← Cockpit
229_020predictionRoboticshumanoids

By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
20.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
6 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.620

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
0.699
TRF=0.43
Outside weight
0.301
pulling toward base rate
inside 26.9% → blend 20.4% -6.5pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-06-04
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 20.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)
    How: Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scope
    Source: Figure 2026 home pilot roadmapconf 55%
  2. 2026-04-30 → 2026-06-23overdueFigure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher
    How: Figure or trade press confirms BotQ throughput at >=1 robot per hour sustained, ~7,000+ annualized capacity
    Source: eweek BotQ production milestoneconf 70%
  3. 2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFigure publishes Helix unseen-environment benchmark (zero-shot home tasks)
    How: Figure or peer-reviewed paper publishes benchmark of Helix VLA model on unseen-home long-horizon tasks with quantitative success rate
    Source: Figure 03 Helix VLA technical claimsconf 50%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSecond customer for Figure beyond BMW (commercial or consumer)
    How: Figure announces second named enterprise or consumer-channel partner with deployment SLA
    Source: watch_events_raw '2nd customer deployment count'conf 45%
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingHuman intervention rate disclosed at <=1 per day on home tasks
    How: Figure publishes telemetry showing average human intervention rate at <= 1 per 24 hours of home operation
    Source: Adcock verbatim measurement metricconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 20%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-06-04T22:12:05Z20.4%-14.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.269 blend=0.204 LLR=-0.392 κ=0.77 w_in=0.70 humanoid_commercial_volume
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.43042255353928377,
  "kappa": 0.7727,
  "base_rate": 0.1,
  "predictor": "Brett Adcock",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.6105145716336736,
  "bayes_factor": "1.5:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 69% inside / 30% outside (TRF=0.430, base_rate=0.100 from humanoid_commercial_volume)",
  "inside_prior": 0.3519418261108265,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.42498500000000006,
      "label": "Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.therobotreport.com/figure-ai-designs-figure-03-humanoid-ai-home-use-scaling/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.17231658896934826,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scope"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.54089,
      "label": "Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/figure-03-humanoid-robot-production-helix-ai/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.21931202232462502,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure or trade press confirms BotQ throughput at >=1 robot per hour sustained, ~7,000+ annualized capacity"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.6987042125225014,
  "outside_weight": 0.30129578747749863,
  "posterior_prob": 0.20388035222313164,
  "posterior_logit": -1.002143182927647,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00405,
  "inside_posterior": 0.26852025475455527,
  "blended_posterior": 0.20388035222313164,
  "reference_class_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.3916286112939733,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 6
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.2%+1.1pp
Network propagation: 34.1% → 35.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.1%+2.7pp
Network propagation: 31.4% → 34.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z31.4%+5.1pp
Network propagation: 26.3% → 31.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z26.3%-5.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.263 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z31.8%+5.6pp
Network propagation: 26.2% → 31.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z26.2%-23.8pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.262 w_in=0.53 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.500+0.197
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.5000.050+0.188
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050+0.180
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050+0.174
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.5000.050+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.089
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.086
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.079
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050-0.067
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050-0.021

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.715manifoldHow long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? [Polymarket]mentionspending2026-05-15
0.630github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.1mentionspending2021-06-30
0.615manifoldWill the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?82%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.595polymarketWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?81%mentionspending2025-07-11
0.595manifoldWill I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?67%mentionspending2026-05-03
0.595polymarketWill the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?21%mentionspending2025-07-11
0.595manifoldWill I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week?37%mentionspending2026-04-26
0.590polymarketWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?24%mentionspending2026-02-05
0.586polymarketWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?10%mentionspending2026-02-05
0.581manifoldWill I hold a session at Less.Online 202672%mentionspending2026-05-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I think by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home and be able to do fairly long horizon work. And then you want to measure how many like human interventions you have. Is it every it's once an hour or is it once a day, once a week, once a month?",
  "conv_cues": "I think; we'll be able",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by end of year (2026)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 alpha-home pilot announcement (named customer or geographic pilot)",
      "source": "Figure 2026 home pilot roadmap",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.therobotreport.com/figure-ai-designs-figure-03-humanoid-ai-home-use-scaling/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-23",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure AI press release names first non-employee household pilot, with deployment date, locale, and at least one task scope"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 production rate at 1/hour or higher",
      "source": "eweek BotQ production milestone",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/figure-03-humanoid-robot-production-helix-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-27",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-04T22:12:05.653784+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-23",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure or trade press confirms BotQ throughput at >=1 robot per hour sustained, ~7,000+ annualized capacity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ord
... (truncated)