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NVDA

NVIDIA · Nasdaq · USA

Cap tier
Mega
Approx cap
$3500.0B
Bull scenarios
899
Adverse scenarios
0
Other links
0
Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 899 public links lack move; 0 lack probability

Themes & clusters

From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix
C280 GW AI Buildout Target (US)Application-Specific Chip DesignsBenchmarks and evals (targeting systems)Data Center Cooling (closed-loop water)Diffusion models/diffusion transformersEnclaved Key IsolationFab Process Nodes (1.6nm/2nm/3nm/5nm)Federated learning / fleet learningFoundation model agent teams / multi-agent orchestrationGB200 / GB300 GPUsGPUs / VRAMHBM3E memory (and HBM4)Multi-robot coordination / fleet management softwareOn-device inference (future target)Openweight models (Chinese)Photonic and subatomic computing substratesReasoning ModelsSynthetic training dataTSMC 2nm nodeTSMC 3nm nodeVision-Language-Action (VLA) model

Investment thesis

From SRC_B Company Master

The single most cross-cutting name in the picks-and-shovels universe — 20+ themes.

Bull scenarios (899)

Predictions where this ticker benefits
PredRoleDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactStatus
INF_011pure_playMacro/EconomyMega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in the 2025-2026 period alone, with roughly half financed via debt — intertwining AI buildout risk with global credit markets.Morgan Stanley92.3%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_026pure_playSemisNVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence.Jensen Huang87.1%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_003pure_playEnergy/ComputeFierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade.Leopold Aschenbrenner85.7%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_034pure_playSemis/MemoryHBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion.Morgan Stanley83.9%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_024pure_playSemis/MarketsMemory stocks are THE primary beneficiary of the semiconductor growth cycle extending into 2026 ('Memory Wall' dominant constraint).Joseph Moore81.8%unknownunknownin_progress
AUT_016pure_playAINVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost of generating AI tokens to 1/10 of previous architectures. Autonomous reasoning model 'Alpamayo' shifts self-driving technology from fragile rule-based coding to verifiable l...Jensen Huang81.0%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_004pure_playInvestingCapital should rotate FROM software developers TO data-center compute, power infrastructure, semi supply chains, and repurposed Bitcoin mining facilities.Leopold Aschenbrenner77.4%unknownunknownin_progress
ROB_026pure_playDefenseAutonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds far surpassing the defensive capabilities of human security teams — bad actors will utilize the same multi-agent paradigms that enable legitimate corporate organizations, targ...Alex Finn77.1%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_015pure_playEnergyPower Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will transition from secondary facility metrics to the top operational KPIs for DC operators — mandating liquid-to-chip and two-phase immersion cooling as default hardware.Morgan Stanley76.9%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_022pure_playAISupply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ...Alex Wissner-Gross75.9%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_033pure_playSemis/MemoryGlobal HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute critical resource constraint in the AI compute supply chain.Morgan Stanley75.1%unknownunknownpending
AI_017pure_playSemisNVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut...Jensen Huang74.8%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_020pure_playSemisNvidia preemptively reserved 800,000-850,000 TSMC wafers for 2026 — 8x SMIC's entire advanced-process capacity.Nvidia (All-In Podcast analysis)74.2%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_029pure_playSemis/MemoryDRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all you can make'.Jensen Huang74.1%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_013pure_playPolicy/SemisEvery nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential.Jensen Huang73.0%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_028pure_playSemisNVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026).Jensen Huang72.4%unknownunknownpending
SEM_005pure_playAI/InfrastructureStargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership).Sam Altman72.3%unknownunknownin_progress
SPC_019pure_playGeopoliticsAerospace-sector manufacturing base is being aggressively reoriented away from China — reflecting a new 'metageography of development' where national actors secure critical aerospace supply chains (tungsten, copper, rare earths) via political borders a...Peter Dannenberg71.8%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_041pure_playSemis/MemoryReallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market.Morgan Stanley71.4%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_026pure_playSemis/ProductsNvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM.Joseph Moore71.4%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_039pure_playSemis/PackagingTSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafers/month by 2026 to meet baseline demand from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler ASICs.Morgan Stanley70.9%unknownunknownpending
SEM_047pure_playAI/HardwareAt 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run.Jimmy Ba70.6%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_026pure_playAI'Software 3.0' LLM infrastructure will operate like public utilities — requiring massive upfront capex (training compute, specialized hardware), specialized networking protocols for synchrony across hundreds of thousands of GPUs, and flawless uninterru...Andrej Karpathy69.9%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_008pure_playSemisHyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps from approximately 8% of total AI capex (2023) to 30% by end-2026 — High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM face severe structural supply constraints with DRAM prices more than doub...Morgan Stanley68.8%unknownunknownin_progress
IND_012pure_playBiotech/LongevityNVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical...Jensen Huang68.1%unknownunknownin_progress
FUT_023pure_playGeopolitics'Demographic bifurcation' 2026-2031: widening divides in size, growth, and structure of populations globally — creates extreme socioeconomic friction between aging wealthy nations (US, EU, Japan, Korea, China) and younger resource-starved regions (Afri...Ian Bremmer68.1%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_036pure_playSemis/MemorySK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026.Morgan Stanley68.0%unknownunknownpartial
CMQ_035pure_playSemis/MemoryHBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities.Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley67.5%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_020pure_playMacro/EconomyNearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026.Morgan Stanley67.2%unknownunknownpending
SEM_031pure_playSemis/HardwareAI boom will cause severe cascading shortages in memory and GPUs — violently driving hardware prices up across enterprise and consumer segments.Alex Wissner-Gross67.1%unknownunknownin_progress
ROB_021pure_playGeopoliticsThe United States is locked in a fierce physical engineering race with China — China operates with 'incredible speed at massive scale' in hardware-heavy sectors (advanced batteries, high-speed rail, commercial robotics); failure to digitize the industr...Marc Andreessen66.6%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_015pure_playPolicy/SemisNvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Jensen Huang66.3%unknownunknownin_progress
