ACN
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Cap tier
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Approx cap
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Bull scenarios
1
Adverse scenarios
713
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 714 public links lack move; 0 lack probability
Bull scenarios (1)
Predictions where this ticker benefits
| Pred | Role | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COD_AI_003 | multi_vector | Geopolitics | EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay | Codex Research Pack | 39.7% | unknown | unknown | pending |
Adverse scenarios (713)
Predictions where this ticker is displaced
| Pred | Domain | Prediction | Predictor | Current | Move | Impact | Mechanism |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMQ_032 | Macro/Economy | Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of human progress away from human cognition and toward computational throughput. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 75.0% | unknown | unknown | Near-zero marginal cost of cognition collapses legacy knowledge-services pricing floors; professional-services ARPU compresses. |
| SEM_005 | AI/Infrastructure | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | Sam Altman | 72.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| CMQ_021 | Macro/Economy | AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroeconomic variable influencing global GDP, credit markets, and industrial expansion. | Morgan Stanley | 71.4% | unknown | unknown | AI as productivity shock erodes service-sector margins and white-collar wage premium concurrently. |
| SEM_047 | AI/Hardware | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | Jimmy Ba | 70.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_022 | AI/Architecture | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | Dave Blundin | 64.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_033 | Biotech/Longevity | Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decade | Demis Hassabis | 62.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_020 | AI | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 60.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_011 | AI | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | Dave Blundin | 60.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_003 | Labor/Jobs | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Dave Blundin | 59.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_025 | AI | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | Peter Diamandis | 59.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_034 | Biotech/Longevity | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Dario Amodei | 59.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_021 | Consumer | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Peter Diamandis | 59.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_011 | Markets/Stocks | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Dario Amodei | 59.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| INF_041 | Education | K-12 education will be rebuilt from first principles using AI systems — institutions like Alpha School shifting from rote white-collar training toward systems-thinking, AI-human symbiosis, and management of intelligence platforms. | Joe Liemandt / MacKenzie Price | 58.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 231_031 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Peter Diamandis | 58.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_028 | Biotech/Longevity | Lab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental option | Peter Diamandis | 57.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_054 | AI | ASI will reinvent patent and copyright practices | Peter Diamandis | 57.1% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| SEM_002 | AI | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 55.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_033 | AI/Physics | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 55.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_005 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Peter Diamandis | 55.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_046 | AI | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_004 | Media/Ads | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_011 | Labor/Jobs | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_012 | Auto/Transport | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_044 | Macro/Economy | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_016 | Education | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | MacKenzie Price | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_032 | Markets/Stocks | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_041 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Peter Diamandis | 55.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_026 | Other | Future will be very entertaining | Elon Musk | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 233_002 | Education | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_026 | Education | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_017 | Labor/Jobs | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_041 | Geopolitics | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_011 | Geopolitics | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_018 | Energy | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Eric Schmidt | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_001 | Labor/Jobs | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_004 | Consumer | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_043 | Labor/Jobs | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_047 | Macro/Economy | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_044 | Education | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_022 | Real Estate | Personal garages at home will disappear | Peter Diamandis | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_033 | AI | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | Andrew Yang | 55.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| SEM_001 | AI/Compute | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 54.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_018 | AI | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | Eric Schmidt | 54.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_002 | AI | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | Peter Diamandis | 54.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_001 | AI | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | Peter Diamandis | 54.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_017 | AI | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | Eric Schmidt | 54.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_007 | AI | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | San Francisco AI community | 54.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_049 | Auto/Transport | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 54.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_005 | AI | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | Peter Diamandis | 54.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_013 | Auto/Transport | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Peter Diamandis | 54.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_014 | AI | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | Peter Diamandis | 54.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_044 | Auto/Transport | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Peter Diamandis | 54.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_056 | AI | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | Peter Diamandis | 54.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_024 | Space | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Eric Schmidt | 54.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_026 | Space | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Eric Schmidt | 54.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_054 | Space | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Peter Diamandis | 54.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_059 | Energy | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Peter Diamandis | 53.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_048 | AI | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | Peter Diamandis | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_029 | AI | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_043 | Labor/Jobs | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_060 | Media/Ads | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Peter Diamandis | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_041 | Labor/Jobs | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_039 | Crypto | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_007 | Education | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Joe Liemandt | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_034 | Energy | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Dave Blundin | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_060 | Space | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Peter Diamandis | 53.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_050 | Macro/Economy | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Dave Blundin | 53.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_048 | Macro/Economy | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Peter Diamandis | 53.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_014 | Auto/Transport | AV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offer | Dara Khosrowshahi | 52.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_034 | Other | Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite | Dara Khosrowshahi | 52.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_030 | Other | Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world | Dara Khosrowshahi | 52.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_008 | Other | If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up | Dara Khosrowshahi | 52.