We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#237 "OpenClaw Explained: Baby AGI, Security Threats, Mac Mini Became Everyone's Supercomputer" · source
Prediction text
We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.
Verbatim quote
I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-11hitMusk confirms 'hard takeoff right now' at same summitHow: Elon Musk publicly states AI is in hard takeoff phase at a major venue (Abundance Summit, X spaces, earnings call)Source: https://www.teamday.ai/ai/elon-musk-hard-takeoff-abundance-summit-2026conf 99%
- 2026-03-12hitDiamandis publicly declares 'we are in the singularity' at Abundance Summit 2026How: Peter Diamandis states publicly (Abundance Summit, podcast, or blog) that singularity is in progress, not future-dated to 2040sSource: https://www.teamday.ai/ai/diamandis-frontier-labs-war-singularityconf 99%Notes: HIT — Diamandis stated singularity arrived ~2020 at Abundance Summit 2026.
- 2026-04-26hitICLR 2026 hosts first-ever Recursive Self-Improvement workshopHow: ICLR 2026 holds its dedicated AI-with-Recursive-Self-Improvement workshop in Rio de JaneiroSource: https://recursive-workshop.github.io/conf 99%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-11-30pendingFrontier benchmarks show recursive AI gain of >=10% in <1 monthHow: An AI lab publishes a result where AI-driven self-improvement loop produces >=10% capability gain (benchmark) within a single monthSource: OpenReview / lab blog postsconf 50%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMainstream press declares 'singularity already begun' in 2026How: At least 3 of [WSJ, NYT, Economist, FT, WaPo] publish a feature article explicitly arguing singularity is in progressSource: Major media archivesconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.061 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.700 | +0.041 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.076 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.068 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.043 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.030 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.029 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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"context": "I made a 25- year commitment to running the abundance summit. Um, and I I did it early on in 20 2012 um expecting that the singularity would be out in 2040s and the abundance summit would would go through 2037. So, I'd be safe. Oh, no, no, no, no. It's We're in the midst of the singularity right now. It's insane.",
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... (truncated)