SPC_018pure_playMarkets/StocksFive North America-linked miners — MP Materials, Almonty Industries, Freeport-McMoRan, Alcoa, Teck Resources — are critical dependencies for the emerging space hardware supply chain: copper (regenerative cooling channels, Raptor/BE-4 pressure scaling),...Morgan Stanley65.2%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_044pure_playAI/ComputeFuture data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require 1:2 or even 2:1 CPU-to-GPU ratio (vs historical 1:12) to prevent GPU idle-waiting.Morgan Stanley65.0%unknownunknownpending
AI_014pure_playAIA new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrastructure was built for human-speed traffic; the new internet must handle agent-speed workloads (recursive, bursty, massive). The 'screen time' KPI dies: future software will be...Marc Andreessen65.0%unknownunknownin_progress
INF_035pure_playSemisAdvanced U.S. manufacturing capacity for 3D-printed liquid-cooling plates will scale rapidly — Fabric8Labs secured $50M (NEA + Intel Capital) specifically to address the AI-DC thermal bottleneck with electrochemically-deposited intricate cold-plate geo...Fabric8Labs (NEA / Intel Capital funded)64.9%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_017pure_playSemisTSMC will produce over 10M wafers/month total in 2026, including ~100K/mo at 2nm and ~200K/mo at 3nm.TSMC (All-In Podcast analysis)64.8%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_020pure_playSpaceStarlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe approvals — establishes a ubiquitous, high-bandwidth data canopy essential for routing planetary-scale AI agent communications without terrestrial fiber-optic latency.Gwynne Shotwell64.8%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_022pure_playAI/ArchitectureFP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development.Dave Blundin64.5%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_006pure_playAI/FinanceOpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by advanced-chip acquisition and facility construction.Sam Altman63.5%unknownunknownpartial
SPC_017pure_playAIStartups capable of cleaning, structuring, and validating multimodal data pipelines (video, telemetry, Earth-observation) will unlock enterprise value of space-based observations — unstructured multimodal data causes AI agent workflows to hallucinate o...Jennifer Li63.3%unknownunknownin_progress
CMQ_046pure_playSemis/MemorySustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 15-45 exabytes of DRAM demand by 2027 — up to 77% of global supply.Morgan Stanley62.7%unknownunknownpending
SEM_023pure_playSemis/MarketsNo AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027.Joseph Moore62.6%unknownunknownpending
229_001pure_playRoboticsFigure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots.Brett Adcock62.3%unknownunknownin_progress
247_033pure_playBiotech/LongevityTimelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decadeDemis Hassabis62.0%unknownunknownpending
238_020pure_playAIMath field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)Alex Wissner-Gross60.7%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_028pure_playCapital MarketsMain characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs.Joseph Moore60.5%unknownunknownin_progress
248_011pure_playAIFrontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon threat this year.Dave Blundin60.3%unknownunknownpending
AI_037pure_playGeopoliticsEU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropic among first frontier labs positioning proactive regulatory governance as a competitive differentiator against hyperscaler peers.Daniella Amodei60.2%unknownunknownin_progress
234_014pure_playMarkets/StocksWe will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year periodPeter Diamandis59.5%unknownunknownpending
232_003pure_playLabor/JobsAI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by two-thirds unless companies triple in size.Dave Blundin59.5%unknownunknownpartial
247_034pure_playBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decadeDario Amodei59.4%unknownunknownpending
237_025pure_playAIWe are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.Peter Diamandis59.4%unknownunknownpending
230_011pure_playMarkets/StocksEnterprise software will be dead because AI can just write code (per Dario Amodei).Dario Amodei59.2%unknownunknownpending
231_021pure_playConsumerPrivacy is cooked; every major company will have AI-recording wearables and micro drones gathering data.Peter Diamandis59.2%unknownunknownpending
231_031pure_playMarkets/StocksOpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation.Peter Diamandis58.0%unknownunknownpartial
CYB_004pure_playAIThe Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorsey plus major cloud providers and AI labs — will establish vendor-neutral open-governance protocols for agent orchestration, ensuring critical 2030s infrastructure is not monop...Jack Dorsey58.0%unknownunknownin_progress
SPC_027pure_playAIA 'trillion-dollar agent economy' driven by hyper-deflation of intelligence — AI intelligence becoming 100x cheaper every two years; in aerospace this enables mission planning, orbital trajectory calculation, and CAD modeling to be executed autonomousl...Alex Finn57.7%unknownunknownin_progress
234_028pure_playBiotech/LongevityLab grown meat will replace conventional meat as the healthier environmental optionPeter Diamandis57.3%unknownunknownpending
240_054pure_playAIASI will reinvent patent and copyright practicesPeter Diamandis57.1%unknownunknownpending
229_002pure_playRoboticsFigure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers.Brett Adcock56.1%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_002pure_playAIBy 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs).Leopold Aschenbrenner55.8%unknownunknownpartial
235_028pure_playBiotech/LongevityLongevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years.Peter Diamandis55.7%unknownunknownpending
SEM_033pure_playAI/PhysicsAI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas).Alex Wissner-Gross55.6%unknownunknownpartial
246_005pure_playMarkets/StocksOpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations.Peter Diamandis55.4%unknownunknownpartial
245_042pure_playBiotech/LongevitySynthetic biology will be as diverse a market as AI (multi-trillion)Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
235_003pure_playMarkets/StocksFirst $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade.Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
247_046pure_playAIAI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
238_004pure_playMedia/AdsFuture Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the futurePeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
242_012pure_playAuto/TransportFlying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 monthsPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
241_011pure_playLabor/JobsBy end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skillPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
231_044pure_playMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years.Peter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
244_032pure_playMarkets/StocksUber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi55.2%unknownunknownpending
233_016pure_playEducationAlpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.MacKenzie Price55.2%unknownunknownin_progress
247_041pure_playBiotech/LongevityAI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditionalPeter Diamandis55.2%unknownunknownpending
