SEM_028predictionCapital Marketshardware

Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.

Predictor: Joseph Moore

Prior probability

75.0%

Current probability

60.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

in_progress

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

3 / 11

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. | Q2-Q4 2026 sector performance

Key catalyst: Q2-Q4 2026 sector performance

Watch events: NVDA, AVGO, ASTS 12-month price performance vs semi index

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

AVGO/ASTS both outperformed NASDAQ in Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. MS coverage initiated Overweight on ASTS Dec 2025.

Predictor: Joseph Moore

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.583

Brier

0.0001

excellent

Hits / Misses

1 / 0

of 1 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Joseph Moore is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 60.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending

2026-02-25overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-04-21overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-06-15pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-08-10pendingMain characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.
2027-06-16pendingAmazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.
2028-06-23pendingSpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.
2029-04-10pendingHumans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship
2029-06-18pendingSpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.
2030-08-12pendingStarship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)
2031-05-22pendingSpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 61%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z60.5%+1.9pp

Network propagation: 58.6% → 60.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z58.6%+3.8pp

Network propagation: 54.8% → 58.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z54.8%-11.3pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.548 blend=0.548 LLR=-0.473 κ=0.58 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Joseph Moore",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.6662521821760291,
  "bayes_factor": "1.6:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6606634528144868,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.5833,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2365077975594923,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-21",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5481593824791782,
  "posterior_logit": 0.1932365870570445,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0001,
  "inside_posterior": 0.5481593824791782,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5481593824791782,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.4730155951189846,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z66.1%-3.2pp

Network propagation: 69.3% → 66.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z69.3%-5.7pp

Network propagation: 75.0% → 69.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.750	-0.100
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.750	+0.089
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.750	+0.061

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	242_005 Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (27 — Peter Diamandis	49.1%	0.600	0.050	-0.103
prereq	232_051 Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; du — Peter Diamandis	49.1%	0.600	0.050	-0.103
prereq	247_055 Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of mi — Dave Blundin	49.9%	0.650	0.050	-0.080
prereq	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit — Peter Diamandis	48.0%	0.650	0.050	-0.061
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	+0.058

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALAB AMBA ARM ASML CEVA CRWV IREN MU NBIS NVDA SITM TSM AMD NXPI ANET MRVL CSCO DELL AVGO SIEGY LNVGY AMAT QCOM ATEYY

Adverse (4)

AMAT INTC LRCX AMD

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (11)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	231_035	SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.	Space	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	230_006	The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.	AI	—
prereq	247_055	Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common	AI	—
prereq	246_010	SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	248_033	Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.	AI	—
prereq	232_051	Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.	Space	—
prereq	242_005	Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)	Space	—
prereq	232_046	SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.	Space	—
prereq	242_038	Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship	Space	—

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-12-31	[Capital Markets 2026-12] x beats; IG/HY DC-project debt issuance [SEM_028] NVDA, AVGO, ASTS 12-month price performance vs semi index [CMQ_020] Hyperscaler capex guidance; sovereign AI infrastructure commitments; CHIPS Act / EU Chips Act disbur	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.671	edgar_8k	Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) (CIK 0001736297)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-05
0.662	gdelt	boersengang voraus angriff auf nvidia aktie ki spezialist cerebras wagt neuen ipo anlauf an der nasdaq 00 15640811	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.652	gdelt	10729180	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.645	gdelt		—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.618	edgar_8k	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-05
0.616	edgar_8k	Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (CIK 0001730168)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.616	arxiv	Vector-Quantized Discrete Latent Factors Meet Financial Priors: Dynamic Cross-Sectional Stock Ranking Prediction for Portfolio Construction	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-13
0.606	edgar_8k	LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP (LMT) (CIK 0000936468)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-13
0.602	edgar_8k	TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC (TXN) (CIK 0000097476)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.601	edgar_8k	ENTEGRIS INC (ENTG) (CIK 0001101302)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-11

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Analyst",
  "context": "MS 2026 semi coverage designates NVDA + AVGO as definitive institutional core, with ASTS as high-growth connectivity exposure.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "definitive main characters",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-21",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_051",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "231_035",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "242_038",
      "expected_date": "2029-04-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "232_046",
      "expected_date": "2029-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "242_005",
      "expected_date": "2030-08-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "246_010",
      "expected_date": "2031-05-22",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Morgan Stanley",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "source_refs": "17",
  "target_date": "2026-12-15",
  "display_date": "2026-08-10",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Q2-Q4 2026 sector performance",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Markets",
  "episode_title": "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosy
... (truncated)