By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)How: Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scopeSource: Figure 2026 home pilot roadmapconf 55%
- 2026-04-30 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higherHow: Figure or trade press confirms BotQ throughput at >=1 robot per hour sustained, ~7,000+ annualized capacitySource: eweek BotQ production milestoneconf 70%
- 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)How: Figure or peer-reviewed paper publishes benchmark of Helix VLA model on unseen-home long-horizon tasks with quantitative success rateSource: Figure 03 Helix VLA technical claimsconf 50%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSecond customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)How: Figure announces second named enterprise or consumer-channel partner with deployment SLASource: watch_events_raw '2nd customer deployment count'conf 45%
- 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingHuman intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home tasksHow: Figure publishes telemetry showing average human intervention rate at <= 1 per 24 hours of home operationSource: Adcock verbatim measurement metricconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.43042255353928377,
"kappa": 0.7727,
"base_rate": 0.1,
"predictor": "Brett Adcock",
"total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.6105145716336736,
"bayes_factor": "1.5:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 69% inside / 30% outside (TRF=0.430, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
"inside_prior": 0.3519418261108265,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 2,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.42498500000000006,
"label": "Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.therobotreport.com/figure-ai-designs-figure-03-humanoid-ai-home-use-scaling/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.17231658896934826,
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scope"
},
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.54089,
"label": "Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/figure-03-humanoid-robot-production-helix-ai/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.21931202232462502,
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure or trade press confirms BotQ throughput at >=1 robot per hour sustained, ~7,000+ annualized capacity"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.6987042125225014,
"outside_weight": 0.30129578747749863,
"posterior_prob": 0.20388035222313164,
"posterior_logit": -1.002143182927647,
"predictor_brier": 0.00405,
"inside_posterior": 0.26852025475455527,
"blended_posterior": 0.20388035222313164,
"reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.3916286112939733,
"predictor_n_resolved": 6
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.197 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.188 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.180 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.174 |
| prereq | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20 — Brett Adcock | 42.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.034 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.086 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 24.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?",
"conv_cues": "I think; we'll be able",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "by end of year (2026)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
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"observed_date": "2025-11-30"
},
{
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"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
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},
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"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)",
"source": "Figure 2026 home pilot roadmap",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
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"source_url": "https://www.therobotreport.com/figure-ai-designs-figure-03-humanoid-ai-home-use-scaling/",
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-23",
"from": "2026-05-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scope"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher",
"source": "eweek BotQ production milestone",
"status": "overdue",
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"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/figure-03-humanoid-robot-production-helix-ai/",
"expected_date": "2026-05-27",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ord
... (truncated)