Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. | We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-02-20hitFigure releases Helix VLA omni-model (vision + language + action)How: Figure announces VLA model unifying vision, language, and continuous high-rate humanoid control in single neural netSource: https://www.figure.ai/news/helix — Helix VLA model announcementconf 99%Notes: HIT — Helix is exactly the omni-model fusion Adcock described. First VLA with high-rate continuous full-upper-body control.
- 2025-02-20hitHelix demonstrated on dual-robot shared task (omni-model generalization)How: Single Helix model controls two robots simultaneously on shared long-horizon manipulation task with novel objectsSource: https://www.figure.ai/news/helixconf 99%
- 2026-02-15hitHelix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestoneHow: Figure announces Helix 02 with measurable code-deletion milestone (≥100K LOC) replaced by neural netSource: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomyconf 95%Notes: HIT — 109,504 lines C++ deleted. System 0 = neural-net controller for balance/contact/coordination. Validates Adcock's 'one model' framing.
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingHark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03How: Figure publicly demos integrated omni-model spanning natural language voice → reasoning → motor control on Figure 03Source: Humanoids Daily — 'Adcock Triad' coverage; Hark integrationconf 85%
- 2026-10-18pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-04-08pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2028-09-30pendingSingle foundation model published spanning ≥4 robotic embodiments commerciallyHow: Public release of foundation model demonstrating cross-embodiment competence (≥4 different robots) in commercial deploymentSource: Figure roadmap, NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Nano Omni, OmniVLA papersconf 50%Notes: Cascade — operationalizes Adcock's 'one omni model' as the dominant paradigm vs specialized nets per task.
- 2027-09-26pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | 50.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.104 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.096 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.086 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.071 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.029 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 | Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "1 omni model",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "Is there two different models then driving it? The the VLM model for the body and the physics and the embodiment versus an LLM for conversation and memory. We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model.",
"verbatim": "We believe we believe this all comes down to like one model at the end of the day that is uh one omni model that is uh trained early in uh pre-training that helps fuse all this together.",
"conv_cues": "we believe",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "end of the day (future)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Figure releases Helix VLA omni-model (vision + language + action)",
"notes": "HIT — Helix is exactly the omni-model fusion Adcock described. First VLA with high-rate continuous full-upper-body control.",
"source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix — Helix VLA model announcement",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
"expected_date": "2025-02-20",
"observed_date": "2025-02-20",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Figure announces VLA model unifying vision, language, and continuous high-rate humanoid control in single neural net"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helix demonstrated on dual-robot shared task (omni-model generalization)",
"source": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/helix",
"expected_date": "2025-02-20",
"observed_date": "2025-02-20",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Single Helix model controls two robots simultaneously on shared long-horizon manipulation task with novel objects"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helix 02 deletes 109K lines hand-engineered C++ — 'Software 2.0' milestone",
"notes": "HIT — 109,504 lines C++ deleted. System 0 = neural-net controller for balance/contact/coordination. Validates Adcock's 'one model' framing.",
"source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-end-of-c-brett-adcock-on-helix-02-and-figure-s-path-to-room-scale-autonomy",
"expected_date": "2025-12-30",
"observed_date": "2026-02-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-04-30",
"from": "2025-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure announces Helix 02 with measurable code-deletion milestone (≥100K LOC) replaced by neural net"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Hark omni-model (speech + reasoning + action) integrated in Figure 03",
"source": "Humanoids Daily — 'Adcock Triad' coverage; Hark integration",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/the-adcock-triad-inside-the-1m-a-month-sprint-to-general-robotics",
"expected_date": "2026-07-02",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Figure publicly demos integrated omni-model spanning natural language voice → reasoning → motor control on Figure 03"
},
{
... (truncated)