← Cockpit
240_037predictionAuto/Transporthumanoids

Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
23.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
31 / 5
Tickers exposed
31

Prediction text

Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.

Watch events: Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 23.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱ · 8 pending
  1. 2025-09-01overdueZoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)
    How: Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoods
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html — Zoox began offering free driverless rides last year around the Las Vegas Stripconf 97%
  2. 2026-03-11overdueZoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansion
    How: Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.htmlconf 99%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingZoox launches robotaxis in Austin and Miami (own-app expansion)
    How: Zoox publicly opens robotaxi service in Austin and Miami markets per Bloomberg/CNBC reporting
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/24/amazon-zoox-robotaxi-rides-austin-miami.html — Amazon's Zoox to debut robotaxis in Austin, Miami later this yearconf 70%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingZoox commences mapping / pre-deployment testing fleet in Los Angeles metro
    How: Zoox vehicles publicly reported testing on LA roads with permit/launch cadence consistent with mid-2027 commercial start
    Source: https://electrek.co/2026/03/24/zoox-expands-current-service-area-and-is-bringing-its-purpose-built-robotaxi-to-two-new-cities/conf 55%
  5. 2027-04-01 → 2027-10-31pendingZoox robotaxi service publicly launches in Los Angeles via Uber app (mid-2027)
    How: Zoox + Uber announce LA robotaxi rides live for paying users
    Source: https://electriccarsreport.com/2026/03/zoox-robotaxis-coming-to-uber-app-in-las-vegas-and-los-angeles/ — partnership debuts in Vegas summer with expansion planned for LA by mid-2027conf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 24%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z23.5%-12.5pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.235 blend=0.235 LLR=-0.607 κ=0.88 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.6931471805599453,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.5726741004847906,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.36062001936334365,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.6931471805599453,
      "kind": "prereq",
      "kappa": 0.875,
      "label": "Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "strength": "moderate",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-14",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.2352000471716223,
  "posterior_logit": -1.1791778834747428,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.2352000471716223,
  "blended_posterior": 0.2352000471716223,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6065037829899521,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z36.1%+1.1pp
Network propagation: 35.0% → 36.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.0%+2.1pp
Network propagation: 32.9% → 35.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z32.9%+3.7pp
Network propagation: 29.2% → 32.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z29.2%-15.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.292 blend=0.292 LLR=-0.690 κ=0.87 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.19472773576965302,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.45147131539187846,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.8423479999999999,
      "label": "Zoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.341542722884696,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoods"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.8597159999999999,
      "label": "Zoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansion",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3485848408823186,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-11",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.29217265285914285,
  "posterior_logit": -0.8848552995366676,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.29217265285914285,
  "blended_posterior": 0.29217265285914285,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.6901275637670146,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.1%-7.1pp
Network propagation: 52.2% → 45.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z52.2%-12.8pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 52.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK11
Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.355
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.650+0.283
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050+0.271
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050+0.260
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6500.050+0.257

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_020
Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobsAlex Wissner-Gross
28.7%0.4500.050-0.120
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.080
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.068
prereq236_021
Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (EElon Musk
24.0%0.5000.050-0.058
prereq235_032
Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Elon Musk
16.3%0.3500.050-0.025

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMABBNYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYMIELYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

TNETKFYRHIKELYAMAN

Prerequisites (31)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq229_002Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.Robotics
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq229_001Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.Robotics
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereq241_056Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downRobotics
prereq247_0451X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026Robotics
prereq239_033Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the worldRobotics
prereq241_027China will win low-end robotic hardware raceRobotics
prereq248_020Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity.Robotics
prereq241_061China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later)Robotics
prereq229_022Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.Robotics
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics
prereq229_008By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).Biotech/Longevity
prereq229_033Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.Robotics
prereq238_015Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)Robotics
prereq229_030If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).Robotics
prereq229_034Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.Robotics
prereq239_013Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every yearRobotics
prereq229_020By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.Robotics
prereq248_045Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_038We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.Robotics
prereq248_042A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry.Robotics
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028robotaxi_deployment
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026robotaxi_deployment
correlateS_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030robotaxi_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
killerTK11Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq235_020Transition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.Robotics
prereq235_032Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Robotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-12-31[Autonomous 2027-12] g toward commercial operations in 2027. [240_037] Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [242_012] Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 monthspending

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.607gdelt984371 robot dogs elon musk jeff bezos heads viralmentionspending2026-04-30
0.583manifoldWill Gratwick's Just Drive production launch on the App Store by June 15, 2026?45%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.567manifoldWill Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?41%mentionspending2026-05-30
0.562manifoldWill Jannik Sinner play in Rome M1000 202699%mentionspending2026-05-03
0.555manifoldWhen will Romania movie distribuitors will confirm The Amazing Digital Circus?mentionspending2026-05-07

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Amazon's Zuk's Robo Taxi is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in LA in 2027.",
  "conv_cues": "plans to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Zoox debuts robotaxi service via own app in Las Vegas (free rides)",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html — Zoox began offering free driverless rides last year around the Las Vegas Strip",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "expected_date": "2025-09-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Zoox public announcement of free driverless rides operational on the Las Vegas Strip and select SF neighborhoods"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Zoox + Uber partnership announced; Vegas summer 2026 launch + LA 2027 expansion",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/uber-amazon-zoox-partnership-robotaxi-demand.html",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-11",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Joint Zoox/Uber press release announcing multiyear partnership: Las Vegas via Uber app summer 2026, Los Angeles 2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "229_033",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-14",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "229_020",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_030",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "229_022",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "229_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "229_008",
... (truncated)