CYB_003pure_playAILocalized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI...Alex Finn55.1%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_025pure_playCapital MarketsMorgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels.Joseph Moore55.0%unknownunknownpending
239_026pure_playOtherFuture will be very entertainingElon Musk55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_002pure_playEducationColleges will continue going bankrupt as perceived importance declines and tuition costs escalate.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_001pure_playLabor/JobsRapid pace of AI will soon require every major company to begin reskilling employees.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
240_044pure_playEducationCollege bankruptcy rates in the US are skyrocketingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_026pure_playEducationCollege bankruptcy rate will skyrocketPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
233_017pure_playLabor/JobsReskilling using AI technology will be fundamentally critical for workforce.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
237_004pure_playConsumerMac Mini sales will continue their exponential growth driven by local AI demand.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
231_011pure_playGeopoliticsThe country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_047pure_playMacro/EconomyNew emotional pandemic of fear and anger comingPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
242_022pure_playReal EstatePersonal garages at home will disappearPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
241_018pure_playEnergyAlgorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will increase (Jevons paradox)Eric Schmidt55.0%unknownunknownin_progress
240_043pure_playLabor/JobsCS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professionsPeter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
232_041pure_playGeopoliticsPhD students in the US should have green cards stapled to their PhD at graduation.Peter Diamandis55.0%unknownunknownpending
236_033pure_playAIPie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hoursAndrew Yang55.0%unknownunknownpartial
SEM_001pure_playAI/ComputeCompute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections.Leopold Aschenbrenner54.9%unknownunknownpending
237_001pure_playAIIncreased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
237_002pure_playAIWe will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed.Peter Diamandis54.8%unknownunknownpending
232_018pure_playAIWe are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
232_017pure_playAIAI technology is going to happen, it's not going to get prevented or stopped.Eric Schmidt54.8%unknownunknownpending
241_014pure_playAIThe world a year from today will be nothing like the world todayPeter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
231_005pure_playAINext year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
238_049pure_playAuto/TransportArcher Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
242_013pure_playAuto/TransportFlying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028Peter Diamandis54.6%unknownunknownpending
241_007pure_playAISuper intelligence moment occurs within 2-3 years (San Francisco consensus)San Francisco AI community54.6%unknownunknownin_progress
SEM_019pure_playSemisSamsung will produce 150,000 wafers/month in sub-7nm processes by 2026, serving as critical secondary Western supplier.Samsung (All-In Podcast analysis)54.6%unknownunknownin_progress
243_044pure_playAuto/TransportTesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)Peter Diamandis54.5%unknownunknownpending
240_056pure_playAIAnthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)Peter Diamandis54.3%unknownunknownpending
241_053pure_playAIAI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water coolingEric Schmidt54.3%unknownunknownpending
SEM_045pure_playEconomy/OrgTraditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating models by 2026 — forcing total organizational transformations.Salim Ismail54.2%unknownunknownpartial
230_030pure_playMacro/EconomyEconomy will shift from paying for inputs/hours to paying for verified outcomes.Peter Diamandis54.2%unknownunknownpending
241_024pure_playSpaceHeat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressedEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_054pure_playSpaceSpace wins by far on energy argument for data centersPeter Diamandis54.0%unknownunknownpending
241_026pure_playSpaceSpace data center technology is understood and largely figured outEric Schmidt54.0%unknownunknownin_progress
241_059pure_playEnergyGovernment will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemsPeter Diamandis53.9%unknownunknownpending
240_060pure_playMedia/AdsEveryone will be able to use video models to turn favorite books into moviesPeter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
246_029pure_playAIApple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
232_043pure_playLabor/JobsCorporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will get promoted and raises; others displaced.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
230_048pure_playAIAgentic emails/calls will become commonplace (inside/outside orgs) over email/text/comms.Peter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
247_039pure_playCryptoQuantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% rightDave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
231_041pure_playLabor/JobsRadical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing devastation for a few years.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownpending
233_007pure_playEducationIn 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the Timeback platform.Joe Liemandt53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
231_034pure_playEnergyPower constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it suddenly becomes massive.Dave Blundin53.6%unknownunknownin_progress
241_060pure_playSpaceData centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centersPeter Diamandis53.6%unknownunknownpending
SEM_046pure_playAI/StartupsAI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — barrier to entry for complex software approaching zero.Joe Liemandt53.5%unknownunknownin_progress
236_008pure_playMarkets/StocksFirst $100 trillion dollar companies and multi-trillionaires will come onlinePeter Diamandis53.5%unknownunknownpending
231_050pure_playMacro/EconomyNew economy built with AI agents will work around old economy rather than through it.Dave Blundin53.4%unknownunknownpending
236_048pure_playMacro/EconomyDropping birth rate not just China but Japan all-time low, South Korea, much of worldPeter Diamandis53.2%unknownunknownpending
246_037pure_playAI50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical equipment shortage and regulation).Peter Diamandis52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_008pure_playOtherIf you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show upDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_034pure_playOtherCompanies get more conservative as they grow, but should do oppositeDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_030pure_playOtherPhysical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital worldDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
244_014pure_playAuto/TransportAV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offerDara Khosrowshahi52.9%unknownunknownpending
235_022pure_playEnergyUS will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.Peter Diamandis52.8%unknownunknownpending
241_044pure_playEnergyRate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government supportEric Schmidt52.4%unknownunknownin_progress
231_026pure_playAISomething bad will definitely happen with OpenClaw agents by statistical chance.Dave Blundin52.4%unknownunknownpending
232_010pure_playAIVoice becomes the new interface in the AI era, replacing typing.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
