← Cockpit
229_014predictionRoboticshumanoids

Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
34.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
29

Prediction text

Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. | Like we're spinning up resources right now both at Baky you're seeing now and future Bakyu to basically be able to make like millions of robots.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
Like we're spinning up resources right now both at Baky you're seeing now and future Bakyu to basically be able to make like millions of robots.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.608

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 34.7% → blend 34.7% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 7 pending
  1. 2026-04-15hitFigure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate at BotQ
    How: Figure publicly confirms BotQ achieves one Figure 03 humanoid per hour throughput
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour - one robot/hour confirmed April 2026conf 99%
  2. 2026-10-07pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2026-08-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFigure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robots
    How: Figure announces cumulative Figure 03 production crossing 1,000 units
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up - exponential ramp from January 2026conf 65%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingBotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/year
    How: Figure (or independent reporting) confirms BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity >=12,000 robots/year (the stated near-term ceiling)
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/botq - BotQ first-gen line capable of up to 12,000 humanoids/yearconf 75%
  5. 2027-03-17pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  6. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingBaku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announced
    How: Figure publicly announces BotQ-2 (Baku or successor) site selection, groundbreaking, or first equipment install
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/botq - BotQ-2 / Baku 50,000/year capacity referenced as next-step expansionconf 55%
  7. 2027-08-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2028-11-30pendingCumulative Figure production reaches 100,000 over 4-year horizon
    How: Figure cumulative robot production crosses 100,000 units (the stated 4-year goal)
    Source: Figure AI public production roadmap; Adcock public statementsconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — '1 million' parent prediction requires this 100k floor first; 1m by 2028 is unlikely.
  9. 2028-11-30pendingMillions of robots NOT achieved by 2028-11-30
    How: By target end, Figure cumulative production remains below 1,000,000 units
    Source: Math: 12,000/yr first-gen line + 50,000/yr Baku = ~62,000/yr ceiling. Even 4 years at 50k = 200k. 1M unattainable.conf 85%
    Notes: Bear-case anchor — Adcock 'millions' is aspirational; arithmetic likely gates resolution to MISS by 2028.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z34.7%+1.9pp
Network propagation: 32.9% → 34.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z32.9%+3.5pp
Network propagation: 29.4% → 32.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z29.4%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z18.6%-10.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z29.3%+10.8pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z18.6%-36.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK08
Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)
22.0%0.0500.550+0.093
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
50.0%0.5500.050-0.047

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

29 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

LYSCFSERVFANUYMPNVDAHSEHYRNSHFALNTCGNXIRBTUSARSYMMIELYAMZNBYDDYHYMTFIFNNYABBNYPHSTMTELTERTSLATXN

Adverse (5)

RHIMANKELYAKFYTNET

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
correlateS_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026humanoid_deployment
killerTK08Humanoid Capital Collapse (Figure/Apptronik Flop)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packFigure - Ramping Figure 03 Productioncorroboratespending2026-04-29
0.750codex_research_packFigure - BotQ: A High-Volume Manufacturing Facility for Humanoid Robotscorroboratespending2025-03-16
0.684manifoldWill 2+ bots beat master league in 2026?32%mentionspending2026-05-27
0.641manifoldWill I be able to build a bot that achieves #1 on the Gen 9 1v1 ladderboard on Pokemon Showdown before the end of 2026?38%mentionspending2026-05-12

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "millions of robots",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We're going to make a ton of robots. Like we're spinning up resources right now both at Baky you're seeing now and future Bakyu to basically be able to make like millions of robots.",
  "verbatim": "Like we're spinning up resources right now both at Baky you're seeing now and future Bakyu to basically be able to make like millions of robots.",
  "conv_cues": "spinning up; to be able to make",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure 03 production reaches 1 robot/hour rate at BotQ",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour - one robot/hour confirmed April 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/24x-throughput-figure-scales-manufacturing-to-one-robot-per-hour",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly confirms BotQ achieves one Figure 03 humanoid per hour throughput"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure cumulative production crosses 1,000 robots",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up - exponential ramp from January 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-shape-of-scale-new-figure-production-data-hints-at-exponential-ramp-up",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-08-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces cumulative Figure 03 production crossing 1,000 units"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity reaches 12,000 robots/year",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/botq - BotQ first-gen line capable of up to 12,000 humanoids/year",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/botq",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure (or independent reporting) confirms BotQ first-gen line annualized capacity >=12,000 robots/year (the stated near-term ceiling)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Baku BotQ-2 facility broken ground / construction announced",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/botq - BotQ-2 / Baku 50,000/year capac
... (truncated)