To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.

To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | our general rule of thumb on this, by the way, uh is okay, if you're going to create a new foundation model, like, you know, and it could be a world model, it could be a, you know, special science model or whatever it is, in order for you to win, you're going to have to be able to raise $2 billion before you get to a product.

our general rule of thumb on this, by the way, uh is okay, if you're going to create a new foundation model, like, you know, and it could be a world model, it could be a, you know, special science model or whatever it is, in order for you to win, you're going to have to be able to raise $2 billion before you get to a product.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$2 billion",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "our general rule of thumb on this, by the way, uh is okay, if you're going to create a new foundation model, like, you know, and it could be a world model, it could be a, you know, special science model or whatever it is, in order for you to win, you're going to have to be able to raise $2 billion before you get to a product. And so, there are like a tiny number of people with that pedigree who can do that.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "our general rule of thumb on this, by the way, uh is okay, if you're going to create a new foundation model, like, you know, and it could be a world model, it could be a, you know, special science model or whatever it is, in order for you to win, you're going to have to be able to raise $2 billion before you get to a product.",
  "conv_cues": "going to have to",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Safe Superintelligence raises $2B at $32B valuation pre-product",
      "notes": "HIT — SSI raised $2B at $32B valuation led by Greenoaks Capital, no commercial product. Confirms $2B-pre-product threshold.",
      "source": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/foundational-ai-startup-funding-doubled-openai-anthropic-xai-q1-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/foundational-ai-startup-funding-doubled-openai-anthropic-xai-q1-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Safe Superintelligence Inc. (Ilya Sutskever) closes a >=$2B funding round in 2025 prior to any commercial product"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Thinking Machines Lab raises $2B seed round at $10B valuation",
      "notes": "HIT — Thinking Machines Lab raised $2B seed at $10B valuation, largest seed ever recorded, before product launch. Validates Horowitz thesis directly.",
      "source": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/foundational-ai-startup-funding-doubled-openai-anthropic-xai-q1-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/foundational-ai-startup-funding-doubled-openai-anthropic-xai-q1-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati) closes a Series Seed of >=$2B in 2025, before shipping commercial product"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI completes >=$20B round at >=$200B valuation, NVIDIA-led",
      "notes": "HIT — xAI raised $20B Series E at $230B valuation. Tier-1 entrants now require multi-billion rounds.",
      "source": "https://techfundingnews.com/xai-nears-a-230b-valuation-with-20b-funding-from-nvidia-and-others-to-challenge-openai-and-anthropic/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://techfundingnews.com/xai-nears-a-230b-valuation-with-20b-funding-from-nvidia-and-others-to-challenge-openai-and-anthropic/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI raises Series E of >=$20B at valuation >=$200B led by NVIDIA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic completes >=$30B round at >=$380B valuation",
      "notes": "HIT — Anthropic Series G $30B led by GIC/Coatue at $380B post-money.",
      "source"
... (truncated)