TK02thesis_killerthesis_killer
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
Prior probability
12.0%
Current probability
12.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 387
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
China-Taiwan military action, earthquake, or cyberattack disrupts TSMC 3nm/5nm capacity. GPU/AI-chip supply collapses for 12-24 months.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 12%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 11.9% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.459 |
| killer | 248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / — Alex Wissner-Gross | 10.2% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.344 |
| killer | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.268 |
| killer | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.050 | 0.720 | +0.232 |
| killer | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.217 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (387)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| killer | CYB_018 | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... | Robotics | — |
| killer | SEM_048 | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). | AI/Corporate | — |
| killer | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_001 | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| killer | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| killer | 246_047 | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_041 | Apple will eventually integrate highly competent private frontier models into its OS (when not if) | AI | — |
| killer | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| killer | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 241_006 | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | AI | — |
| killer | 229_028 | Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. | Robotics | — |
| killer | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| killer | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | AI_016 | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. | AI | — |
| killer | CYB_009 | Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_029 | DRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'. | Semis/Memory | — |
| killer | SEM_047 | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. | AI/Hardware | — |
| killer | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | INF_015 | Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will transition from secondary facility metrics to the top operational KPIs for DC operators — mandating liquid-to-chip and two-phase immersion cooling as default hardware. | Energy | — |
| killer | INF_039 | Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... | Consumer | — |
| killer | SEM_024 | Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint). | Semis/Markets | — |
| killer | SEM_003 | Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. | Energy/Compute | — |
| killer | CMQ_026 | NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. | Semis | — |
| killer | SEM_020 | Nvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity. | Semis | — |
| killer | SEM_013 | Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | SEM_004 | Capital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and repurposed Bitcoin mining facilities. | Investing | — |
| killer | SEM_026 | Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. | Semis/Products | — |
| killer | CYB_026 | The initial assumption that the United States can maintain a durable long-term 'moat' based purely on proprietary algorithms and compute concentration has been heavily challenged — rapid uncontrollable diffusion of highly capable open-source models (De... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | ROB_012 | The ultimate bottleneck for global robotics deployment is NOT software architecture but physical GPU hardware — nearly all advanced AI chips are manufactured in Taiwan; the entire trajectory of global automation and the timeline to the singularity is p... | Semis | — |
| killer | CMQ_059 | Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost control for high-volume inference, (3) running uncensored/customized LLMs unavailable on major clouds. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_033 | Global HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain. | Semis/Memory | — |
| killer | SEM_031 | AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segments. | Semis/Hardware | — |
| killer | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| killer | ROB_021 | The United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China operates with 'incredible speed at massive scale' in hardware-heavy sectors (advanced batteries, high-speed rail, commercial robotics); failure to digitize the industr... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | SPC_015 | AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and space debris to predict collisions with superhuman accuracy — upon identifying collision risks, AI systems will autonomously command satellite Hall-effect thrusters to adjust or... | Space | — |
| killer | CMQ_039 | TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs. | Semis/Packaging | — |
| killer | AUT_019 | Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from singular query-response to continuous autonomous agentic loops required for scientific discovery, underlying computational costs surge exponentially; GP... | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_017 | TSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm. | Semis | — |
| killer | AUT_015 | Complete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security pivots away from small numbers of exquisite expensive surveillance platforms (high-altitude drones, fighter jets) toward highly distributed autonomous systems of thousands of... | Defense | — |
| killer | CMQ_058 | Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | INF_026 | 'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru... | AI | — |
| killer | AI_017 | NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... | Semis | — |
| killer | CMQ_036 | SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. | Semis/Memory | — |
| killer | IND_012 | NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| killer | CMQ_062 | Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. | Quantum | — |
| killer | SEM_002 | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). | AI | — |
| killer | SPC_018 | Five North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | SEM_006 | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction. | AI/Finance | — |
| killer | SEM_028 | Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | AUT_016 | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l... | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_019 | Samsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critical secondary Western supplier. | Semis | — |
| killer | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| killer | AI_009 | Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly from $10 billion clusters → $100 billion clusters → trillion-dollar mega-facilities by late 2020s — each order-of-magnitude jump completed roughly every 2 years. | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_019 | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and into the physical economy, turning traditional hardware engineering into deeply integrated software-driven systems; relies on robot learning, autonomous science, and new inte... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | CMQ_014 | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | SEM_023 | No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. | Semis/Markets | — |
| killer | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| killer | INF_004 | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty awaiting compute — such that if export controls relax or are bypassed, China has near-immediate physical capacity to train frontier models equivalent to Anth... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_048 | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| killer | 233_007 | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Education | — |
| killer | CMQ_028 | NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). | Semis | — |
| killer | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| killer | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 246_029 | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_018 | SMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses. | Semis | — |
| killer | 238_035 | AI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humans | AI | — |
| killer | 248_019 | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. | Space | — |
| killer | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | AI | — |
| killer | 231_039 | Elon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_036 | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_043 | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_018 | Uber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving cars | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | INF_036 | AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, counter-intrusion systems) become software endpoints — requiring a bifurcated networking architecture: massive sovereign hyperscale DCs for trainin... | AI | — |
