Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.
Verbatim quote
So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 202 — Alex Wissner-Gross | 65.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.041 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| killer | TK08 Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | 22.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.011 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.006 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly — Peter Diamandis | 12.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.153 |
| prereq | 240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 — Peter Diamandis | 23.5% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.045 |
| prereq | 247_043 Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US — Alex Wissner-Gross | 26.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| prereq | 241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots — Eric Schmidt | 27.9% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | 239_011 Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 — Elon Musk | 22.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.017 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_042 | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Robotics | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 | Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK08 | Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_019 | Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 240_037 | Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_029 | Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1 robot / 30 min",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we're spinning up Baku like production enormously right now for Figure 3. So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.",
"conv_cues": "trying to get there",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "247_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_034",
"expected_date": "2026-06-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "239_011",
"expected_date": "2026-07-20",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "235_019",
"expected_date": "2027-06-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 3,
"source_id": "240_037",
"expected_date": "2027-09-03",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 4,
"source_id": "247_043",
"expected_date": "2028-06-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 5,
"source_id": "241_029",
"expected_date": "2030-06-24",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliatio
... (truncated)