← Cockpit
247_042predictionRoboticshumanoids

Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
65.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30
Edges in / out
7 / 16
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 65.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓
  1. 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 65%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z65.0%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 66.2% → 65.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z66.2%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 68.4% → 66.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z68.4%-3.7pp
Network propagation: 72.0% → 68.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z72.0%-5.1pp
Network propagation: 77.1% → 72.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z77.1%-7.1pp
Network propagation: 84.2% → 77.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z84.2%-7.8pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 84.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+22.9pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.771
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.22862000000000005,
  "inside_posterior": 0.77138,
  "validation_notes": "Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.77138,
  "resolution_evidence": "Professional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq229_033
Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to ruBrett Adcock
40.4%0.9200.050-0.243
prereqSEM_041
At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 20Brett Adcock
42.3%0.9200.050-0.237
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.920+0.079
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.9200.050+0.062
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.9200.050+0.047

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.308
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.200
prereq229_030
If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they coulBrett Adcock
17.1%0.5000.050+0.168
prereq239_011
Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk
22.5%0.5500.050+0.147
prereq241_056
Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive rPeter Diamandis
31.8%0.6500.050+0.118

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq247_058Jury selection begins April 27, 2026 for Musk v OpenAI trialAI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereq229_033Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.Robotics
prereqSEM_041At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Robotics
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (16)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_056Elon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downRobotics
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq241_027China will win low-end robotic hardware raceRobotics
prereq248_020Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity.Robotics
prereq238_015Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)Robotics
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics
prereq248_045Another humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.Biotech/Longevity
prereq229_034Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.Robotics
prereq236_021Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)Robotics
prereq239_012Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics
prereq229_030If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).Robotics
prereq248_038We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.Robotics
prereq248_042A sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry.Robotics
prereq235_032Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.Robotics

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2026-04-30[Robotics 2026-04] [247_042] Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Bostonmissed

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importProfessional Robotics League April 19 2026 Boston Marathon weekend race — consistent with Alex's announced plan and event history.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.662manifoldSub-2 World Marathon Majors 2026-2029mentionspending2026-04-27
0.635polymarketWill Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?1%mentionspending2025-12-24
0.633polymarketDota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs46%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.627polymarketCounter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs SPARTA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs100%mentionspending2026-05-03
0.623polymarketTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.551%mentionspending2026-05-07
0.620polymarketTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox54%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.618polymarketTampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox46%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.618polymarketLoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs71%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.618polymarketCounter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs100%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.618polymarketGame Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)51%mentionspending2026-05-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "50 meter race",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "on April 19th...is going to hold the country's first professional robotics league match",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Professional Robotics League, which next on April 19th, so 9 days from when we're recording the weekend of the Boston Marathon is going to hold the the country's first professional robotics league match with robots racing 50 meters in the Boston Seapport.",
  "conv_cues": "is going to hold",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "April 19, 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_041",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "229_034",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "229_030",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "239_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "238_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "235_032",
      "expected_date": "2031-09-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 6,
      "source_id": "236_021",
      "expected_date": "2032-12-15",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Professional Robotics League",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "EXACT_DATE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.891675+00:00",
  "target_date": "2026-04-19",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14",
  "parse_method": "EXACT_DATE parsed",
  "domain_bucket": "Robotics",
  "episode_title": "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247",
  "fault_line_id": "F005",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "247",
  "consensus_size": 6,
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C5",
    "C8"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2026-04",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.17,
  "months_from_today": 0,
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C016",
  "active_start_month": "2026-04",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_sour
... (truncated)