| killer | 246_055 | We WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_053 | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_033 | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | AI/Physics | — |
| killer | 246_037 | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation). | AI | — |
| killer | 248_011 | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_026 | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 247_055 | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | AI | — |
| killer | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| killer | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | CMQ_015 | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effective compute through 2027 — pure multiplier on raw FLOPs. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_005 | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_042 | Current market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an... | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| killer | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_042 | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | AI | — |
| killer | 242_046 | Custom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvements | AI | — |
| killer | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| killer | 242_052 | Cost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping point | AI | — |
| killer | 242_059 | Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 243_006 | Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 244_036 | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | AI | — |
| killer | 248_046 | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Space | — |
| killer | 248_041 | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute to orbit. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| killer | 241_015 | Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_023 | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 248_021 | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_050 | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_051 | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_052 | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| killer | 248_017 | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_008 | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | AI | — |
| killer | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_012 | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_030 | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | AI | — |
| killer | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| killer | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| killer | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_053 | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 229_036 | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Space | — |
| killer | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| killer | 241_005 | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | AI | — |
| killer | AUT_011 | Severe impending collision between capabilities of open autonomous systems and desires of global state actors to maintain control — emergence of 'compute licensing dystopias' where governments implement draconian surveillance over raw computational har... | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| killer | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_021 | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | AI | — |
| killer | 234_030 | Auto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_031 | Only 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 million | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 234_046 | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | AI | — |
| killer | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_006 | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| killer | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | SEM_043 | SpaceX is actively exploring deployment of data centers in space — seeking regulatory permission immediately as rivals investigate orbital compute. | Space/Compute | — |
| killer | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_029 | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_007 | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startups | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_025 | Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. | Capital Markets | — |
| killer | 230_046 | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_030 | AI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisions | AI | — |
| killer | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_003 | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | AI | — |
| killer | 240_010 | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_016 | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | AI | — |
| killer | 240_020 | New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| killer | 231_014 | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_048 | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_050 | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| killer | 241_027 | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Robotics | — |
| killer | 241_045 | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | AI | — |
| killer | 242_002 | Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers | Space | — |
| killer | 242_004 | Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| killer | 242_010 | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | AI | — |
| killer | 242_017 | Self-driving will become 95-97% safer than human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_021 | Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | FUT_005 | Emergence of 'Living Intelligence' 2026-2031: violent transformative convergence between biological science, silicon-based sensor networks, and algorithmic orchestration — biological cells programmed with same precision as silicon computers. Living cel... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 241_008 | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | AI | — |
| killer | 241_013 | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | AI | — |
| killer | 229_008 | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 229_040 | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 229_042 | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | AI | — |
| killer | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_045 | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_053 | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | AI | — |
| killer | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | AI | — |
| killer | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| killer | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 234_017 | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| killer | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 236_037 | Transportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access model | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 237_006 | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_011 | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_015 | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_001 | Cost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more people | AI | — |
| killer | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| killer | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| killer | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_019 | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | AI | — |
| killer | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 240_029 | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | AI | — |
| killer | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| killer | 242_001 | Elon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global production | AI | — |
| killer | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| killer | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| killer | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 246_022 | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_024 | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | AI | — |
| killer | 246_040 | In cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model). | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| killer | 246_044 | Two outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_053 | ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_004 | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | AI | — |
| killer | 247_009 | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | AI | — |
| killer | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| killer | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_028 | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | AI | — |
| killer | 248_006 | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_043 | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 248_050 | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_021 | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | AI/China | — |
| killer | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| killer | CMQ_013 | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. | AI | — |
| killer | CYB_028 | The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | IND_001 | Single operators utilizing low-cost hardware (e.g., $600 Mac Minis) will be able to replicate the output of entire enterprise teams, drastically reducing the friction of multi-million-dollar software development — leading to total dissolution of middle... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 238_012 | OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes | AI | — |
