← Cockpit
229_042predictionAIAI-scaling

Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.

Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
40.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
6 / 0
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229"
We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.

Predictor: Brett Adcock

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.773
Brier
0.0040
excellent
Hits / Misses
5 / 0
of 6 resolved
Hit rate
83.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume

Linked via embedding similarity 0.553

>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut

Base rate
10.0%
0/3 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 40.4% → blend 40.4% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2025-02-20hitFigure releases Helix VLA omni-model (vision + language + action)
    How: Figure announces VLA model unifying vision, language, and continuous high-rate humanoid control in single neural net
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix — Helix VLA model announcementconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Helix is exactly the omni-model fusion Adcock described. First VLA with high-rate continuous full-upper-body control.
  2. 2025-02-20hitHelix demonstrated on dual-robot shared task (omni-model generalization)
    How: Single Helix model controls two robots simultaneously on shared long-horizon manipulation task with novel objects
    Source: https://www.figure.ai/news/helixconf 99%
  3. 2026-02-15hitHelix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestone
    How: Figure announces Helix 02 with measurable code-deletion milestone (≥100K LOC) replaced by neural net
    Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomyconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 109,504 lines C++ deleted. System 0 = neural-net controller for balance/contact/coordination. Validates Adcock's 'one model' framing.
  4. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingHark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03
    How: Figure publicly demos integrated omni-model spanning natural language voice → reasoning → motor control on Figure 03
    Source: Humanoids Daily — 'Adcock Triad' coverage; Hark integrationconf 85%
  5. 2026-10-18pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  6. 2027-04-08pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2026-09-01 → 2028-09-30pendingSingle foundation model published spanning ≥4 robotic embodiments commercially
    How: Public release of foundation model demonstrating cross-embodiment competence (≥4 different robots) in commercial deployment
    Source: Figure roadmap, NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Nano Omni, OmniVLA papersconf 50%
    Notes: Cascade — operationalizes Adcock's 'one omni model' as the dominant paradigm vs specialized nets per task.
  8. 2027-09-26pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z40.4%+1.6pp
Network propagation: 38.7% → 40.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z38.7%+3.2pp
Network propagation: 35.6% → 38.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z35.6%+5.9pp
Network propagation: 29.7% → 35.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z29.7%+11.1pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z18.6%-11.1pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z29.6%+11.1pp
Network propagation: 18.6% → 29.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z18.6%-36.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.186 w_in=0.30 humanoid_commercial_volume

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028
Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028
50.0%0.5500.050-0.104
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.096
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.086
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.071
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.029

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028humanoid_deployment
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1 omni model",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Is there two different models then driving it? The the VLM model for the body and the physics and the embodiment versus an LLM for conversation and memory. We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model.",
  "verbatim": "We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.",
  "conv_cues": "we believe",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "end of the day (future)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure releases Helix VLA omni-model (vision + language + action)",
      "notes": "HIT — Helix is exactly the omni-model fusion Adcock described. First VLA with high-rate continuous full-upper-body control.",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix — Helix VLA model announcement",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
      "expected_date": "2025-02-20",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces VLA model unifying vision, language, and continuous high-rate humanoid control in single neural net"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix demonstrated on dual-robot shared task (omni-model generalization)",
      "source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
      "expected_date": "2025-02-20",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Single Helix model controls two robots simultaneously on shared long-horizon manipulation task with novel objects"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestone",
      "notes": "HIT — 109,504 lines C++ deleted. System 0 = neural-net controller for balance/contact/coordination. Validates Adcock's 'one model' framing.",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure announces Helix 02 with measurable code-deletion milestone (≥100K LOC) replaced by neural net"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03",
      "source": "Humanoids Daily — 'Adcock Triad' coverage; Hark integration",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly demos integrated omni-model spanning natural language voice → reasoning → motor control on Figure 03"
    },
    {
    
... (truncated)