S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026scenariohumanoid_deployment
Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026
Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
40.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 38
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
First cumulative milestone. Figure 03 production ramp + Optimus Gen 3 demos + 1X NEO. Brett Adcock claims 100K production capacity Q4 2026.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
Linked
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_044 Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Syste — Alex Wissner-Gross | 31.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.087 |
| prereq | 239_014 Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory — Elon Musk | 32.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.077 |
| prereq | COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production ru — Codex Research Pack | 30.9% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
| prereq | COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 20 — Codex Research Pack | 31.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (38)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_ROB_002 | 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | COD_ROB_001 | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_014 | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 238_044 | Mouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon Systems | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | CMQ_053 | Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CYB_018 | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_001 | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_050 | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_045 | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_005 | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_003 | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_017 | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 239_011 | Optimus 3 production starts summer 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_046 | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_016 | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_014 | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_023 | First Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_034 | Robot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 236_021 | Optimus/humanoid robots to do trades work in 3 to 8 years (Elon's vision) | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 239_013 | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 239_012 | Optimus reaches high volume production by summer 2027 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_008 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | INF_025 | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_051 | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AI_030 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_022 | Elon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_009 | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,000 retail price — a $30K capital expenditure for a 24/7-capable machine represents a 36-week payback period vs the lowest US minimum wage; fundamentally alters the mathematics ... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_054 | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a 'future of abundance', theoretically eliminating poverty by collapsing cost of physical goods and services. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | AUT_013 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-50% of the United States by end of 2026 — initial production slow but deployment scales to capture multi-trillion-dollar transportation market. Humanoid robots (Optimus) event... | Auto/Transport | — |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotics_phase_r1",
"fork_key": "humanoid",
"dimension": "humanoid_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Humanoid deployment",
"family_order": 1,
"predictor_profile": [
"Brett Adcock",
"Tesla",
"Figure",
"1X"
],
"cumulative_milestone": true
}