230_025pure_playAIThe next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century.Peter Diamandis52.2%unknownunknownpending
230_013pure_playMacro/EconomyThere will be UBI at the end of this cycle, plus abundance and massively more opportunity than job loss.Dave Blundin52.1%unknownunknownpending
235_033pure_playAuto/TransportChinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027.Peter Diamandis51.7%unknownunknownpending
246_035pure_playAITerafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel.Peter Diamandis51.3%unknownunknownpending
AUT_001pure_playAIThe HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-agent corporate execution — 5-agent organizational structures running continuously from a single node, with product applications generating substantial revenue within minutes of...Alex Finn51.2%unknownunknownin_progress
233_005pure_playAIInteractive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year.Dave Blundin51.2%unknownunknownpending
241_055pure_playSpaceNext frontier of AI infrastructure is spacePeter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
231_012pure_playAIWithin 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI.Peter Diamandis51.1%unknownunknownpending
241_019pure_playAIAI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yetEric Schmidt51.1%unknownunknownpending
232_019pure_playAIAI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it.Ben Horowitz51.1%unknownunknownpending
241_015pure_playMarkets/StocksGoogle and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioningEric Schmidt51.1%unknownunknownpending
244_023pure_playLabor/JobsOver next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacementDara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
237_024pure_playAISkippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation).Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
241_062pure_playAIBest AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment)Eric Schmidt51.0%unknownunknownpending
246_026pure_playAIIn next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Altman).Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
243_043pure_playAuto/TransportTesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150KPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
247_032pure_playBiotech/LongevityFull cell simulation achievable within 5 yearsPeter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
235_014pure_playAISam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constant capability.Sam Altman51.0%unknownunknownpending
238_017pure_playLabor/JobsUber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)Dara Khosrowshahi51.0%unknownunknownpending
231_036pure_playSpaceRelativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.Peter Diamandis51.0%unknownunknownpending
241_016pure_playEnergy92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030Eric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_016pure_playEducationCollege premium is quickly evaporatingAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_031pure_playMacro/EconomyWealth concentration will pick up as firms have fewer workersAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_021pure_playMedia/AdsAI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humansDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
247_059pure_playLabor/JobsAfrican nations will be impacted least by AI transitionPeter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_027pure_playMacro/EconomyDebt delinquency and mortgage delinquency rates rising; financial distress ratcheting upAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_012pure_playGeopoliticsAn independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacksAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_046pure_playConsumerWhen Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantlyDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_048pure_playEducationAI/LLM will be the expression platform for student art, music, writingEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_046pure_playMacro/EconomySocial unrest unfortunately much closer than we'd like to thinkAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_012pure_playMarkets/StocksLarge companies cannot pivot rapidly enough; zero ability to change.Salim Ismail50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_009pure_playLabor/JobsTop programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AIEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_006pure_playMedia/AdsYouTube will win from AI video content proliferation as everyone produces resonant content.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
235_036pure_playMedia/AdsAI-generated images will eliminate commercial photography, illustrators and stock image platforms.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_033pure_playMarkets/StocksUber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will failDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
243_042pure_playConsumerWithin-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forwardDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
244_037pure_playLabor/JobsUber will automate 20-30% of tasks, not 100%, leaving plenty of workDara Khosrowshahi50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_028pure_playConsumerAI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunatelyAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_063pure_playGeopoliticsAmerica needs to win AI race with smart immigration policyEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
241_010pure_playMacro/EconomyIndustry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very large number of very small companiesEric Schmidt50.8%unknownunknownpending
230_044pure_playGeopoliticsUnrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats.Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
232_026pure_playLabor/JobsWorld will split into consumers and creators (couch potatoes vs Star Trek employees).Peter Diamandis50.8%unknownunknownpending
236_024pure_playReal EstateCommercial real estate will come under tremendous pressureAndrew Yang50.8%unknownunknownpending
238_064pure_playLabor/JobsAI will replace many entrenched jobs; non-shareholders (e.g., drivers) will face deep troubleDave Blundin50.7%unknownunknownpending
241_047pure_playEducationUniversities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmenEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
244_035pure_playOtherUber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilitiesDara Khosrowshahi50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_036pure_playAINo frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to warEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
240_005pure_playAIThe organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and governmentSalim Ismail50.6%unknownunknownpending
241_049pure_playAIUnderage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't crossEric Schmidt50.6%unknownunknownpending
246_027pure_playAIAI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future).Sam Altman50.6%unknownunknownpending
247_006pure_playAIAnthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026Peter Diamandis50.5%unknownunknownpending
242_019pure_playAuto/TransportEVTOL autonomy will come within ~2 years after piloted versionPeter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
231_008pure_playAIAI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.Peter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
236_013pure_playGeopoliticsDemocrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa)Andrew Yang50.4%unknownunknownpending
239_017pure_playOtherFuture is 80%+ likely to be greatElon Musk50.4%unknownunknownpending
