S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028scenariohumanoid_deployment
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
50.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
0 / 59
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Broad enterprise deployment. Requires sustained 50K+/yr production + proven cost-of-ownership. Brett Adcock's 'BotQ scaling' claim.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
Linked
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 245_012 UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal — Ben Lamm | 66.8% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.183 |
| prereq | 229_040 When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're — Dave Blundin | 43.5% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.135 |
| prereq | 239_024 Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's — Elon Musk | 43.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.133 |
| prereq | 229_024 Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,0 — Brett Adcock | 40.5% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.130 |
| prereq | 234_049 First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via h — Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.2% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (59)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 245_012 | UAE's Biovault is a nine-figure initiative for both Colossal and the UAE | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_005 | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_050 | Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_012 | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | COD_ROB_003 | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_014 | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_016 | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_031 | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_040 | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_042 | Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_045 | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 236_022 | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 239_024 | Everyone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest person | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 229_044 | Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_011 | The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 229_019 | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_024 | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 234_049 | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot construction | Space | — |
| prereq | 229_035 | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets. | Space | — |
| prereq | 229_038 | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock). | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_053 | Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CYB_018 | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing SpaceX's 2020 valuation — backed by concentrated collective capital of the AI hardware-software industry (Microsoft, NVIDIA, OpenAI), signaling industry-wide belief that humanoid r... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_001 | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_002 | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | AI_003 | AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decade to reach $100 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) into just 12-24 months — an unprecedented monetization velocity. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | ROB_018 | The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corporation where robots contribute more to the bottom line than human employees; by end of 2025 Amazon had deployed over 1 million robots while human hiring plateaued, decoupling c... | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | FUT_004 | Rapid ascension and enterprise dominance of Large Action Models (LAMs) by 2026-2031 — LLM as primary digital interface becomes obsolete; LAMs observe complex behavioral patterns, internalize multi-step business processes, predict physical-robot mainten... | AI | — |
| correlate | AUT_021 | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms specifically designed to clean/structure/continuously validate multimodal data — unstructured corporate sludge (PDFs, logs, videos, emails) causes autonomous agentic workflows t... | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_050 | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — projected to scale rapidly and commercially between 2025-2030. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_014 | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | 239_003 | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | AI | — |
| correlate | 248_020 | Jevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_021 | Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 235_005 | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | AI | — |
| correlate | ROB_005 | True AGI requires 'physical intelligence' — an AGI system must be able to control a robotic chassis to play sports or perform complex physical manipulations at amazing levels to truly mirror human brain architecture; software alone cannot achieve full ... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 238_015 | Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_033 | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_017 | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_001 | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 240_038 | Amazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humans | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | 229_010 | Eventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 229_030 | If Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 232_005 | Big enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | 234_032 | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_043 | Humanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sector | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_007 | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point transitioning from retrieval to reasoning/agentic AI — however the subsequent wave, 'Physical AI' for industrial and robotics applications, represents a vastly larger $50 trilli... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | ROB_008 | Humanoid robotics market will reach $5 trillion by 2050 (excluding massive secondary supply chains for repair/maintenance/support). Nearly 1 billion humanoid robots operating globally by 2050, 90% used for industrial/commercial purposes vs domestic — m... | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SPC_028 | Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | 234_025 | Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_027 | Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor | AI | — |
| correlate | CMQ_052 | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/month for a 24/7 robotic laborer, fundamentally altering physical-labor economics. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 247_044 | Humanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environments | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 230_007 | Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | SEM_041 | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). | Robotics | — |
| correlate | CMQ_051 | Humanoid robots total addressable market by 2040: lower bound 1 billion units (exceeding cars on Earth); upper bound 10+ billion units. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | INF_025 | Figure AI targets deployment of 100,000 general-purpose humanoid robots by 2029, networked to a centralized 'universal brain' capable of controlling any robot body on Earth — requiring continuous high-bandwidth DC-to-edge data streams. | Robotics | — |
| correlate | IND_007 | Massive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a... | Labor/Jobs | — |
| correlate | AI_030 | By 2035, synthetic humanoid workers will physically outnumber human employees in corporate workplaces — completing the transition from partial-automation co-deployment to majority-synthetic corporate workforces. | Robotics | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.632 | manifold | Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20? | 80% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.629 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.4 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-03-31 |
| 0.628 | manifold | Will Terminator2 have at least 200 Moltbook followers by 2026-05-18? | 83% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.616 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-06-30 |
| 0.603 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-07-30 |
| 0.601 | edgar_8k | EKSO BIONICS HOLDINGS, INC. (EKSO) (CIK 0001549084) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.600 | edgar_8k | RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.597 | arxiv | ProSPy: A Profiling-Driven SQL-Python Agentic Framework for Enterprise Text-to-SQL | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.597 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v4.56.2 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-09-17 |
| 0.589 | edgar_8k | Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV) (CIK 0001832483) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "robotics_phase_r2",
"fork_key": "humanoid",
"dimension": "humanoid_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Humanoid deployment",
"family_order": 2,
"cumulative_milestone": true
}