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_022 | Energy | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Peter Diamandis | 52.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_044 | Energy | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Eric Schmidt | 52.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_026 | AI | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | Dave Blundin | 52.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_010 | AI | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | Peter Diamandis | 52.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_025 | AI | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | Peter Diamandis | 52.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_013 | Macro/Economy | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Dave Blundin | 52.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_033 | Auto/Transport | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Peter Diamandis | 51.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_035 | AI | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | Peter Diamandis | 51.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_005 | AI | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | Dave Blundin | 51.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_055 | Space | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Peter Diamandis | 51.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_012 | AI | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | Peter Diamandis | 51.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_019 | AI | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | Eric Schmidt | 51.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_019 | AI | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | Ben Horowitz | 51.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_014 | AI | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | Sam Altman | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_017 | Labor/Jobs | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_026 | AI | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | Sam Altman | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_024 | AI | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | Peter Diamandis | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_032 | Biotech/Longevity | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Peter Diamandis | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_043 | Auto/Transport | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Peter Diamandis | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_062 | AI | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_023 | Labor/Jobs | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Dara Khosrowshahi | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_036 | Space | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Peter Diamandis | 51.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_016 | Energy | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_009 | Labor/Jobs | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Eric Schmidt | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_010 | Macro/Economy | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Eric Schmidt | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_012 | Markets/Stocks | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Salim Ismail | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_012 | Geopolitics | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_006 | Media/Ads | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Peter Diamandis | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_059 | Labor/Jobs | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Peter Diamandis | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_021 | Media/Ads | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_046 | Consumer | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_031 | Macro/Economy | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_048 | Education | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Eric Schmidt | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_037 | Labor/Jobs | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_024 | Real Estate | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_046 | Macro/Economy | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_036 | Media/Ads | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Peter Diamandis | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_063 | Geopolitics | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Eric Schmidt | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_033 | Markets/Stocks | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_028 | Consumer | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_016 | Education | College premium is quickly evaporating | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_044 | Geopolitics | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Peter Diamandis | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_042 | Consumer | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_027 | Macro/Economy | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Andrew Yang | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_026 | Labor/Jobs | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Peter Diamandis | 50.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_064 | Labor/Jobs | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Dave Blundin | 50.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_027 | AI | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | Sam Altman | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_049 | AI | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | Eric Schmidt | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_005 | AI | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | Salim Ismail | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_036 | AI | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | Eric Schmidt | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_035 | Other | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Dara Khosrowshahi | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_047 | Education | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Eric Schmidt | 50.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_006 | AI | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 50.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_013 | Geopolitics | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Andrew Yang | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_008 | AI | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | Peter Diamandis | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_019 | Auto/Transport | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Peter Diamandis | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_017 | Other | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Elon Musk | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 235_047 | Geopolitics | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Dave Blundin | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_040 | AI | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | Peter Diamandis | 50.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_014 | AI | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | Sam Altman | 50.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_010 | Macro/Economy | 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day | Andrew Yang | 50.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_034 | Macro/Economy | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 247_030 | AI | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_021 | AI | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | Peter Diamandis | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_015 | Labor/Jobs | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_005 | AI | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_060 | AI | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_048 | Labor/Jobs | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Dave Blundin | 50.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_017 | Energy | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 50.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| IND_002 | Education | Educational systems must pivot from teaching skill acquisition and execution to teaching orchestration of agentic swarms and discovery of purpose — value accrues to individuals who master AI orchestration over traditional knowledge work; rendering trad... | Alex Finn | 50.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 247_055 | AI | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | Dave Blundin | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_047 | Energy | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_001 | AI | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | Eric Schmidt | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_020 | AI | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | Peter Diamandis | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_046 | Real Estate | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Peter Diamandis | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_018 | Auto/Transport | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_004 | Auto/Transport | Race car driving will persist as a sport | Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_055 | Macro/Economy | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Peter Diamandis | 49.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_023 | Labor/Jobs | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Peter Diamandis | 49.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_020 | Labor/Jobs | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Dave Blundin | 49.