← Cockpit
SEM_029predictionSemis/Productshardware

Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.

Predictor: Nvidia

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
78.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
3 / 56
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Rubin memory spec reveal

Key catalyst: Rubin memory spec reveal

Watch events: Blackwell Ultra / Rubin successor memory capacity specs

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Nvidia RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell SKU launched Q1 2026 with 72GB GDDR7 — official Nvidia specifications confirm memory-capacity focus.

Predictor: Nvidia

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Nvidia is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 78.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 79%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z78.8%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 80.1% → 78.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z80.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 82.5% → 80.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z82.5%-3.9pp
Network propagation: 86.5% → 82.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z86.5%-5.5pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 86.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+17.5pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.825
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.17457,
  "inside_posterior": 0.82543,
  "validation_notes": "Nvidia RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell SKU launched Q1 2026 with 72GB GDDR7 — official Nvidia specifications confirm memory-capacity focus.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.82543,
  "resolution_evidence": "Nvidia RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell SKU launched Q1 2026 with 72GB GDDR7 — official Nvidia specifications confirm memory-capacity focus.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.920-0.173
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.920+0.062
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.920+0.027

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050+0.166
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050+0.158
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050+0.138
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050+0.132
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050+0.113

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALABAMBAARMASMLCEVACRWVIRENMUNBISNVDASITMTSMAMDNXPIANETMRVLCSCODELLAVGOSIEGYLNVGYAMATQCOMATEYY

Adverse (4)

AMATINTCLRCXAMD

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (56)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq230_006The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq231_035SpaceX/Elon will consume all their launch capacity for Starlink, leaving other providers constrained.Space
prereq247_055Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commonAI
prereq231_029Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Other
prereq231_038TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.AI
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq242_033Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Labor/Jobs
prereq247_030GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillionsAI
prereq246_010SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.Markets/Stocks
prereq247_020Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentLabor/Jobs
prereq232_051Amazon's satellite construction outpaces launch capacity; duopoly between Starlink and Amazon LEO.Space
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq248_016ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.AI
prereq230_024Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Biotech/Longevity
prereq234_021OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027AI
prereq248_015Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Labor/Jobs
prereq247_060Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseAI
prereq248_017Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.Labor/Jobs
prereq230_005Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.AI
prereq241_003Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetAI
prereq242_005Starship launch cadence will reach one every 5.3 minutes (274/day)Space
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI
prereq232_050Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.AI
prereq247_018First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionMacro/Economy
prereq242_016TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itAuto/Transport
prereq230_017Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Auto/Transport
prereq248_006The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year.AI
prereq235_026Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Media/Ads
prereq232_053To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.AI
prereq241_008AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possibleAI
prereq246_043Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Space
prereq231_024Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.AI
prereq242_011New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsAI
prereq235_001Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.AI
prereq247_052AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterMacro/Economy
prereq231_017A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.AI
prereq231_054Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.Labor/Jobs
prereq232_044There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.AI
prereq232_046SpaceX will build a system that allows anyone to travel to moon and Mars after Starship V3 flies repeatedly.Space
prereq234_013Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Markets/Stocks
prereq238_051If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Markets/Stocks
prereq238_070Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)AI
prereq246_011Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.AI
prereq230_003AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.AI
prereq245_028Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBiotech/Longevity
prereq242_038Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via StarshipSpace
prereq230_007Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Robotics
prereq235_037Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.AI
prereq235_018Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Labor/Jobs
prereq235_015GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.AI
prereq247_026Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agentsAI
prereq237_019Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.AI
prereq233_008Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.Education
prereq231_003Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.AI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-12-31[Capability 2026-12] [SEM_029] Blackwell Ultra / Rubin successor memory capacity specs [CMQ_027] Hyperscaler inference revenue mix; token-consumption growth rates; NVIDIA inference-optimized produc [CMQ_043] Agentic workload latenpending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importNvidia RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell SKU launched Q1 2026 with 72GB GDDR7 — official Nvidia specifications confirm memory-capacity focus.

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.585arxivMemoryCard: Topic-Aware Multi-Modal Clue Compression for Long-Video Question Answeringmentionspending2026-06-04
0.576fdaFDA BLA761467: KEYTRUDA QLEX (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHMEmentionspending2026-05-12
0.569fdaFDA NDA215256: WEGOVY (SEMAGLUTIDE) — NOVOmentionspending2026-05-05
0.528edgar_8kPhillips 66 (PSX) (CIK 0001534701)mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "72GB, 50% memory boost",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 72GB represents architectural shift toward onboard memory to bypass bandwidth bottleneck on larger models.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "specifically engineered; deliberate architectural concession",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "230_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "230_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "230_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "230_017",
      "expected_date": "2029-04-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "230_007",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "230_024",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Products",
  "affiliation": "NVIDIA",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.062417+00:00",
  "source_refs
... (truncated)