New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI

New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. Uh so you'll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or... that's how you're going to create the next anthropic or the next Open AI.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. Uh so you'll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or... that's how you're going to create the next anthropic or the next Open AI.

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Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. Uh so you'll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or or you know call Intel um and figure out how you're going to get it manufactured on custom hard",
  "verbatim": "it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. Uh so you'll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or... that's how you're going to create the next anthropic or the next Open AI.",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mamba-3 released at ICLR 2026, demonstrates content-aware SSM at frontier scale",
      "source": "https://openreview.net/pdf?id=HwCvaJOiCj",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Mamba-3 (or successor SSM architecture) accepted to ICLR/NeurIPS 2026 with model-quality parity to comparable transformer at >=2x speed, validated by independent benchmark (MMLU, HELM)"
    },
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hybrid SSM+attention architecture (Jamba-class) deployed at production scale by frontier lab",
      "source": "https://callsphere.ai/blog/transformer-alternatives-mamba-rwkv-state-space-models-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
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      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AI21, Mistral, Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google ships a non-pure-transformer production model >=70B params with >=20% adoption signal (API traffic share, leaderboard ranking)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model trained on architecture that does NOT efficiently map to NVIDIA tensor cores",
      "source": "https://borealtimes.org/transformer-ai/",
      "status": "pending",
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      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
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      "expected_date_range": {
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      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major frontier lab releases model where >=50% of compute is on non-tensor-core kernels (e.g., custom selective-scan, recurrent state ops), with public benchmarks showing CUDA inefficiency vs custom hardware"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "New AI lab founded specifically around post-transformer architecture (Anthropic-class)",
      "source": "https://medium.com/@raktims2210/mamba-selective-state-space-models-and-the-rise-of-post-transformer-ai-f197f05e8ab8",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
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      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-19",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-05-06",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Net-new AI lab raises >=$500M Series A/B with e
... (truncated)