Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Prediction text
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | Already realized
Key catalyst: Already realized
Watch events: Nvidia annual 10-K headcount + revenue disclosures; engineering AI-tool penetration surveys
Resolution evidence
Nvidia hiring reports show headcount 2x (~22K → ~44K 2023-2025). Revenue 4.5x ($27B → $130B FY25). Huang public statements confirm AI-tool deployment across chip-design pipelines.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-05-01overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2025-08-30overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2025-12-29overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.20884999999999998,
"inside_posterior": 0.79115,
"validation_notes": "Nvidia hiring reports show headcount 2x (~22K → ~44K 2023-2025). Revenue 4.5x ($27B → $130B FY25). Huang public statements confirm AI-tool deployment across chip-design pipelines.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.79115,
"resolution_evidence": "Nvidia hiring reports show headcount 2x (~22K → ~44K 2023-2025). Revenue 4.5x ($27B → $130B FY25). Huang public statements confirm AI-tool deployment across chip-design pipelines.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.900 | -0.148 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.900 | -0.105 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.900 | +0.065 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.900 | +0.048 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.900 | +0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.368 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.260 |
| prereq | 229_030 If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they coul — Brett Adcock | 17.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.213 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.212 |
| prereq | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an — Brett Adcock | 20.4% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.180 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (642)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_006 | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_014 | The consulting industry will go through the roof as consultants leverage AI to automate/improve existing jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_072 | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_047 | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 243_002 | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 229_013 | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_047 | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_021 | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 233_020 | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_015 | Full autonomy achieved within 2 years before Salim's son gets driver's license | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_001 | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_022 | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. | AI/Architecture | — |
| prereq | 244_020 | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 231_031 | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_036 | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_003 | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_005 | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_021 | Privacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| prereq | 230_011 | Enterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_050 | New economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_025 | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_034 | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_054 | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_055 | Acquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become common | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_046 | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_048 | Agentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_050 | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new solutions | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_026 | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_024 | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_018 | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox) | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_014 | The world a year from today will be nothing like the world today | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_005 | Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_041 | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 241_011 | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_039 | Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 241_007 | Super intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus) | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_011 | The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_012 | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_060 | Everyone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into movies | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 240_044 | College bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketing | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_043 | CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_064 | AI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep trouble | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_026 | Something bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_039 | Autonomous vehicles/flying cars coming by 2028. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_029 | Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_034 | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_041 | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_043 | Lack of hiring for junior positions will cause social unrest from young people who can't get jobs. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_044 | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_055 | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_049 | Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 238_023 | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_032 | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_004 | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 237_004 | Mac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 237_002 | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_001 | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_048 | Dropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of world | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_010 | Voice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_047 | New emotional pandemic of fear and anger coming | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_026 | College bankruptcy rate will skyrocket | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_047 | AI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_033 | Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_017 | AI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_018 | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_006 | The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_042 | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Security | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_023 | 80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappear | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_017 | Reskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_016 | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_007 | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform. | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_041 | PhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_043 | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 233_002 | Colleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_001 | Rapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | SEM_033 | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). | AI/Physics | — |
| prereq | 230_013 | There will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 243_031 | Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_025 | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_057 | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Space | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_022 | Personal garages at home will disappear | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_013 | Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_012 | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_060 | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_011 | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_056 | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_040 | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_005 | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_038 | Capital assets (cars) will at some point replace some labor (drivers) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_007 | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_005 | Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_010 | Mega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_012 | Corporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_018 | In 5 years, 70-80% of cars will be autonomous, especially hooked up to your AI. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_019 | The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_037 | Handmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 230_041 | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_044 | Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_046 | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_047 | Only 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_049 | Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 231_006 | Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_008 | AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_014 | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_020 | Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_022 | Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_028 | Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_029 | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Other | — |
| prereq | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_033 | Data centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_036 | Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Space | — |
| prereq | 231_038 | TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_052 | Gap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_053 | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_004 | Big banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_006 | YouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 232_019 | AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_026 | World will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_050 | Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_052 | Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_010 | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Defense | — |
| prereq | 234_015 | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_020 | AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_021 | OpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027 | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_035 | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_039 | Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 234_046 | AI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humans | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_004 | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_006 | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_007 | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_012 | Large companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_013 | Disruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_014 | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_017 | OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_036 | AI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 235_044 | AI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_003 | Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_004 | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_006 | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_012 | An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_013 | Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_014 | Publicly traded companies will fire white collar workers very quickly | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_016 | College premium is quickly evaporating | Education | — |
