Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.

Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | the last Neanderthals died out about 40,000 years ago and it's this time right now is the only time we know we only have one uh species of humanoid so there's a case for saying we'll have a bunch more coming at the at the at some point in the future according to one of these or more of these uh splits

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the last Neanderthals died out about 40,000 years ago and it's this time right now is the only time we know we only have one uh species of humanoid so there's a case for saying we'll have a bunch more coming at the at the at some point in the future according to one of these or more of these uh splits

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "multiple new humanoid species",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "we'll have a bunch more coming at the at some point in the future according to one of these or more of these uh splits",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the last Neanderthals died out about 40,000 years ago and it's this time right now is the only time we know we only have one uh species of humanoid so there's a case for saying we'll have a bunch more coming at the at the at some point in the future according to one of these or more of these uh splits",
  "conv_cues": "case for saying",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "long-term future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "248_045",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "239_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Optimus 3 begins production at Fremont (summer 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-optimus-production-fremont-model-sx-line/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces start of Optimus 3 production at Fremont; corroborated by Electrek/Reuters supply-chain reporting."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First peer-reviewed paper on multi-modal embodied 'general' robot intelligence",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
  
... (truncated)