Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings
Verbatim quote
we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30overdueArtemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)How: NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flybySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSpaceX completes first Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demoHow: SpaceX demonstrates propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit with confirmed transfer massSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingSpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing demonstration (HLS rehearsal)How: SpaceX lands uncrewed Starship HLS variant on lunar surface with telemetry confirming controlled touchdownSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingArtemis III lunar-orbit rendezvous test (no crewed landing) revised mission profileHow: NASA confirms Artemis III mission profile as Earth-orbit/cislunar rendezvous test with HLS landers, no crewed surface landingSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-04-10pendingArtemis IV crewed lunar landing (first since Apollo) launchesHow: NASA Artemis IV mission delivers astronauts to lunar surface with confirmed landing telemetrySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2028-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst sustained 2-person lunar surface stay >=14 daysHow: Documented surface stay duration >=14 days with confirmed biomedical telemetrySource: llm_enrichedconf 25%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.8438,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.49966294960301877,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.37761988016133147,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.59066,
"label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027",
"adjusted_llr": -0.23949202075516837,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flyby"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.3231889561086179,
"posterior_logit": -0.7391549703581871,
"predictor_brier": 0.03413,
"inside_posterior": 0.3231889561086179,
"blended_posterior": 0.3231889561086179,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.23949202075516837,
"predictor_n_resolved": 11
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.066 |
| prereq | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, B — Joseph Moore | 60.5% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.050 |
| prereq | SEM_031 AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and — Alex Wissner-Gross | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | SEM_024 Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconduct — Joseph Moore | 81.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movin — Alex Wissner-Gross | 54.7% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.184 |
| prereq | 246_010 SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company wit — Peter Diamandis | 42.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.179 |
| prereq | 246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missio — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.104 |
| prereq | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/S — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.100 |
| prereq | 232_049 Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disa — Alex Wissner-Gross | 19.0% | 0.300 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (17)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_001 | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_024 | Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint). | Semis/Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_031 | AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segments. | Semis/Hardware | — |
| prereq | SEM_028 | Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2028 | Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2026 | Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| correlate | S_MARS_2031PLUS | Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_016 | Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm). | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_010 | SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_032 | Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_020 | China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_049 | Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers. | Space | — |
Expected milestones (2)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | NASA Artemis IV astronaut lunar surface return target | pending |
| 2029-12-31 | [Space 2029-12] rbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [242_038] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blac [SPC_021] Terran R first flight; AI-manufacturing part-count metrics | pending |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.621 | manifold | Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028? | 36% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.602 | manifold | When will Starship flight 14 happen? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.565 | gdelt | nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years",
"conv_cues": "hopefully",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "2-3 years",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -13,
"source_id": "SEM_029",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -12,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flyby"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": "246_001",
"expected_date": "2026-06-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segme",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_031",
"expected_date": "2026-08-05",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_028",
"expected_date": "2026-08-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_024",
"expected_date": "2026-08-14",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX completes first Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demo",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/spacex-starship-timeline-delays-astronaut-moon-landing-for-nasas-artemis-3-mission-to-2028-report",
"expected_date": "2026-09-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX demonstrates propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit with confirmed transfer mass"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "S_MARS_2026",
"exp
... (truncated)