SEM_008predictionAIAI-scaling
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
Predictor: Dario Amodei
Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
76.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2025-01-01 – 2025-08-31
Edges in / out
5 / 411
Tickers exposed
37
Prediction text
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | Frontier model training-run cost disclosures
Key catalyst: Frontier model training-run cost disclosures
Watch events: Anthropic/OpenAI compute-spend disclosures; leaked training run cost reports
Resolution evidence
Status: hit
Multiple reports indicate GPT-5/Claude Opus 4/Gemini 3 training runs each crossed $1-5B compute cost ranges late 2025; frontier runs approaching $10B estimated for 2026.
Predictor: Dario Amodei
κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0363
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dario Amodei is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
5 prob_history rows
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 76.9%
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
- 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 77%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z76.9%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 78.4% → 76.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z78.4%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 81.2% → 78.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z81.2%-4.6pp
Network propagation: 85.8% → 81.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z85.8%-6.2pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 85.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+18.8pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.812
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.18793000000000004,
"inside_posterior": 0.81207,
"validation_notes": "Multiple reports indicate GPT-5/Claude Opus 4/Gemini 3 training runs each crossed $1-5B compute cost ranges late 2025; frontier runs approaching $10B estimated for 2026.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.81207,
"resolution_evidence": "Multiple reports indicate GPT-5/Claude Opus 4/Gemini 3 training runs each crossed $1-5B compute cost ranges late 2025; frontier runs approaching $10B estimated for 2026.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.153 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.110 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.064 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.047 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.021 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.379 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.271 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.228 |
| prereq | 229_030 If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they coul — Brett Adcock | 17.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.221 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.190 |
Ticker exposure
37 ticker(s) linked
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (5)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (411)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 233_020 | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_015 | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_047 | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_001 | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_006 | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| prereq | 243_002 | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_020 | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_034 | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 237_025 | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| prereq | 241_026 | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_024 | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_011 | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_043 | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_046 | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_004 | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 237_002 | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_001 | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_018 | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_042 | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_016 | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_041 | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 244_032 | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_031 | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_057 | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Space | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_060 | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_056 | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_054 | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_050 | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_007 | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_018 | In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_014 | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 236_003 | Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_014 | Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_023 | AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_024 | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_016 | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_017 | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_005 | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_012 | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_017 | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_027 | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_028 | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_030 | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_036 | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_047 | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_049 | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_062 | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_013 | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_035 | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_038 | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_041 | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_043 | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 244_002 | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_006 | Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_023 | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_031 | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_035 | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Other | — |
| prereq | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_026 | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_027 | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_035 | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_020 | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | SEM_037 | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | SEM_049 | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. | AI/Software | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_008 | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_032 | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_033 | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_034 | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_027 | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_040 | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_041 | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_046 | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 229_022 | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_058 | High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_034 | Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_012 | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_061 | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_013 | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_028 | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_025 | Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_006 | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_015 | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_017 | Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_013 | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| prereq | 243_014 | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_015 | Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 243_027 | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 238_032 | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_003 | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_027 | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_033 | About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| prereq | 243_037 | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_045 | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_008 | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_025 | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_009 | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_005 | Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_028 | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 244_027 | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_006 | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_027 | 100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_005 | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_045 | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_039 | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 238_043 | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_049 | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_015 | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_038 | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_046 | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_046 | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_009 | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_021 | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_035 | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_051 | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_023 | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_036 | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_021 | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_027 | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_030 | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 243_028 | Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_004 | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_001 | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_043 | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_028 | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_006 | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_026 | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_027 | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_033 | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_032 | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 248_036 | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_038 | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_042 | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 245_035 | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 229_034 | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_023 | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_016 | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_018 | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| prereq | 248_031 | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_009 | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_010 | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_013 | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_045 | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_031 | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| prereq | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| prereq | 248_044 | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| prereq | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| prereq | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_012 | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_048 | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_004 | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 248_014 | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_018 | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 230_002 | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_056 | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_025 | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Other | — |
| prereq | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 246_030 | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 245_017 | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| prereq | 248_029 | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| prereq | 238_056 | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_035 | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_037 | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_013 | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Labor/Jobs | — |
Validations (1)
Resolution events
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Multiple reports indicate GPT-5/Claude Opus 4/Gemini 3 training runs each crossed $1-5B compute cost ranges late 2025; frontier runs approaching $10B estimated for 2026. |
Linked documents (4)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.630 | manifold | $10m prize for 100m record claimed in 2027 | 19% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.594 | manifold | Will Kamala announce a run in 2028 | 40% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.555 | manifold | Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026? | 7% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.554 | manifold | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software | 60% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$10B training run",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Amodei notes frontier models currently cost hundreds of millions to train; scaling-laws math dictates $10B individual training runs starting 2025.",
"to_year": 2025,
"conv_cues": "mathematical trajectory; will commence",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2025,
"timeframe": "2025",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
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... (truncated)