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242_038predictionSpaceSpaceX

Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
35.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
26

Prediction text

Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship | we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blackwell satellite (Oct 2026); Google Project Suncatcher demo satellite; FCC DC filings

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"
we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-082026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 11 pending
  1. 2026-04-30overdueArtemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)
    How: NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flyby
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSpaceX completes first Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demo
    How: SpaceX demonstrates propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit with confirmed transfer mass
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingSpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing demonstration (HLS rehearsal)
    How: SpaceX lands uncrewed Starship HLS variant on lunar surface with telemetry confirming controlled touchdown
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingArtemis III lunar-orbit rendezvous test (no crewed landing) revised mission profile
    How: NASA confirms Artemis III mission profile as Earth-orbit/cislunar rendezvous test with HLS landers, no crewed surface landing
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2029-04-10pendingArtemis IV crewed lunar landing (first since Apollo) launches
    How: NASA Artemis IV mission delivers astronauts to lunar surface with confirmed landing telemetry
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2028-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst sustained 2-person lunar surface stay >=14 days
    How: Documented surface stay duration >=14 days with confirmed biomedical telemetry
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z35.2%+1.0pp
Network propagation: 34.2% → 35.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z34.2%+1.9pp
Network propagation: 32.3% → 34.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z32.3%-5.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.323 blend=0.323 LLR=-0.239 κ=0.84 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.49966294960301877,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.37761988016133147,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.59066,
      "label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.23949202075516837,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flyby"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3231889561086179,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7391549703581871,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3231889561086179,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3231889561086179,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.23949202075516837,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.8%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 39.8% → 37.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z39.8%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 41.6% → 39.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z41.6%-3.4pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.450+0.066
prereqSEM_028
Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, BJoseph Moore
60.5%0.4500.050-0.056
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.450+0.050
prereqSEM_031
AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and Alex Wissner-Gross
67.1%0.4500.050-0.031
prereqSEM_024
Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductJoseph Moore
81.8%0.4500.050+0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq230_016
Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate movinAlex Wissner-Gross
54.7%0.9200.050-0.184
prereq246_010
SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company witPeter Diamandis
42.7%0.6000.050-0.179
prereq246_020
China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive missioAlex Wissner-Gross
31.7%0.5000.050-0.104
prereq231_032
Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/SAlex Wissner-Gross
31.2%0.5000.050-0.100
prereq232_049
Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disaAlex Wissner-Gross
19.0%0.3000.050-0.050

Ticker exposure

26 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (17)

MNTSASTSBKSYLUNRRKLBFLYPLGSATNNEIRDMKRMNAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (4)

VSATSESLUMNDISH

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq246_001SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_024Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).Semis/Markets
prereqSEM_031AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segments.Semis/Hardware
prereqSEM_028Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.Capital Markets
correlateS_MARS_2028Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)mars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2026Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer windowmars_uncrewed_landing
correlateS_MARS_2031PLUSMars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delaymars_uncrewed_landing
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_016Data center regulation in NY/elsewhere will accelerate moving compute to orbit (Dyson swarm).Space
prereq246_010SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.Markets/Stocks
prereq231_032Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit.Space
prereq246_020China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission).Geopolitics
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Expected milestones (2)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31NASA Artemis IV astronaut lunar surface return targetpending
2029-12-31[Space 2029-12] rbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence [242_038] SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Starcloud Blac [SPC_021] Terran R first flight; AI-manufacturing part-count metricspending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.621manifoldWill China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?36%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.602manifoldWhen will Starship flight 14 happen?mentionspending2026-05-04
0.565gdeltnasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyagementionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "we're so painfully close to finally relaunching a second space race... hopefully we have humans on landing on the moon again in the next two to three years",
  "conv_cues": "hopefully",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2-3 years",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis II crewed lunar flyby launches (April 2026 target)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/nasa-delays-artemis-2-moon-mission-to-april-2026-artemis-3-lunar-landing-to-mid-2027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Artemis II launch with crew on Orion vehicle for cislunar flyby"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO in history.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "246_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segme",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_031",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_028",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Memory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX completes first Starship-to-Starship orbital refueling demo",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/spacex-starship-timeline-delays-astronaut-moon-landing-for-nasas-artemis-3-mission-to-2028-report",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX demonstrates propellant transfer between two Starships in orbit with confirmed transfer mass"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "S_MARS_2026",
      "exp
... (truncated)