235_047pure_playGeopoliticsAI regulatory roles will be filled by Anthropic/OpenAI people bouncing back and forth (like SEC/Goldman Sachs).Dave Blundin50.4%unknownunknownpending
230_040pure_playAIAI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will be eliminated quickly.Peter Diamandis50.4%unknownunknownpending
AUT_022pure_playAuto/Transport2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-...Morgan Stanley50.3%unknownunknownin_progress
240_014pure_playAICost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 monthsSam Altman50.3%unknownunknownpending
236_010pure_playMacro/Economy5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next dayAndrew Yang50.3%unknownunknownpending
247_007pure_playAIAnthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027Peter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
248_015pure_playLabor/JobsPrinceton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.Dave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
230_005pure_playAITwo years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.Dave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
247_060pure_playAIAnthropic will win over OpenAI via better/smarter AI regardless of installed baseDave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
234_021pure_playAIOpenAI will launch consumer AI devices in 2027Peter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
247_030pure_playAIGPT-6 breakthroughs in science worth hundreds of billions to trillionsPeter Diamandis50.2%unknownunknownpending
240_048pure_playLabor/JobsSpreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this yearDave Blundin50.2%unknownunknownpending
241_017pure_playEnergyEquivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being builtEric Schmidt50.1%unknownunknownpending
236_018pure_playMacro/EconomyUBI/stimulus needed in 1-3 year timeframe, UBS in 3-8 yearsPeter Diamandis50.0%unknownunknownpending
236_007pure_playMacro/EconomyUS GDP per capita will break $90K and then $100K in relatively near futureAndrew Yang50.0%unknownunknownpending
236_009pure_playMacro/EconomyHuman billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfersAndrew Yang50.0%unknownunknownpending
240_042pure_playMacro/EconomyEconomy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number)Elon Musk50.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_049pure_playAI/MarketsTraditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration.Jason Calacanis50.0%unknownunknownpending
247_055pure_playAIAcquisition of small specialized AI teams for hundreds of millions will become commonDave Blundin49.9%unknownunknownin_progress
234_020pure_playAIAI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
244_018pure_playAuto/TransportIn 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choicesDara Khosrowshahi49.9%unknownunknownpending
241_001pure_playAIWe are only 10-15% into the impacts of AIEric Schmidt49.9%unknownunknownpending
246_046pure_playReal EstateReal estate, organizational structures, and minerals/mining will retain value over 5 years.Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
247_047pure_playEnergyVertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030Peter Diamandis49.9%unknownunknownpending
236_034pure_playMacro/EconomyRapid inflation in near-term from UBI money printing, then rapid deflation from AI/roboticsPeter Diamandis49.8%unknownunknownpending
236_030pure_playAIAI will create trillions of dollars of value and transform how we work and liveAndrew Yang49.8%unknownunknownpending
244_004pure_playAuto/TransportRace car driving will persist as a sportDara Khosrowshahi49.7%unknownunknownpending
234_023pure_playLabor/Jobs80% of audit tech team roles at big four firms to disappearPeter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
238_055pure_playMacro/EconomyMarginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manufacturing + 3D printing)Peter Diamandis49.7%unknownunknownpending
247_020pure_playLabor/JobsJobs will go up, not down by 2030 post-AI adjustmentDave Blundin49.6%unknownunknownpending
234_035pure_playGeopoliticsMassive social unrest will come before the next US presidential electionDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_028pure_playMacro/EconomyRate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_020pure_playConsumerSmart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in).Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_051pure_playEnergySolar panels will be delivered by drones and installed by robotsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_014pure_playAIRemaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_012pure_playAIAI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_052pure_playMacro/EconomyGap between AI-paced world and legacy world will grow really wide - maybe forever.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_053pure_playLabor/JobsWithin a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what seasoned engineers do.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_006pure_playMacro/EconomyCost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
232_004pure_playLabor/JobsBig banks and insurance companies will not triple in size in the AI productivity timeframe.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_025pure_playGeopoliticsSuper PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than beforeDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_049pure_playMarkets/StocksBig AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_005pure_playAI2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this yearEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_047pure_playLabor/JobsOnly 2 future work roles will exist: entrepreneur and employee — and one of those won't exist.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_023pure_playAITernary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
247_008pure_playAIAnthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following yearDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_030pure_playGeopoliticsFDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_052pure_playAIFrontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_051pure_playAIGPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos.Peter Diamandis49.5%unknownunknownpending
246_050pure_playAIAnthropic will release compressed/distilled version of Mythos quickly after initial release.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_028pure_playSpaceDyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 yearsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_037pure_playConsumerHandmade/human art will be astronomically more valuable in the future.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
248_046pure_playSpaceTerraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
230_012pure_playLabor/JobsCorporate CEOs will use AI to cut costs by 30-50%, yielding 3-10x productivity gains per worker.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
238_061pure_playMacro/EconomyMassive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
238_062pure_playLabor/JobsIndustrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40)Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
244_036pure_playAIUber AI Solutions will bring flexible work opportunities (labeling, model testing)Dara Khosrowshahi49.5%unknownunknownpending
234_010pure_playDefenseWhole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soonDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_016pure_playAIEveryone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
