ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | we're going to get to ASI at some point, whether it's 2 years out, 5 years out, some place in this next decade

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

we're going to get to ASI at some point, whether it's 2 years out, 5 years out, some place in this next decade

Range 2028-2035. SF consensus (Schmidt, Amodei, Hassabis, Altman) all cluster 2026-2030. Peter's range is broad enough to be highly likely.

Beneficiaries (14)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2-10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "range of timelines",
  "context": "we're going to get to ASI at some point, whether it's 2 years out, 5 years out, some place in this next decade",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "we're going to get to ASI at some point, whether it's 2 years out, 5 years out, some place in this next decade",
  "conv_cues": "at some point",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028-2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "229_013",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": "229_006",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "229_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "229_007",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "229_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "229_043",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier AI lab publicly claims AGI-level capability on a recognized benchmark (METR HCAST, ARC-AGI-2, or successor)",
      "source": "Dario Amodei: 'powerful AI by 2026-2027'; Sam Altman 'few thousand days'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind claiming AGI or 'expert-level across all cognitive domains' with benchmark scores published; verified by third-party (METR/Apollo Research)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI system independently produces a peer-reviewed scientific discovery accepted to a top-tier venue without human co-authorship beyond supervision",
      "source": "Sakana AI Scientist; Google Co-Scientist precedents",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Publication in Nature/Science/PNAS or NeurIPS/ICML where AI system is s
... (truncated)