| prereq | 236_017 | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_019 | Human plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longer | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_023 | AI will replace white-collar jobs: 20-50% of 70M US office workers in 12-18 months | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_024 | Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 236_027 | Debt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting up | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_028 | AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 236_029 | Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_031 | Wealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workers | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_035 | Significant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistants | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_041 | Gig work like Uber will be eliminated by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_046 | Social unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to think | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_024 | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_029 | AI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_016 | Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_017 | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_029 | White-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminently | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_048 | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 238_054 | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_061 | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 238_062 | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_065 | Children/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_003 | NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_005 | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_010 | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_016 | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_022 | All five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollars | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_028 | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_048 | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_049 | Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_050 | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_001 | We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_003 | Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_005 | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_009 | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_010 | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companies | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_012 | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_017 | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_027 | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_028 | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_030 | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_036 | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_045 | Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_047 | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_048 | AI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writing | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_049 | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_062 | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_063 | America needs to win AI race with smart immigration policy | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| prereq | 242_010 | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_019 | EVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted version | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 242_024 | Island real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values up | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_032 | AI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near term | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_033 | Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_035 | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 242_042 | Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_049 | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_013 | Every new car sold 10 years from now will have autonomous software | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_029 | Drone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban markets | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_032 | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_035 | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_040 | Suburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone delivery | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_041 | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_042 | Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 243_043 | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_046 | When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 244_002 | Humans will be demonstrably less safe than autonomous drivers (within 25 years, not 15) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_006 | Joby vertiports will need to be designed for mass market with multiple vehicles landing/taking off | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_018 | In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 244_021 | AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 244_022 | Automation will typically augment work rather than replace it | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_023 | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_026 | Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_031 | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_033 | Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_035 | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Other | — |
| prereq | 244_036 | Uber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing) | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_037 | Uber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of work | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_006 | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_026 | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_027 | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_035 | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_045 | Post-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_046 | Real estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years. | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 246_050 | Anthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_051 | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_052 | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_008 | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following year | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_020 | Jobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustment | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_025 | Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_030 | GPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillions | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_032 | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_047 | Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_051 | Solar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robots | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_059 | African nations will be impacted least by AI transition | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_060 | Anthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed base | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_012 | AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_013 | Model transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_015 | Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_016 | ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_017 | Coding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_020 | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_021 | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | Space | — |
| prereq | 248_023 | Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_030 | FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 248_046 | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_037 | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | SEM_049 | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost reductions via iterative self-improvement. | AI/Software | — |
| prereq | 248_050 | Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_019 | Jevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automated | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_048 | Thousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_032 | End-state of AI is abundance and post-scarce labor — path is 'no firewall' | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_043 | Earth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space. | Space | — |
| prereq | 238_053 | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the norm | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_045 | Corporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_024 | Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_002 | Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_006 | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_006 | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_007 | Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_009 | Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 240_011 | NVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being floored | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_019 | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_026 | Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_004 | Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_029 | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildout | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 231_023 | US crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 240_041 | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_035 | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). | AI/Cognition | — |