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_053 | Labor/Jobs | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_035 | Markets/Stocks | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_010 | Defense | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_051 | Energy | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_042 | AI | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_023 | AI | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_025 | Geopolitics | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_035 | Geopolitics | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_024 | Real Estate | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_039 | Real Estate | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_062 | Labor/Jobs | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_036 | AI | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_012 | Labor/Jobs | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_037 | Consumer | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_010 | AI | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_006 | AI | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_046 | Space | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_047 | Labor/Jobs | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_049 | Markets/Stocks | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_004 | Labor/Jobs | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_013 | Markets/Stocks | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_003 | AI | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_006 | Macro/Economy | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_050 | AI | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_008 | AI | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_028 | Space | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_014 | AI | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_052 | Macro/Economy | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_051 | AI | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_030 | Geopolitics | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_016 | AI | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_045 | AI | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | Eric Schmidt | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_044 | Markets/Stocks | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_010 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_052 | AI | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_004 | AI | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_020 | Consumer | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_022 | Consumer | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_028 | Macro/Economy | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_005 | AI | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_012 | AI | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | Dave Blundin | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_023 | Biotech/Longevity | 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable | Dr. Don Mucalem | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_037 | AI | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | Eric Schmidt | 49.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_023 | Energy | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Eric Schmidt | 49.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_033 | Space | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Peter Diamandis | 49.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_049 | Labor/Jobs | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Dave Blundin | 49.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_033 | Labor/Jobs | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Dave Blundin | 49.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_016 | Auto/Transport | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Dara Khosrowshahi | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_005 | AI | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_030 | Energy | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Eric Schmidt | 49.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_023 | AI | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | Dave Blundin | 49.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_050 | Labor/Jobs | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Dave Blundin | 48.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_005 | AI | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decade | Demis Hassabis | 48.8% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 248_013 | AI | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | Dave Blundin | 48.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_020 | Energy | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Eric Schmidt | 48.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_016 | AI | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | Dave Blundin | 48.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_029 | Other | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_050 | AI | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_035 | AI | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | Peter Diamandis | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_018 | Auto/Transport | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Dave Blundin | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_020 | Geopolitics | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Ben Horowitz | 48.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_040 | Consumer | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_032 | Markets/Stocks | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_017 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Peter Diamandis | 48.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_006 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_021 | Auto/Transport | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Dave Blundin | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 243_006 | Auto/Transport | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Dara Khosrowshahi | 48.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_021 | Space | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Dave Blundin | 48.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_006 | AI | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | Peter Diamandis | 48.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_023 | Energy | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Eric Schmidt | 47.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_031 | AI | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 47.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_041 | Consumer | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Dara Khosrowshahi | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_007 | Robotics | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Brett Adcock | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_029 | Consumer | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Dara Khosrowshahi | 47.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_017 | Labor/Jobs | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Dave Blundin | 47.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_003 | AI | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | Eric Schmidt | 47.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_036 | Space | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 47.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_003 | AI | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | Elon Musk | 47.4% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 236_029 | AI | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | Andrew Yang | 47.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_035 | Markets/Stocks | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Dave Blundin | 47.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_033 | AI | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | Eric Schmidt | 47.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_019 | Markets/Stocks | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Dave Blundin | 47.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_055 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Dave Blundin | 46.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_029 | Labor/Jobs | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Dave Blundin | 46.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_012 | Labor/Jobs | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Alex Finn | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_013 | AI | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | Jimmy Ba | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_025 | AI | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Sam Altman | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_046 | AI | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | Dave Blundin | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_046 | AI | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_009 | Geopolitics | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Salim Ismail | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_008 | AI | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | Jack Dorsey | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_015 | Labor/Jobs | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Unnamed tech CEO | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| IND_019 | Labor/Jobs | 2026 is the year AI's impact on workers fundamentally comes into focus — near-term 4% net reduction in jobs across the 5 sectors most exposed to AI, heavily targeting entry-level positions; but labor disruption increases returns for firms that successf... | Morgan Stanley | 46.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 244_007 | Real Estate | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_011 | Markets/Stocks | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Salim Ismail | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_050 | Macro/Economy | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Andrew Yang | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_022 | Labor/Jobs | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Salim Ismail | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_029 | AI | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | Dave Blundin | 46.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_034 | Energy | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Morgan Stanley | 46.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_010 | Markets/Stocks | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Dave Blundin | 46.