← Cockpit
240_004predictionAIAI-timing

A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
36.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-082026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 36.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-04-30overdueOpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars
    How: GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFirst repo to add >100k stars in <72 hours
    How: GitHub star-history.com snapshot or OctoLens Daily Trending shows a single repo gaining >=100,000 stars in any 72-hour window
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-11-30pendingGitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growth
    How: Annual Octoverse report shows at least 100% YoY increase in AI/LLM repos created and >300% increase in agent / tooling sub-category
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  4. 2026-08-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst documented case of agent-bot-driven mass stargazing event
    How: GitHub Trust & Safety blog post or independent researcher publishes case study of millions of agent-driven stars on a single repo within hours
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
  5. 2027-06-30pendingRecursive-self-improvement coding agent reaches autonomous PR merge at scale
    How: Anthropic, OpenAI, or independent project ships agent that autonomously merges >1,000 PRs across public repos in a single month per public dashboard
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 36%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z36.0%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 34.6% → 36.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z34.6%+2.8pp
Network propagation: 31.8% → 34.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z31.8%-7.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.318 blend=0.318 LLR=-0.325 κ=0.84 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.8084917928628333,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.43957823654543854,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.391841471629376,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.8016099999999999,
      "label": "OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-11/openclaw-open-source-ai-agent-viral-145k-github-stars/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3250248853105856,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4340557449960166,
  "outside_weight": 0.5659442550039834,
  "posterior_prob": 0.31764771398325103,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7646031218560241,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.31764771398325103,
  "blended_posterior": 0.31764771398325103,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3250248853105856,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 40.4% → 39.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.050
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450+0.030
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.018
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.013
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.450+0.010

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.089
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.086
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.081
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.066
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.054

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.631manifoldWhat percentage uptime will the Unofficial GitHub Status Page show for the last 90 Days on May 31st, 2026?mentionspending2026-04-29
0.611manifoldWill Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?14%mentionspending2026-05-24
0.570manifoldWill I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?31%mentionspending2026-04-28
0.562manifoldWill the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?79%mentionspending2026-05-14
0.548github_releasefacebookresearch/nle v0.7.2mentionspending2021-06-23
0.541github_releasefacebookresearch/nle v0.6.1mentionspending2021-06-04
0.538github_releasefacebookresearch/nle v0.7.1mentionspending2021-06-17
0.536github_releasefacebookresearch/nle v0.7.0mentionspending2021-06-08

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "hyperbolic/illustrative of expected acceleration",
  "context": "I do expect the the growth pattern to uh to shorten even further to to the point where maybe in a few months or at say at maximum two years we we're having a similar discussion. history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "history will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes.",
  "conv_cues": "I do expect; maybe",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Within a few months to two years (by 2027)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenClaw breaks 300k GitHub stars",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://creati.ai/ai-news/2026-02-11/openclaw-open-source-ai-agent-viral-145k-github-stars/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub star history of OpenClaw repository documents passing 300,000 stars (already documented as having occurred per shareuhack and creati.ai)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First repo to add >100k stars in <72 hours",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.shareuhack.com/en/posts/github-trending-weekly-2026-04-13",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "GitHub star-history.com snapshot or OctoLens Daily Trending shows a single repo gaining >=100,000 stars in any 72-hour window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GitHub Octoverse 2026 reports continued >150% YoY LLM-repo growth",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://blog.bytebytego.com/p/top-ai-github-repositories-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      
... (truncated)