| prereq | 240_055 | Anthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from Amazon | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_009 | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_010 | Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_009 | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 241_008 | AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_013 | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_018 | First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_022 | Companies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companies | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_028 | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_032 | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_033 | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_034 | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_039 | In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_040 | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_041 | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_046 | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_027 | Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_050 | One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_058 | High-skilled mechanical labor will be one of the last things to go in automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_061 | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_025 | Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_011 | New non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 years | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_016 | TV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban it | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 229_022 | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_025 | 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 242_029 | Typical companies will run with 20-25% of current employees | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_043 | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_036 | Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 243_014 | 10+ autonomous providers will operate on streets of LA a decade from now | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_015 | Software space for autonomous may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_027 | Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 230_017 | Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_033 | About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 243_037 | Drivers will be able to transition to becoming fleet managers/owners of autonomous vehicles | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_006 | The Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_045 | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_008 | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_003 | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 229_015 | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 244_007 | Vertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locations | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 244_012 | Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_013 | Uber will work with Chinese autonomous players (Pony, WeRide, hopefully Baidu) outside the US | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_053 | To create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_017 | Ilia (age 13) will still want a driver's license in 3 years due to slow AV mass production | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_060 | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_014 | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_036 | AI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_034 | Apple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_002 | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_008 | Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loop | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_017 | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_022 | Consulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankind | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_028 | In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_034 | Andrew Yang predicts 20-50% of 70M US white collar workers could be displaced in 1-2 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_027 | Entry-level/couch-potato workers will find it harder to get simple jobs; but entrepreneurial opportunity is unlimited. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_024 | Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 235_001 | Anthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_027 | Uber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasks | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 244_028 | Labor ownership of assets is a positive direction society will move in | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 235_009 | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 235_011 | PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 244_029 | Combustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very different | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_023 | AI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_021 | Zipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_020 | Real danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | SEM_021 | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. | AI/China | — |
| prereq | 235_025 | Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_026 | Snapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 235_034 | Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 229_008 | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_015 | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_042 | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_046 | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 232_013 | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_005 | Anthropic predicts 50% of entry-level white collar jobs automated in 1-5 years | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_011 | Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_015 | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more after | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_025 | Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 246_022 | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_024 | Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_025 | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| prereq | 236_040 | CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 236_044 | Universities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they survive | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_009 | Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_050 | Poverty level around $25K per person going forward | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 232_008 | Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_007 | TikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry. | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 237_003 | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_006 | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_010 | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_011 | AI agents will have voices in the near future. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_012 | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_015 | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 237_017 | The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_032 | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_012 | US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_031 | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_029 | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_023 | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_028 | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_042 | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_028 | AI could automate 25% of US work hours | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 242_030 | Near-future reverse discrimination where humans need not apply for many jobs | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_027 | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 242_034 | AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 236_032 | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 237_007 | Every other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_052 | AI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs later | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_026 | The QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 229_021 | In 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_016 | Super intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_028 | Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_057 | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_008 | App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_045 | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_008 | AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_039 | AI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 235_041 | Anthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_009 | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_022 | Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_045 | Most volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading). | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 232_054 | SSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_056 | Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_044 | There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_039 | 150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 237_016 | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 232_035 | Apple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 237_022 | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_002 | Way more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_027 | 100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people, creating more jobs than FANG layoffs destroy. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_001 | Societal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_005 | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_006 | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_054 | Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 245_035 | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_001 | India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 231_047 | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_020 | The hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_039 | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next year | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_042 | Iris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail stores | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 238_043 | A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_006 | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 245_038 | People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 231_046 | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_051 | If Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_003 | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_059 | Era of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes hold | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_028 | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_034 | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_063 | Automating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flat | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_025 | Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_070 | Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_029 | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_013 | Extrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_019 | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_015 | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_018 | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_032 | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_026 | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_027 | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_033 | David Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 months | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_038 | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_039 | Any company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularity | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_011 | Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_017 | A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_046 | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 248_032 | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 240_051 | After first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people first | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_059 | AI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materials | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_016 | Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_037 | Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_011 | OpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billion | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_010 | China has peaked and is going to be on descent. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 248_049 | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_007 | AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_001 | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_004 | The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_004 | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 247_021 | Net job creation likely, exotic new jobs like one-person AI conglomerates | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_043 | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 231_001 | Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_024 | Voters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AI | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 248_036 | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_025 | Open question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation pace | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 241_035 | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_038 | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_031 | Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 237_021 | Alex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously. | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 237_013 | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 241_042 | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_051 | Amazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex). | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_008 | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_014 | Accountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 230_042 | A pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_023 | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_038 | AI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_036 | New job categories will emerge: target designers, data rights brokers, targeting system shapers. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 229_009 | Within roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_026 | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_003 | AI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_019 | AI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contract | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_045 | GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 234_038 | Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 235_043 | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Defense | — |
| prereq | 240_004 | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 230_002 | AI will automate away CEO labor; a few more years needed for machines to excel at unskilled manual labor. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_011 | Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_058 | Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | AI | — |
| prereq | 245_017 | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_048 | Earth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day. | Space | — |
| prereq | 234_018 | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_003 | Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. | Education | — |
| prereq | 235_010 | Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_006 | Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_037 | Bootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck. | Space | — |
| prereq | 233_009 | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_010 | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_011 | Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_012 | AI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_013 | Not a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 245_028 | Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the field | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_031 | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_004 | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code. | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_018 | Alpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity. | Education | — |
| prereq | 246_030 | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 247_002 | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_026 | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Other | — |
| prereq | 237_030 | Lobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| prereq | 230_039 | Educational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate. | Education | — |
| prereq | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_031 | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_042 | On 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_003 | Within 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralized | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_015 | GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_032 | Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 238_036 | Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 248_018 | Young software developer job decline is self-correcting and has reversed in recent months. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 246_021 | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_018 | Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 231_019 | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. | Other | — |
| prereq | 234_041 | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Other | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_012 | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_009 | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Defense | — |
| prereq | 248_027 | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Other | — |
| prereq | 242_047 | Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 242_048 | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_053 | AI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using it | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 242_055 | Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 240_045 | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 230_023 | Reversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_054 | Real estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI) | Real Estate | — |
| prereq | 247_017 | Some form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventually | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_056 | Net job loss probably not; dynamism with some categories going away | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_005 | Harvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBC | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 234_051 | Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 248_014 | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_048 | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_044 | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_025 | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Other | — |
| prereq | 230_015 | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 234_011 | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Defense | — |
| prereq | 248_002 | LEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years. | Space | — |
| prereq | 235_037 | Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_007 | We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_069 | The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 236_043 | Universities will become largest incubators on the planet | Education | — |
| prereq | 234_036 | Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_043 | Harvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book value | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
| prereq | 233_019 | Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. | Education | — |
| prereq | 232_024 | San Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue. | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 248_029 | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 238_040 | Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_004 | AI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_003 | Multi-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_026 | Anthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agents | AI | — |
| prereq | 236_038 | Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companies | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_003 | Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_019 | Code generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_056 | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for first time in history) | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 231_015 | Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_028 | Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_033 | Meta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 235_035 | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_012 | Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_048 | AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_002 | Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_010 | AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_018 | Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 229_037 | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_040 | AI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with Bitcoin | Crypto | — |
| prereq | 242_056 | AI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businesses | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 247_013 | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | SEM_032 | 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. | AI/Mathematics | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Nvidia hiring reports show headcount 2x (~22K → ~44K 2023-2025). Revenue 4.5x ($27B → $130B FY25). Huang public statements confirm AI-tool deployment across chip-design pipelines. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.657 | arxiv | TensorBench: Benchmarking Coding Agents on a Compiler-Based Tensor Framework | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.648 | arxiv | Text2CAD-Bench: A Benchmark for LLM-based Text-to-Parametric CAD Generation | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.630 | github_release | tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-10-24 |
| 0.630 | github_release | tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc0 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-09-30 |
| 0.629 | github_release | pytorch/pytorch v1.10.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-10-21 |
| 0.629 | github_release | tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc2 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-10-16 |
| 0.628 | github_release | tensorflow/tensorflow v2.18.0-rc1 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-10-07 |
| 0.627 | arxiv | MolViBench: Evaluating LLMs on Molecular Vibe Coding | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.619 | arxiv | TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.617 | github_release | facebookresearch/faiss v1.4.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2018-08-31 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "4x output, 2x headcount",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Huang revealed Nvidia 4x'd chip output with only 2x headcount via AI coding tools across floorplanning, logic verification, timing closure, supply-chain logistics.",
"to_year": 2025,
"conv_cues": "revealed; staggering metric",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2025,
"timeframe": "late 2025",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
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"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
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"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
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{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
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"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
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... (truncated)