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_040 | AI | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | Eric Schmidt | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_006 | Robotics | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Brett Adcock | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_034 | AI | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | Eric Schmidt | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_032 | AI | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | Eric Schmidt | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_006 | AI | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | Salim Ismail | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_024 | Other | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| AI_021 | Labor/Jobs | The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... | Andrew Yang | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 246_036 | AI | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | Peter Diamandis | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_052 | Macro/Economy | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Peter Diamandis | 46.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_006 | Macro/Economy | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Andrew Yang | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_022 | Labor/Jobs | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Dara Khosrowshahi | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_035 | Labor/Jobs | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Andrew Yang | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_034 | AI | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | Ben Horowitz | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_004 | Labor/Jobs | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Dave Blundin | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_023 | AI | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | Ben Horowitz | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_025 | Robotics | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Brett Adcock | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_039 | AI | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | Eric Schmidt | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_011 | Geopolitics | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Andrew Yang | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_008 | AI | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | Ben Horowitz | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_036 | Biotech/Longevity | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Ben Horowitz | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_048 | AI | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | Salim Ismail | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_003 | AI | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | Alex Finn | 46.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_030 | AI | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_020 | AI | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_052 | AI | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_041 | AI | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | Dave Blundin | 46.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_041 | Labor/Jobs | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_032 | Labor/Jobs | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_065 | Labor/Jobs | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_029 | AI | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_018 | Macro/Economy | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_024 | AI | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_017 | Auto/Transport | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_016 | Auto/Transport | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_011 | AI | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_053 | AI | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | Ben Horowitz | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_026 | Media/Ads | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_006 | AI | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_043 | Space | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Dave Blundin | 46.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_013 | AI | Frontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advance | Peter Diamandis | 46.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 232_025 | Macro/Economy | Massive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates. | Elon Musk | 46.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 234_031 | Auto/Transport | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Dave Blundin | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_021 | Auto/Transport | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Zipline | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_025 | Biotech/Longevity | AI will solve back pain | Elon Musk | 45.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 232_009 | AI | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | Ben Horowitz | 45.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_001 | AI | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | Dave Blundin | 45.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_027 | Labor/Jobs | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_035 | Energy | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Meta | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_016 | Macro/Economy | Huge backlash against AI abundance without institutional redesign | Salim Ismail | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 244_026 | Labor/Jobs | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 45.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_053 | Auto/Transport | New car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilization | Salim Ismail | 45.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_039 | Space | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_009 | AI | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_025 | Markets/Stocks | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Dave Blundin | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_035 | AI/Cognition | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | Eric Schmidt | 45.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_004 | AI | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_025 | Real Estate | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_024 | AI | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 233_014 | Biotech/Longevity | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_013 | AI | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | Eric Schmidt | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| SEM_021 | AI/China | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_009 | Geopolitics | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_050 | AI | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_034 | Consumer | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_017 | Markets/Stocks | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Alex Finn | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_015 | AI | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_023 | Macro/Economy | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_022 | AI | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_019 | AI | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_007 | Media/Ads | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_015 | Labor/Jobs | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Alex Finn | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_050 | Markets/Stocks | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_045 | AI | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_009 | Defense | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_028 | AI | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_002 | AI | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_006 | AI | AI will solve everything including longevity | Elon Musk | 45.4% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 236_044 | Education | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Salim Ismail | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_041 | AI | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_022 | Markets/Stocks | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_054 | Macro/Economy | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Peter Diamandis | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_007 | Geopolitics | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Dave Blundin | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_045 | Biotech/Longevity | Eon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possible | Alex Wissner-Gross | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_015 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Peter Diamandis | 45.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_010 | AI | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | Dave Blundin | 45.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_008 | Biotech/Longevity | More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus | Ben Lamm | 45.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_001 | Biotech/Longevity | Synthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human history | Ben Lamm | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_030 | Biotech/Longevity | Humans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental change | Ben Lamm | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_043 | Biotech/Longevity | Breaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface area | Ben Lamm | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_031 | Other | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Salim Ismail | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_020 | Other | Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry | Ben Lamm | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_021 | Biotech/Longevity | Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time | Ben Lamm | 45.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_047 | Energy | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Emad Mostaque | 44.