Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)

Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Maybe three months ago. We're in the middle of recursive self-improvement now. And I I I would say my estimate of the San Francisco consensus, we're deep in the middle of recursive self-improvement right now. | Monthly capability deltas

Key catalyst: Monthly capability deltas

Maybe three months ago. We're in the middle of recursive self-improvement now. And I I I would say my estimate of the San Francisco consensus, we're deep in the middle of recursive self-improvement right now.

See 232_014.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "when are we going to see rec recursive self-improvement? And uh I kind of felt like he said like three years out. What's your answer to that? Maybe three months ago. We're in the middle of recursive self-improvement now... Almost every major Frontier lab has made it quite clear in their public announcements that all of the Frontier models... were largely designed and trained by their predecessors. That is by definition recursive self-improvement. We are there.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Maybe three months ago. We're in the middle of recursive self-improvement now. And I I I would say my estimate of the San Francisco consensus, we're deep in the middle of recursive self-improvement right now.",
  "conv_cues": "we're deep in the middle; by definition",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "Now (began ~Dec 2025)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-07",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "229_006",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "229_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "229_007",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "229_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "229_003",
      "expected_date": "2028-07-21",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affil
... (truncated)