| killer | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| killer | 237_020 | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_054 | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 237_009 | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | AI | — |
| killer | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| killer | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 247_011 | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | AI | — |
| killer | 242_044 | Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack | AI | — |
| killer | 231_001 | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_022 | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_016 | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_048 | Next major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language models | AI | — |
| killer | 234_047 | Agents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 services | AI | — |
| killer | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 247_057 | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | AI | — |
| killer | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 230_003 | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_006 | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given over to data centers as AI compute demand scales — hyperscaler DC footprint transitions from discrete campuses to regional-scale compute territories. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| killer | 238_060 | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 232_044 | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| killer | 231_025 | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | AI | — |
| killer | 248_037 | State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_037 | Network effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover) | AI | — |
| killer | INF_072 | There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. | AI | — |
| killer | 244_015 | AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | 238_034 | Software developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumers | AI | — |
| killer | 248_039 | Social license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_014 | Everything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical world | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_010 | 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical production, marginal cost of goods and services falls toward absolute zero; once physical labor is decoupled from human biological limits, the only true constraints on economic output ar... | Robotics | — |
| killer | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| killer | 247_002 | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | AI | — |
| killer | 246_032 | Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. | AI | — |
| killer | 248_027 | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Other | — |
| killer | 246_031 | Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. | AI | — |
| killer | 246_021 | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | AI | — |
| killer | 245_040 | Biovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnerships | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 230_004 | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | AI | — |
| killer | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 245_006 | Colossal will productionize species development via biobanking, synthetic biology, automation, AI, computer vision and artificial wombs | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_051 | Dyson swarm compute infrastructure will be realized in a few years | Space | — |
| killer | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 242_043 | AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state | AI | — |
| killer | 240_030 | Tesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 240_008 | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Geopolitics | — |
| killer | 238_071 | Future AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughs | AI | — |
| killer | 238_038 | Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized | AI | — |
| killer | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| killer | 238_027 | OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction | AI | — |
| killer | 237_030 | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_037 | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 235_015 | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | AI | — |
| killer | 235_010 | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | AI | — |
| killer | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| killer | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| killer | 234_018 | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | AI | — |
| killer | 234_004 | Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI | AI | — |
| killer | INF_007 | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. | AI | — |
| killer | INF_008 | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per month since May 2024 — a sustained compounding rate that rapidly surpasses human-level baselines and mandates continuous hardware refresh cycles. | AI | — |
| killer | 240_057 | OpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategy | AI | — |
| killer | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| killer | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| killer | 247_029 | OpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma company | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | 231_015 | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 231_003 | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | AI | — |
| killer | 238_040 | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | AI | — |
| killer | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
| killer | 247_026 | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | AI | — |
| killer | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| killer | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| killer | 248_048 | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | AI | — |
| killer | SPC_020 | Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... | Auto/Transport | — |
| killer | AI_020 | NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. | Space | — |
| killer | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| killer | CYB_030 | Deploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat... | Space | — |
| killer | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_009 | The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). | Economy | — |
| killer | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| killer | ROB_014 | White-collar 'bloodbath' could displace up to 40 million US jobs — leading edge already visible with 1.1M+ US job cuts in 2025 where AI was explicitly cited as primary culprit. Without UBI ($1,000/month funded by AI-compute + VAT taxes), automation wav... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| killer | INF_020 | In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. | Space | — |
| killer | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| killer | CYB_001 | By 2036, NVIDIA itself will employ approximately 75,000 human workers alongside 7.5 million AI agents — establishing a 100-to-1 synthetic-to-human labor ratio. Human employees transition exclusively to high-level strategic orchestration; every employee... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| killer | 246_049 | Dyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it. | AI | — |
| killer | SEM_016 | Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. | Semis/Geopolitics | — |
| killer | SEM_007 | Altman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility. | AI/Strategy | — |
| killer | SPC_023 | Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... | AI | — |
| killer | INF_009 | The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. | AI | — |
| killer | CMQ_063 | Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. | Quantum/AI | — |
| killer | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"mechanism": "China-Taiwan military action, earthquake, or cyberattack disrupts TSMC 3nm/5nm capacity. GPU/AI-chip supply collapses for 12-24 months.",
"time_window": "2026-2030",
"scenario_name": "AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)",
"affected_domains": "AI (172), Markets (73), Labor (41), Geopolitics (21), Semis (20)",
"hedge_candidates": [
"Long INTC calls",
"LMT",
"GLD",
"short TSM",
"NVDA"
],
"monitoring_cadence": "Weekly — Taiwan Strait military activity; TSMC capacity announcements",
"affected_pred_count": 387,
"early_warning_signals": "PLA naval exercises near Taiwan; TSMC Arizona yield reports; US-China tensions at DEFCON 3+",
"countervailing_factors": "Intel 18A/TSMC Arizona ramp to 100k wafers/mo by 2027; AI algorithmic efficiency gains (20× effective compute)",
"sample_affected_pred_ids": [
"229_008",
"229_026",
"229_028",
"229_036",
"229_038",
"229_040",
"229_042",
"230_003",
"230_004",
"230_005",
"..."
],
"tickers_flipping_adverse_to_benef": [
"INTC (US fabs)",
"SMCI",
"defense (LMT",
"RTX",
"NOC)",
"GLD"
],
"tickers_flipping_benef_to_adverse": [
"NVDA",
"AMD",
"AVGO",
"ASML",
"TSM",
"ARM",
"CRWV"
]
}