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_006 | AI | Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | Peter Diamandis | 44.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_057 | Robotics | Elon Musk believes robot building robot is imminent | Elon Musk | 44.8% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_019 | Labor/Jobs | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_042 | Markets/Stocks | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Peter Diamandis | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_025 | AI | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | Emad Mostaque | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_049 | Energy | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_017 | Auto/Transport | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_059 | Auto/Transport | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_030 | Auto/Transport | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Dave Blundin | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_054 | AI | Terafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500B | Peter Diamandis | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_009 | Biotech/Longevity | Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption | Peter Diamandis | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_001 | Auto/Transport | Technology will always be a part of the human driving experience | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_045 | Macro/Economy | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Peter Diamandis | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_055 | AI | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | Dave Blundin | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_025 | AI | Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | Peter Diamandis | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_008 | Labor/Jobs | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Salim Ismail | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_048 | Geopolitics | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Eric Schmidt | 44.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_004 | Auto/Transport | Uber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safe | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_060 | AI | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 44.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_037 | Auto/Transport | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Salim Ismail | 44.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_046 | Energy | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | 44.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_026 | Auto/Transport | Exciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 44.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_007 | AI | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | Eric Schmidt | 44.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_038 | AI | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | Dave Blundin | 44.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_019 | Robotics | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Andrew Yang | 44.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_010 | Geopolitics | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Salim Ismail | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_001 | Geopolitics | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Salim Ismail | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_042 | Geopolitics | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Eric Schmidt | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_001 | AI | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production | Elon Musk | 43.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 229_004 | Geopolitics | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Brett Adcock | 43.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_024 | Labor/Jobs | Financial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basis | Salim Ismail | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_018 | Macro/Economy | Universal High Income will be implemented | Elon Musk | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 237_022 | AI | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | Alex Finn | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_012 | Geopolitics | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Ben Horowitz | 43.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_002 | AI | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest | Elon Musk | 43.6% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_026 | AI | Every attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerant | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_040 | Robotics | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Dave Blundin | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_011 | AI | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | Alex Finn | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_047 | AI | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_029 | Labor/Jobs | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_031 | AI | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_046 | AI | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_016 | Markets/Stocks | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Alex Finn | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_006 | AI | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_013 | Macro/Economy | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Alex Finn | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_032 | AI | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_027 | AI | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_028 | AI | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_039 | AI | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_029 | AI | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_046 | Media/Ads | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_001 | AI | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_023 | AI | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | PolyMarket | 43.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_008 | AI | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | Eric Schmidt | 43.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_014 | Auto/Transport | Human driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening out | Salim Ismail | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_038 | AI | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | Eric Schmidt | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 230_046 | AI | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | Dave Blundin | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_024 | Biotech/Longevity | Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person | Elon Musk | 43.3% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_016 | Labor/Jobs | Tesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcount | Elon Musk | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 242_046 | AI | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | Dave Blundin | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_007 | AI | Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system | Elon Musk | 43.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 237_010 | Crypto | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Alex Finn | 43.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_032 | Crypto | Crypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed. | Ben Horowitz | 43.1% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 246_053 | AI | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | Dave Blundin | 42.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_019 | Macro/Economy | US spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impact | Ben Lamm | 42.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 245_018 | Macro/Economy | Invasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globally | Ben Lamm | 42.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 237_005 | Markets/Stocks | Apple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI. | Alex Finn | 42.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 248_043 | Robotics | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_048 | Energy | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_015 | Robotics | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Brett Adcock | 42.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_024 | Labor/Jobs | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Dara Khosrowshahi | 42.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_040 | Labor/Jobs | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Andrew Yang | 42.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_013 | Markets/Stocks | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Dave Blundin | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_005 | Labor/Jobs | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Ben Horowitz | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_039 | Labor/Jobs | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Salim Ismail | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_051 | Labor/Jobs | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_026 | Consumer | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_042 | Consumer | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_014 | Labor/Jobs | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Unnamed friend (accountant manager) | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_045 | Consumer | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_039 | Geopolitics | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Salim Ismail | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_022 | Markets/Stocks | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_050 | AI | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_044 | AI | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | Dave Blundin | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_032 | Biotech/Longevity | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_028 | Biotech/Longevity | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_049 | AI | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_035 | Biotech/Longevity | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Ben Lamm | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_015 | AI | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_036 | AI | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_027 | Biotech/Longevity | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_050 | Robotics | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Dave Blundin | 42.