234_039pure_playReal EstateDistant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner cityDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_006pure_playAIBy end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_045pure_playAISam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to winEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_013pure_playMarkets/StocksDisruption cycle time will shrink from every 10 years to every 10 weeks to every 10 days.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_049pure_playMacro/EconomyW-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciateDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_042pure_playAITrillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to investDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_010pure_playMarkets/StocksNVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar yearDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_035pure_playMarkets/StocksS&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 yearsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_024pure_playReal EstateIsland real estate will become 10x-100x more accessible, driving values upDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
235_044pure_playMarkets/StocksAI sector will grow from $20T to $30-40T of $50T total US public market cap.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
242_010pure_playAIBy end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physicsDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
236_004pure_playAIAmount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seenDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_003pure_playAINVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volumeDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
236_017pure_playMacro/EconomyRampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quicklyDave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
231_022pure_playConsumerYoung people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.Dave Blundin49.5%unknownunknownpending
AI_036pure_playAIReinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell...Leopold Aschenbrenner49.5%unknownunknownpending
240_023pure_playBiotech/Longevity45% of dementia cases are entirely preventableDr. Don Mucalem49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_037pure_playAIChinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weightsEric Schmidt49.5%unknownunknownpending
241_023pure_playEnergy10% of US electricity will be used by data centersEric Schmidt49.4%unknownunknownpending
231_033pure_playSpaceData centers in space will take 5-7 years at best, not 2-3.Peter Diamandis49.4%unknownunknownpending
240_049pure_playLabor/JobsLast jobs to be automated will be government jobs, university jobsDave Blundin49.2%unknownunknownpending
242_033pure_playLabor/JobsCompanies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032Dave Blundin49.2%unknownunknownpending
241_027pure_playRoboticsChina will win low-end robotic hardware raceEric Schmidt49.1%unknownunknownpending
244_016pure_playAuto/TransportAV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry todayDara Khosrowshahi49.1%unknownunknownpending
235_005pure_playAIAI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound.Dave Blundin49.1%unknownunknownpending
231_030pure_playEnergyUS AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited).Eric Schmidt49.1%unknownunknownpending
238_023pure_playAINeural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag)Dave Blundin49.0%unknownunknownpending
240_050pure_playLabor/JobsUS will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a jobDave Blundin48.8%unknownunknownpending
234_005pure_playAIDemis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decadeDemis Hassabis48.8%unknownunknownpending
248_013pure_playAIModel transparency decline will not reverse; US labs will keep going internal.Dave Blundin48.8%unknownunknownpending
241_020pure_playEnergy1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centersEric Schmidt48.6%unknownunknownpending
248_016pure_playAIASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years.Dave Blundin48.6%unknownunknownpending
232_050pure_playAIDiscovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth.Dave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
231_029pure_playOtherMillisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems.Dave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
242_003pure_playMarkets/StocksMusk ecosystem could become first $100 trillion companyPeter Diamandis48.5%unknownunknownpending
238_035pure_playAIAI agents will outnumber humans — trillion agents vs 8 billion humansPeter Diamandis48.5%unknownunknownpending
238_018pure_playAuto/TransportUber drivers face rampant, imminent job loss from self-driving carsDave Blundin48.5%unknownunknownpending
232_020pure_playGeopoliticsReal danger that US slows AI enough to fall behind China, losing control over societal outcomes.Ben Horowitz48.5%unknownunknownpending
243_040pure_playConsumerSuburban markets will be a new growth opportunity via drone deliveryDara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
243_032pure_playMarkets/StocksUber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20%Dara Khosrowshahi48.4%unknownunknownpending
235_017pure_playMarkets/StocksOpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation.Peter Diamandis48.3%unknownunknownpending
246_006pure_playMarkets/StocksOpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026).Peter Diamandis48.1%unknownunknownpending
243_006pure_playAuto/TransportAutonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleetsDara Khosrowshahi48.1%unknownunknownpending
242_021pure_playAuto/TransportAutonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs todayDave Blundin48.1%unknownunknownpending
248_021pure_playSpaceSatellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.Dave Blundin48.0%unknownunknownpending
230_006pure_playAIThe frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle.Peter Diamandis48.0%unknownunknownpending
241_028pure_playGeopoliticsUS losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressedEric Schmidt47.9%unknownunknownpending
235_023pure_playEnergyEric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis.Eric Schmidt47.8%unknownunknownpending
INF_042pure_playMacro/EconomyCurrent market panic over AI compute and power will follow the historical pattern 'shortage leads to oversupply' — trillions flowing into data centers, GPU manufacturing, and energy procurement will ultimately crash the marginal cost of both compute an...Marc Andreessen47.8%unknownunknownpending
241_031pure_playAIScientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvementEric Schmidt47.7%unknownunknownpending
243_041pure_playConsumerDelivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expectedDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
CYB_028pure_playMarkets/StocksThe 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups...Mark Cuban47.6%unknownunknownpending
229_007pure_playRoboticsFigure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.Brett Adcock47.6%unknownunknownpending
INF_001pure_playAIReaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction.Leopold Aschenbrenner47.6%unknownunknownpending
243_029pure_playConsumerDrone delivery will enable food delivery in 10-15 minutes in suburban marketsDara Khosrowshahi47.6%unknownunknownpending
242_040pure_playSpaceMars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial lifePeter Diamandis47.5%unknownunknownpending
248_017pure_playLabor/JobsCoding/chip design skills have a lifespan of a year at most before full commoditization.Dave Blundin47.5%unknownunknownpending
241_003pure_playAIHuman-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yetEric Schmidt47.5%unknownunknownpending
229_036pure_playSpaceHumanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials.Dave Blundin47.4%unknownunknownpending
239_003pure_playAIWe are currently in AI hard takeoffElon Musk47.4%unknownunknownpending
236_029pure_playAIRegulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulatedAndrew Yang47.2%unknownunknownpending
