Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source
Prediction text
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.
Verbatim quote
Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.
Resolution evidence
Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.22862000000000005,
"inside_posterior": 0.77138,
"validation_notes": "Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.77138,
"resolution_evidence": "Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 229_033 Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to ru — Brett Adcock | 40.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.243 |
| prereq | SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20 — Brett Adcock | 42.3% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.237 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.079 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | +0.047 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.308 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.200 |
| prereq | 229_030 If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they coul — Brett Adcock | 17.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.168 |
| prereq | 239_011 Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 — Elon Musk | 22.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.147 |
| prereq | 241_056 Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive r — Peter Diamandis | 31.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.118 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_058 | Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trial | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (16)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_056 | Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs down | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_027 | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_020 | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_045 | Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_034 | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_012 | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_038 | We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 248_042 | A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 235_032 | Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. | Robotics | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | [Robotics 2026-04] [247_042] Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | missed |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "50 meter race",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "on April 19th...is going to hold the country's first professional robotics league match",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.",
"conv_cues": "is going to hold",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "April 19, 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
"status": "partial",
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"observed_date": "2025-11-30"
},
{
"kind": "event",
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"status": "hit",
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.",
"status": "pending",
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"expected_date": "2026-06-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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"status": "pending",
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"ordinal": 3,
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"expected_date": "2026-07-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)",
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"source_id": "238_015",
"expected_date": "2026-07-26",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "235_032",
"expected_date": "2031-09-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 6,
"source_id": "236_021",
"expected_date": "2032-12-15",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Professional Robotics League",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 247,
"granularity": "EXACT_DATE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.891675+00:00",
"target_date": "2026-04-19",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-14",
"parse_method": "EXACT_DATE parsed",
"domain_bucket": "Robotics",
"episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
"fault_line_id": "F005",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "247",
"consensus_size": 6,
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C1",
"C5",
"C8"
],
"active_end_month": "2026-04",
"cluster_avg_grade": 4.17,
"months_from_today": 0,
"repeat_cluster_id": "C016",
"active_start_month": "2026-04",
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"resolved_at_sour
... (truncated)