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_016 | AI | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_007 | AI | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | Alex Finn | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_037 | Geopolitics | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_054 | AI | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | Ben Horowitz | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_002 | AI | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | Ben Horowitz | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_001 | AI | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | Ben Horowitz | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_059 | Macro/Economy | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Salim Ismail | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_007 | AI | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_043 | Biotech/Longevity | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Alex Wissner-Gross | 42.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_053 | Macro/Economy | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Salim Ismail | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_029 | Labor/Jobs | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Salim Ismail | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_022 | Labor/Jobs | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Salim Ismail | 42.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_037 | AI | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_033 | AI | AI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeks | Salim Ismail | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_017 | AI | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_044 | AI | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_011 | AI | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_051 | Markets/Stocks | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_003 | AI | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_054 | Labor/Jobs | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_070 | AI | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_026 | Markets/Stocks | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Dave Blundin | 41.9% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_052 | Macro/Economy | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Dave Blundin | 41.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_046 | Geopolitics | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Dave Blundin | 41.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_052 | Markets/Stocks | $100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) | Elon Musk | 41.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_021 | AI | Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_031 | Biotech/Longevity | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_038 | AI | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_039 | Biotech/Longevity | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_057 | Macro/Economy | Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.6% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 238_060 | Macro/Economy | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Emad Mostaque | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 240_011 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_002 | Markets/Stocks | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_036 | Markets/Stocks | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Dave Blundin | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_002 | AI | Rising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insights | Unknown | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_028 | AI | Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_012 | Markets/Stocks | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Dara Khosrowshahi | 41.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_001 | AI | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_025 | AI | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_041 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Dave Blundin | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_016 | AI | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_020 | AI | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_024 | Labor/Jobs | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Dave Blundin | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_009 | AI | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_008 | Consumer | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Alex Finn | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_011 | AI | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| CMQ_008 | Labor/Jobs | Rapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment crisis requiring entirely new tax structures to manage displacement. | Dario Amodei | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | Automation tax / policy response typically arrives late; by then labor-services TAM already compressed. |
| 245_038 | Consumer | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Ben Lamm | 41.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_048 | AI | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_017 | AI | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | OpenAI Codex Lead | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_067 | Energy | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Dave Blundin | 41.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_040 | Auto/Transport | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Salim Ismail | 41.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_057 | AI | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 41.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_023 | Macro/Economy | AI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcy | Elon Musk | 40.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 240_013 | AI | Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs | Sam Altman | 40.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_023 | AI | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | Dave Blundin | 40.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_023 | AI | Baby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_066 | Energy | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Pete (audience, data center builder) | 40.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_006 | AI | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | Alex Finn | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_034 | Other | Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | Ben Lamm | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_052 | Biotech/Longevity | Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_010 | Biotech/Longevity | Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation | Ben Lamm | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_013 | Biotech/Longevity | Artificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction species | Ben Lamm | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_050 | Other | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck close | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_031 | Biotech/Longevity | 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadly | Ben Lamm | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_032 | Other | Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government education | Ben Lamm | 40.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_024 | Robotics | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. | Brett Adcock | 40.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_047 | AI | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_042 | AI | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | Brett Adcock | 40.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_004 | AI | xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 | Elon Musk | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 234_026 | AI | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_021 | Crypto | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Alex Finn | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_015 | Labor/Jobs | Tesla output per employee will become very very high | Elon Musk | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_019 | Macro/Economy | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Elon Musk | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_032 | AI | Progress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curves | Elon Musk | 40.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 229_043 | Robotics | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Brett Adcock | 40.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_006 | Labor/Jobs | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Emad Mostaque | 40.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_027 | Auto/Transport | Hyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humans | Salim Ismail | 40.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_032 | AI | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | Brett Adcock | 40.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_008 | Energy | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Dave Blundin | 40.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 229_003 | Robotics | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Brett Adcock | 39.