← Cockpit
229_043predictionRoboticsAI-timing

Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
40.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Um we really want to be like kind of allin with a smaller group of customers and really uh spend time with them uh integrate well into their facilities and you know do well.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
Um we really want to be like kind of allin with a smaller group of customers and really uh spend time with them uh integrate well into their facilities and you know do well.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.576

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 40.1% → blend 40.1% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-02-27hitBMW Spartanburg integration crosses 30,000-vehicle production support milestone (Figure 02 in active body shop)
    How: BMW Group press release or AMS coverage confirming Figure 02 supported ≥30,000 X3 production with documented operating hours
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-08-31pendingBMW Plant Leipzig pilot phase begins (first European Physical AI deployment)
    How: BMW press release confirming live pilot of Figure (or Figure-class humanoid) at Leipzig plant in production capacity, distinct from December 2025 lab test and April 2026 test deployment
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
  3. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSecond named industrial customer disclosed (beyond BMW; UPS / Fortune-100 manufacturer / 3PL)
    How: Figure or partner press release naming new commercial customer with paid deployment, not pilot LOI
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  4. 2026-12-31pendingFigure customer roster remains in single digits (lead-customer concentration check)
    How: Public Figure customer list / reporting shows ≤ ~5-8 named commercial customers, consistent with lead-customer rather than broad-distribution thesis
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  5. 2027-02-01 → 2027-08-31pendingFigure announces broad-distribution shift OR retains lead-customer model (resolution check)
    How: Figure CEO public statement or 10-K-style disclosure confirming whether company is still in lead-customer phase or moved to broad commercial distribution
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z40.1%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 38.9% → 40.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.9%+2.7pp
Network propagation: 36.2% → 38.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z36.2%+5.3pp
Network propagation: 30.9% → 36.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z30.9%+9.2pp
Network propagation: 21.7% → 30.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z21.7%-9.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.217 w_in=0.41 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z31.2%+9.6pp
Network propagation: 21.6% → 31.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z21.6%-28.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.216 w_in=0.41 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.054
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.500+0.031
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.024
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.017
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050-0.009

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.064
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.060
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.057
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.040
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.033

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.595manifoldWill MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?26%mentionspending2026-04-30
0.568manifoldDays I'll create a market in June?mentionspending2026-06-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "small group of customers",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Um we really want to be like kind of allin with a smaller group of customers and really uh spend time with them uh integrate well into their facilities",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "Um we really want to be like kind of allin with a smaller group of customers and really uh spend time with them uh integrate well into their facilities and you know do well.",
  "conv_cues": "really want to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next 6-12 months",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BMW Spartanburg integration crosses 30,000-vehicle production support milestone (Figure 02 in active body shop)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0455864EN/bmw-group-to-deploy-humanoid-robots-in-production-in-germany-for-the-first-time?language=en",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BMW Group press release or AMS coverage confirming Figure 02 supported ≥30,000 X3 production with documented operating hours"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BMW Plant Leipzig pilot phase begins (first European Physical AI deployment)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.bmwgroup.com/en/news/general/2026/humanoid-robot-in-leipzig.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-08-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BMW press release confirming live pilot of Figure (or Figure-class humanoid) at Leipzig plant in production capacity, distinct from December 2025 lab test and April 2026 test deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Second named industrial customer disclosed (beyond BMW; UPS / Fortune-100 manufacturer / 3PL)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://research.contrary.com/company/figure",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_
... (truncated)