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229_034predictionRoboticshumanoids

Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
39.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓
  1. 2026-07-20pendingOptimus 3 production starts summer 2026

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z39.0%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 39.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.0%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 41.6% → 40.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.6%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 43.7% → 41.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.7%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 46.6% → 43.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.6%-3.4pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_042
Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 202Alex Wissner-Gross
65.0%0.5000.050-0.051
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5000.050-0.041
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5000.050-0.013
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.500+0.011
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.006

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_019
Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly Peter Diamandis
12.8%0.6500.050+0.153
prereq240_037
Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis
23.5%0.6500.050+0.045
prereq247_043
Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of USAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.5000.050-0.039
prereq241_029
Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots Eric Schmidt
27.9%0.6000.050-0.018
prereq239_011
Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Elon Musk
22.5%0.5500.050+0.017

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq247_042Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in BostonRobotics
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_019Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Robotics
prereq240_037Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Auto/Transport
prereq241_029Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeRobotics
prereq239_011Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026Robotics
prereq247_043Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorRobotics

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 robot / 30 min",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we're spinning up Baku like production enormously right now for Figure 3. So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "So you said something like uh a a robot every 30 minutes you expect? We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now.",
  "conv_cues": "trying to get there",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "247_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "229_034",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "239_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Fast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "235_019",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "240_037",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "247_043",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_029",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-24",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliatio
... (truncated)