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_018 | AI | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_008 | AI | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_004 | AI | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_042 | AI | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | Salim Ismail | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_056 | AI | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_024 | Biotech/Longevity | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Dave Blundin | 39.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_022 | AI | From here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_029 | AI | Intelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on Earth | Elon Musk | 39.5% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 234_019 | AI | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_007 | Robotics | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_019 | Other | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_005 | AI | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_030 | Biotech/Longevity | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 248_031 | Biotech/Longevity | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_015 | Labor/Jobs | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_026 | Other | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_010 | Education | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Joe Liemandt | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_041 | Other | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_019 | Macro/Economy | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_003 | Education | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | MacKenzie Price | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_054 | Real Estate | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_018 | Education | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Joe Liemandt | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_009 | Defense | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_011 | Defense | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_032 | Geopolitics | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_039 | Education | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_069 | Geopolitics | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 243_039 | Robotics | Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | Dara Khosrowshahi | 39.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_031 | AI | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_045 | Geopolitics | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_025 | Other | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_044 | Biotech/Longevity | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_048 | AI | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 39.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_041 | AI | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | Eric Schmidt | 38.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_044 | AI | Intelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQ | Salim Ismail | 38.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_035 | Biotech/Longevity | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Dario Amodei | 38.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_021 | AI | AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. | Joe Liemandt | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 245_028 | Biotech/Longevity | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Ben Lamm | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_047 | Biotech/Longevity | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 244_025 | Labor/Jobs | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Dara Khosrowshahi | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 236_032 | Macro/Economy | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Andrew Yang | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_028 | Labor/Jobs | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Goldman Sachs | 38.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_047 | Markets/Stocks | Memory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 248_027 | Other | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Dave Blundin | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_045 | Macro/Economy | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_024 | AI | Advanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionate | Marc Andreessen | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 235_018 | Labor/Jobs | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 236_039 | Energy | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 229_026 | Robotics | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Brett Adcock | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_012 | AI | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | Kevin Weil | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_014 | AI | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_035 | Markets/Stocks | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_058 | AI | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 241_051 | AI | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | Eric Schmidt | 38.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_059 | Macro/Economy | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Salim Ismail | 38.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_063 | Labor/Jobs | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Salim Ismail | 38.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_041 | Energy | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_021 | AI | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 237_030 | AI | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_002 | AI | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_010 | AI | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_051 | Consumer | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_018 | AI | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_053 | Crypto | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 230_004 | AI | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_015 | Auto/Transport | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Dara Khosrowshahi | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_034 | AI | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | Andrej Karpathy | 38.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_058 | AI | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_006 | AI | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | Joe Liemandt | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_002 | Space | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_011 | AI | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_037 | Space | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_003 | AI | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_007 | AI | Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI | Kevin Weil | 37.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_040 | Biotech/Longevity | Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships | Ben Lamm | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_029 | Biotech/Longevity | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_042 | AI | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_025 | Space | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Elon Musk | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 240_007 | Geopolitics | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Dave Blundin | 37.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_017 | Space | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_034 | Markets/Stocks | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Chamath Palihapitiya | 37.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_048 | Space | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 230_023 | Biotech/Longevity | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_012 | AI | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | Joe Liemandt | 37.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_037 | Biotech/Longevity | Mosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not) | Ben Lamm | 37.5% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 236_043 | Education | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_024 | AI | AI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras) | Emad Mostaque | 37.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_018 | Auto/Transport | Human driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstraction | Alex Wissner-Gross | 37.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_011 | Education | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Joe Liemandt | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_033 | AI | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | Dave Blundin | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_010 | Space | Mass driver on the moon within 10 years | Elon Musk | 36.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 248_007 | AI | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_001 | AI | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | Unknown | 36.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_041 | Space | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_019 | Space | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_017 | Biotech/Longevity | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Ben Lamm | 36.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_043 | Defense | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Salim Ismail | 36.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_028 | Energy | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Elon Musk | 36.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 242_031 | Markets/Stocks | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 247_014 | Geopolitics | Politicization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_018 | Energy | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| COD_AI_004 | AI | Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 | Codex Research Pack | 36.0% | unknown | unknown | Codex research pack adverse exposure. |
