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237_025predictionAIAI-timing

We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source

Prior probability
70.0%
Current probability
59.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.

Verbatim quote

From episode "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer"
I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 70%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 59.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-03-11hitMusk confirms 'hard takeoff right now' at same summit
    How: Elon Musk publicly states AI is in hard takeoff phase at a major venue (Abundance Summit, X spaces, earnings call)
    Source: https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026conf 99%
  2. 2026-03-12hitDiamandis publicly declares 'we are in the singularity' at Abundance Summit 2026
    How: Peter Diamandis states publicly (Abundance Summit, podcast, or blog) that singularity is in progress, not future-dated to 2040s
    Source: https://www.teamday.ai/ai/diamandis-frontier-labs-war-singularityconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Diamandis stated singularity arrived ~2020 at Abundance Summit 2026.
  3. 2026-04-26hitICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshop
    How: ICLR 2026 holds its dedicated AI-with-Recursive-Self-Improvement workshop in Rio de Janeiro
    Source: https://recursive-workshop.github.io/conf 99%
  4. 2026-05-01 → 2026-11-30pendingFrontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 month
    How: An AI lab publishes a result where AI-driven self-improvement loop produces >=10% capability gain (benchmark) within a single month
    Source: OpenReview / lab blog postsconf 50%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026
    How: At least 3 of [WSJ, NYT, Economist, FT, WaPo] publish a feature article explicitly arguing singularity is in progress
    Source: Major media archivesconf 55%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 59%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z59.4%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 60.7% → 59.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z60.7%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 62.7% → 60.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z62.7%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 65.6% → 62.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z65.6%-4.4pp
Network propagation: 70.0% → 65.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.7000.050-0.071
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.7000.050-0.061
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.7000.050-0.050
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.7000.050-0.042
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.700+0.041

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.076
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.068
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.043
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.030
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.029

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.659manifoldWill I be alive at the end of 2029?91%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.657manifoldWill I have another peak moment in the next 5 years?36%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.654manifoldTrump goes to space in 2028? [Polymarket]7%mentionspending2026-05-28
0.641polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?14%mentionspending2025-11-25
0.637manifoldWill Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?11%mentionspending2026-05-25
0.621polymarketWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?0%mentionspending2026-04-20
0.617manifoldbefore 2035, will anyone give a UN speech in toki pona?9%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.609polymarketJeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?2%mentionspending2025-12-29
0.599polymarketWill Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?0%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.592polymarketWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?0%mentionspending2026-05-09

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP73cGLQmCU",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.",
  "conv_cues": "right now; insane",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 (now)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk confirms 'hard takeoff right now' at same summit",
      "source": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-11",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly states AI is in hard takeoff phase at a major venue (Abundance Summit, X spaces, earnings call)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Diamandis publicly declares 'we are in the singularity' at Abundance Summit 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — Diamandis stated singularity arrived ~2020 at Abundance Summit 2026.",
      "source": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/diamandis-frontier-labs-war-singularity",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.teamday.ai/ai/diamandis-frontier-labs-war-singularity",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peter Diamandis states publicly (Abundance Summit, podcast, or blog) that singularity is in progress, not future-dated to 2040s"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshop",
      "source": "https://recursive-workshop.github.io/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
... (truncated)