A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.
Verbatim quote
history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30overdueOpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub starsHow: GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst repo to add >100k stars in <72 hoursHow: GitHub star-history.com snapshot or OctoLens Daily Trending shows a single repo gaining >=100,000 stars in any 72-hour windowSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-11-30pendingGitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growthHow: Annual Octoverse report shows at least 100% YoY increase in AI/LLM repos created and >300% increase in agent / tooling sub-categorySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-08-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing eventHow: GitHub Trust & Safety blog post or independent researcher publishes case study of millions of agent-driven stars on a single repo within hoursSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
- 2027-06-30pendingRecursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scaleHow: Anthropic, OpenAI, or independent project ships agent that autonomously merges >1,000 PRs across public repos in a single month per public dashboardSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.8084917928628333,
"kappa": 0.8438,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.43957823654543854,
"bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.391841471629376,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.8016099999999999,
"label": "OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-11/openclaw-open-source-ai-agent-viral-145k-github-stars/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.3250248853105856,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.4340557449960166,
"outside_weight": 0.5659442550039834,
"posterior_prob": 0.31764771398325103,
"posterior_logit": -0.7646031218560241,
"predictor_brier": 0.03413,
"inside_posterior": 0.31764771398325103,
"blended_posterior": 0.31764771398325103,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.3250248853105856,
"predictor_n_resolved": 11
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.050 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.030 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.010 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.086 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (8)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.631 | manifold | What percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.611 | manifold | Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030? | 14% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.570 | manifold | Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due? | 31% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-28 |
| 0.562 | manifold | Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick? | 79% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.548 | github_release | facebookresearch/nle v0.7.2 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-06-23 |
| 0.541 | github_release | facebookresearch/nle v0.6.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-06-04 |
| 0.538 | github_release | facebookresearch/nle v0.7.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-06-17 |
| 0.536 | github_release | facebookresearch/nle v0.7.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-06-08 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "hyperbolic/illustrative of expected acceleration",
"context": "I do expect the the growth pattern to uh to shorten even further to to the point where maybe in a few months or at say at maximum two years we we're having a similar discussion. history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.",
"conv_cues": "I do expect; maybe",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Within a few months to two years (by 2027)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-11/openclaw-open-source-ai-agent-viral-145k-github-stars/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hours",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.shareuhack.com/en/posts/github-trending-weekly-2026-04-13",
"expected_date": "2026-08-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "GitHub star-history.com snapshot or OctoLens Daily Trending shows a single repo gaining >=100,000 stars in any 72-hour window"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growth",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://blog.bytebytego.com/p/top-ai-github-repositories-in-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-11-30",
... (truncated)