| 240_004 | AI | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_022 | AI | Future AI will care about power/mass rather than human currency | Elon Musk | 35.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_005 | AI | AI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degree | Elon Musk | 35.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 241_043 | AI | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 246_016 | Space | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_009 | Education | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Joe Liemandt | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_047 | Robotics | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_008 | Markets/Stocks | Many incumbent companies will be in deep trouble between now and the abundance end-state | Salim Ismail | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 232_055 | AI | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_017 | Energy | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Salim Ismail | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 231_013 | AI | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_038 | Real Estate | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_017 | Macro/Economy | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 235_037 | AI | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_015 | AI | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 244_029 | Energy | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Dara Khosrowshahi | 35.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 241_035 | AI | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | Eric Schmidt | 35.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 237_019 | AI | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_036 | Media/Ads | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Emad Mostaque | 35.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_044 | AI | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| CMQ_018 | Geopolitics | By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | AGI governance regimes slow deployment in specific sectors but do not halt displacement trajectory. |
| 236_001 | Macro/Economy | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Elon Musk | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_021 | Macro/Economy | Money will stop being relevant at some point | Elon Musk | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 240_021 | AI | Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 246_034 | AI | Thousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 245_002 | AI | Every company should or will be an AI company | Ben Lamm | 35.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_027 | AI | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_029 | Biotech/Longevity | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_043 | Education | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_019 | Education | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Joe Liemandt | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 234_025 | Robotics | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_057 | Robotics | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Dave Blundin | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 235_035 | AI | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_043 | AI | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 234_004 | AI | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_071 | AI | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_057 | AI | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_031 | AI | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_038 | AI | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_032 | AI | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_030 | Geopolitics | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 238_033 | Markets/Stocks | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_004 | AI | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | Joe Liemandt | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_012 | AI | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_003 | AI | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.6% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 245_044 | Biotech/Longevity | Northern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombs | Ben Lamm | 34.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_026 | AI | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_003 | AI | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.5% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 232_024 | Macro/Economy | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 240_036 | Energy | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 232_059 | Macro/Economy | Universal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.2% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 242_023 | Macro/Economy | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Dave Blundin | 34.2% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_030 | Markets/Stocks | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.1% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_055 | Markets/Stocks | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_005 | Markets/Stocks | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_040 | AI | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 231_015 | AI | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_048 | AI | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 248_034 | Markets/Stocks | Capital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning. | Salim Ismail | 34.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 236_038 | Education | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Alex Wissner-Gross | 33.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 238_058 | Macro/Economy | Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years | Salim Ismail | 33.0% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 248_014 | AI | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 247_012 | AI | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | Alex Wissner-Gross | 32.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 233_008 | Education | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Joe Liemandt | 32.3% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 238_044 | Biotech/Longevity | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 242_020 | Auto/Transport | Cybercab to be priced at approximately $30K | Elon Musk | 31.4% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 235_024 | Energy | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.4% | unknown | unknown | Abundance thesis requires real-price deflation in services; legacy service incumbents face compressed pricing power. |
| 238_028 | Markets/Stocks | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Emad Mostaque | 31.2% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 248_010 | AI | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | Dave Blundin | 31.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 239_009 | Space | People will be on Mars within 10 years | Elon Musk | 30.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 230_022 | Robotics | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Elon Musk | 30.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 232_047 | Space | Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow. | Elon Musk | 30.0% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| 239_008 | Space | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Elon Musk | 28.8% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| SEM_034 | AI/AGI | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| ROB_014 | Labor/Jobs | White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading edge already visible with 1.1M+ US job cuts in 2025 where AI was explicitly cited as primary culprit. Without UBI ($1,000/month funded by AI-compute + VAT taxes), automation wav... | Andrew Yang | 28.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 247_040 | Crypto | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Alex Wissner-Gross | 25.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 242_056 | Macro/Economy | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Alex Wissner-Gross | 25.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 246_049 | AI | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 24.4% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| 240_053 | AI | AI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaningless | Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures. |
| 239_020 | AI | AI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to do | Elon Musk | 22.9% | unknown | unknown | If AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks. |
| IND_025 | Macro/Economy | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... | Salim Ismail | 22.8% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Dave Blundin | 22.7% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| AUT_009 | AI | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... | Dario Amodei | 22.3% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| CMQ_054 | Macro/Economy | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Elon Musk | 21.8% | unknown | unknown | Same as abundance: AI-driven marginal cost collapse erodes service-labor economics. |
| CMQ_019 | Geopolitics | Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required once AI agents begin communicating in proprietary, non-human-decipherable languages. | Eric Schmidt | 16.0% | unknown | unknown | Safety/regulatory regime may delay AGI deployment but does not reverse displacement curve. |
| SEM_032 | AI/Mathematics | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 15.0% | unknown | unknown | Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028. |
| INF_028 | Labor/Jobs | AI will render approximately 99% of white-collar jobs replaceable within two years — cognitive-labor costs will mathematically approach the marginal cost of electricity required to generate inference. | Dave Blundin | 13.9% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |
| IND_017 | Macro/Economy | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work so effectively that a synthetic entity could run a billion-dollar enterprise autonomously. Dawn of 'Agentic Era' begins 2027, where autonomous AI agents seamlessly integrate ... | Peter Diamandis | 11.4% | unknown | unknown | AI agents displace entry-level knowledge work; BPO revenue pool compresses. |