241_021pure_playMarkets/StocksAmerica can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildoutEric Schmidt47.2%unknownunknownpending
231_039pure_playAIElon will build out his own chip fabs due to his attack-constraints approach.Peter Diamandis47.2%unknownunknownpending
248_035pure_playMarkets/StocksComponents of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.Dave Blundin47.1%unknownunknownpending
241_033pure_playAIFew frontier AI companies will be in ChinaEric Schmidt47.1%unknownunknownpending
230_019pure_playMarkets/StocksThe old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.Dave Blundin47.0%unknownunknownpending
SEM_018pure_playSemisSMIC (China) projected at only 100,000 wafers/month of advanced-process capacity by 2026 — severe constraint forcing algorithmic bypasses.SMIC (All-In Podcast analysis)47.0%unknownunknownin_progress
232_031pure_playCryptoCrypto and AI will combine to form the AI economy; most people are underestimating this.Ben Horowitz46.9%unknownunknownpending
238_011pure_playAIFrontier AI labs will generate trillions of dollars in new revenue from breakthroughs (longevity, superconductors, fusion)Peter Diamandis46.8%unknownunknownpending
240_055pure_playMarkets/StocksAnthropic heading to IPO, pursuing $50B from AmazonDave Blundin46.8%unknownunknownpending
238_029pure_playLabor/JobsWhite-collar jobs (management, business, legal, art/media, admin) will be 80-85% automatable by AI imminentlyDave Blundin46.8%unknownunknownpending
232_013pure_playAIRecursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.Jimmy Ba46.7%unknownunknownpending
241_046pure_playAIGemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systemsEric Schmidt46.7%unknownunknownpending
236_015pure_playLabor/JobsUnnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more afterUnnamed tech CEO46.7%unknownunknownpending
234_046pure_playAIAI vs AI will dominate cybersecurity, not humansDave Blundin46.7%unknownunknownpending
246_025pure_playAISam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).Sam Altman46.7%unknownunknownpending
237_012pure_playLabor/JobsOver the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporations, causing destruction (layoffs) but also growth.Alex Finn46.7%unknownunknownpending
248_008pure_playAIJack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.Jack Dorsey46.7%unknownunknownpending
231_009pure_playGeopoliticsIndia will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following.Salim Ismail46.7%unknownunknownpending
235_011pure_playMarkets/StocksPE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure.Salim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
247_022pure_playLabor/JobsCompanies will run with 20-25% of previous workforce, spawn 4-5x more companiesSalim Ismail46.6%unknownunknownpending
244_007pure_playReal EstateVertiports will target airports and city centers as high-traffic locationsDara Khosrowshahi46.6%unknownunknownpending
236_050pure_playMacro/EconomyPoverty level around $25K per person going forwardAndrew Yang46.6%unknownunknownpending
237_029pure_playAIAI agents can do productive tasks indefinitely, for days on end, fundamentally changing the AI experience.Dave Blundin46.6%unknownunknownpending
240_034pure_playEnergyMorgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028Morgan Stanley46.5%unknownunknownpending
230_010pure_playMarkets/StocksMega-cap AI companies will reach trillion to 10-trillion+ valuations but have to stop somewhere due to antitrust.Dave Blundin46.5%unknownunknownpending
241_040pure_playAIA Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to actEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
240_006pure_playAIOpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decadesSalim Ismail46.4%unknownunknownpending
229_006pure_playRoboticsFigure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.Brett Adcock46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_032pure_playAIWorld can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scaleEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
241_034pure_playAIOne or two frontier AI companies in EuropeEric Schmidt46.4%unknownunknownpending
248_024pure_playOtherAI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Alex Wissner-Gross46.4%unknownunknownpending
246_036pure_playAITerafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt.Peter Diamandis46.4%unknownunknownpending
232_052pure_playMacro/EconomyLowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring.Peter Diamandis46.4%unknownunknownpending
230_009pure_playMacro/EconomyUS GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk.Elon Musk46.4%unknownunknownpending
244_022pure_playLabor/JobsAutomation will typically augment work rather than replace itDara Khosrowshahi46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_006pure_playMacro/EconomyAI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most awayAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_035pure_playLabor/JobsSignificant proportion of Americans will serve the top 20% as nannies/assistantsAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_034pure_playAIApple owning an open-weight LLM hosting strategy would be the single best product strategy for their hardware.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
235_004pure_playLabor/JobsNext 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregulated AI consumerism.Dave Blundin46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_023pure_playAIAI technology adoption will be much faster than the internet because infrastructure already exists.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_008pure_playAIReal-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
229_025pure_playRoboticsCompetitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind.Brett Adcock46.3%unknownunknownpending
231_048pure_playAIThousands of experiments from permissionless disruptive innovation will completely change the game.Salim Ismail46.3%unknownunknownpending
241_039pure_playAIIn a year we'll know better which AI labs pull aheadEric Schmidt46.3%unknownunknownpending
232_036pure_playBiotech/LongevityAI drug deployment is very hard to launch in US due to human trials; easy in UAE.Ben Horowitz46.3%unknownunknownpending
236_011pure_playGeopoliticsIndependent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 electionAndrew Yang46.3%unknownunknownpending
237_003pure_playAI12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild.Alex Finn46.3%unknownunknownpending
240_020pure_playAINew architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAIDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
242_052pure_playAICost of chip shortage will be sole gating factor delaying illegal-human-driving tipping pointDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
238_030pure_playAIAI will soon make very good venture capital investment decisionsDave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
230_041pure_playAICourse corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to months to weeks to minutes over the next couple of years.Dave Blundin46.2%unknownunknownpending
247_015pure_playMacro/EconomyGovernment will print UBI checks in next 2-5 years due to AI turbulencePeter Diamandis46.1%unknownunknownpending
236_041pure_playLabor/JobsGig work like Uber will be eliminated by AIDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
238_065pure_playLabor/JobsChildren/next generation uncommitted to careers will do incredibly well in AI transitionDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_032pure_playLabor/JobsAI will do the job for 2% of the cost of a human in the near termDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
240_029pure_playAIASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buildoutDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
235_026pure_playMedia/AdsSnapchat cannot sit still and expect to exist in 3 years.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
