Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.
Watch events: Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules
Verbatim quote
Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-09-01overdueZoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)How: Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoodsSource: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html — Zoox began offering free driverless rides last year around the Las Vegas Stripconf 97%
- 2026-03-11overdueZoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansionHow: Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.htmlconf 99%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingZoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion)How: Zoox publicly opens robotaxi service in Austin and Miami markets per Bloomberg/CNBC reportingSource: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/amazon-zoox-robotaxi-rides-austin-miami.html — Amazon's Zoox to debut robotaxis in Austin, Miami later this yearconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingZoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metroHow: Zoox vehicles publicly reported testing on LA roads with permit/launch cadence consistent with mid-2027 commercial startSource: https://electrek.co/2026/03/24/zoox-expands-current-service-area-and-is-bringing-its-purpose-built-robotaxi-to-two-new-cities/conf 55%
- 2027-04-01 → 2027-10-31pendingZoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027)How: Zoox + Uber announce LA robotaxi rides live for paying usersSource: https://electriccarsreport.com/2026/03/zoox-robotaxis-coming-to-uber-app-in-las-vegas-and-los-angeles/ — partnership debuts in Vegas summer with expansion planned for LA by mid-2027conf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.875,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.5726741004847906,
"bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.36062001936334365,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.6931471805599453,
"kind": "prereq",
"kappa": 0.875,
"label": "Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.",
"weight": 0.5,
"strength": "moderate",
"confidence": null,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
"expected_date": "2026-05-14",
"measurement_criterion": null
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.2352000471716223,
"posterior_logit": -1.1791778834747428,
"predictor_brier": 0.03667,
"inside_posterior": 0.2352000471716223,
"blended_posterior": 0.2352000471716223,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
"predictor_n_resolved": 15
}Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.8684,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.19472773576965302,
"bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.45147131539187846,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 2,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.8423479999999999,
"label": "Zoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.97,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
"expected_date": "2025-09-01",
"measurement_criterion": "Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoods"
},
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.8597159999999999,
"label": "Zoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansion",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.3485848408823186,
"expected_date": "2026-03-11",
"measurement_criterion": "Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.29217265285914285,
"posterior_logit": -0.8848552995366676,
"predictor_brier": 0.02669,
"inside_posterior": 0.29217265285914285,
"blended_posterior": 0.29217265285914285,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.6901275637670146,
"predictor_n_resolved": 14
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.355 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.283 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.271 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.260 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.257 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_020 Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs — Alex Wissner-Gross | 28.7% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.120 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.080 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| prereq | 236_021 Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (E — Elon Musk | 24.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
| prereq | 235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. — Elon Musk | 16.3% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (31)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_001 | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | 241_056 | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_033 | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_027 | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_020 | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_061 | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_022 | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_008 | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated). | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_034 | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_013 | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_020 | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_045 | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_038 | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_042 | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 | Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 | Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_020 | Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_032 | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Robotics | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-12-31 | [Autonomous 2027-12] g toward commercial operations in 2027. [240_037] Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [242_012] Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | pending |
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.607 | gdelt | 984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viral | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.583 | manifold | Will Gratwick's Just Drive production launch on the App Store by June 15, 2026? | 45% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.567 | manifold | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027? | 41% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.562 | manifold | Will Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 2026 | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.555 | manifold | When will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.",
"to_year": 2027,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.",
"conv_cues": "plans to",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "2027",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Zoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)",
"source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html — Zoox began offering free driverless rides last year around the Las Vegas Strip",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.97,
"expected_date": "2025-09-01",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoods"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Zoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansion",
"source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"expected_date": "2026-03-11",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "229_033",
"expected_date": "2026-05-14",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "229_020",
"expected_date": "2026-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "229_030",
"expected_date": "2026-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "229_022",
"expected_date": "2026-07-19",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "229_001",
"expected_date": "2026-07-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "229_008",
... (truncated)