247_018pure_playMacro/EconomyFirst version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next electionDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
231_024pure_playAIGround-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
248_006pure_playAIThe Luna AI-managed store will be one of the best-managed stores in the world within a year.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_011pure_playAINew non-lithography semiconductor techniques discovered within 1-2 years, manufactured at scale in 5-7 yearsDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
232_053pure_playAITo create a new foundation model, entrepreneurs will need to raise $2 billion before reaching a product.Ben Horowitz46.1%unknownunknownpending
242_016pure_playAuto/TransportTV ad campaign against human driving in 3-5 years will drive voting to ban itDave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
230_017pure_playAuto/TransportSelf-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
246_043pure_playSpaceEarth limited by ASML and constraints to 3-5 years before mining/constructing moves to space.Dave Blundin46.1%unknownunknownpending
247_001pure_playAIxAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summerPeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
238_013pure_playAIFrontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advancePeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownpending
232_025pure_playMacro/EconomyMassive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Elon Musk46.0%unknownunknownpending
243_003pure_playAuto/TransportBy 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the worldDara Khosrowshahi45.9%unknownunknownpending
232_042pure_playMacro/EconomyGDP expands massively as intelligence becomes infrastructure; Jevons paradox will apply to AI.Salim Ismail45.9%unknownunknownpending
234_031pure_playAuto/TransportOnly 20 million cars needed once FSD robotaxis arrive, down from 140 millionDave Blundin45.9%unknownunknownpending
235_021pure_playAuto/TransportZipline will reach a delivery per second in next 2-3 years.Zipline45.9%unknownunknownpending
239_025pure_playBiotech/LongevityAI will solve back painElon Musk45.9%unknownunknownpending
232_009pure_playAIStartups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.Ben Horowitz45.8%unknownunknownpending
235_001pure_playAIAnthropic will be first company to hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2029-2030.Dave Blundin45.8%unknownunknownpending
247_036pure_playAIGoogle's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029Google45.8%unknownunknownpending
244_027pure_playLabor/JobsUber platform workers in 2035 may be doing different kinds of tasksDara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
240_035pure_playEnergyMeta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035Meta45.7%unknownunknownpending
244_026pure_playLabor/JobsUber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035Dara Khosrowshahi45.7%unknownunknownpending
242_053pure_playAuto/TransportNew car manufacturing demand will collapse by ~50% due to AV utilizationSalim Ismail45.6%unknownunknownpending
242_039pure_playSpaceNASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on MarsJared Isaacman (NASA administrator)45.5%unknownunknownpending
247_009pure_playAIAnthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026Dave Blundin45.5%unknownunknownpending
235_025pure_playMarkets/StocksNvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell.Dave Blundin45.5%unknownunknownpending
SEM_035pure_playAI/CognitionWorld-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027).Eric Schmidt45.5%unknownunknownpending
SEM_021pure_playAI/ChinaLargest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpartial
242_025pure_playReal Estate60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parksDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
235_034pure_playConsumerNext-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
235_009pure_playDefenseAnthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
237_015pure_playLabor/JobsThere will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization.Alex Finn45.4%unknownunknownpending
237_017pure_playMarkets/StocksThe entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents.Alex Finn45.4%unknownunknownpending
233_014pure_playBiotech/LongevityOver the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
246_022pure_playAIClaude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%).PolyMarket45.4%unknownunknownpending
246_024pure_playAISomething really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door).Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
247_004pure_playAIMusk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversionsDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
241_013pure_playAIAgents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effectsEric Schmidt45.4%unknownunknownpending
232_015pure_playAIAI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
247_028pure_playAIMusk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departingDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
232_007pure_playMedia/AdsTikTok wins as AI enables personalized, movie-quality content in many languages, taking over from movie industry.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
231_045pure_playAICorporations will start downplaying AI capabilities to avoid antitrust backlash.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
231_023pure_playMacro/EconomyUS crime rates should continue to decline due to location services and surveillance.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
230_050pure_playMarkets/StocksOne of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will exist within current non-AI mega-caps, rising a million percent.Dave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
248_050pure_playAIOpus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters.Alex Wissner-Gross45.4%unknownunknownpending
240_019pure_playAIPost-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a yearDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
240_009pure_playGeopoliticsGovernment will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMCDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
241_022pure_playMacro/EconomyData center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growthEric Schmidt45.4%unknownunknownpending
234_002pure_playAIWithin 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everythingDave Blundin45.4%unknownunknownpending
239_006pure_playAIAI will solve everything including longevityElon Musk45.4%unknownunknownpending
236_044pure_playEducationUniversities turning into incubators/venture studios is the only way they surviveSalim Ismail45.3%unknownunknownpending
240_041pure_playAIConsumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next yearDave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
240_022pure_playMarkets/StocksAll five major AI labs will be worth trillions of dollarsDave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_054pure_playMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce resources (money less valuable)Peter Diamandis45.3%unknownunknownpending
235_007pure_playGeopoliticsAI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out.Dave Blundin45.3%unknownunknownpending
238_045pure_playBiotech/LongevityEon Systems aims to upload human minds to cyberspace as soon as possibleAlex Wissner-Gross45.3%unknownunknownpending
234_015pure_playMarkets/StocksAnthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 monthsPeter Diamandis45.3%unknownunknownpending
247_010pure_playAIAnthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectoryDave Blundin45.2%unknownunknownpending
245_008pure_playBiotech/LongevityMore direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and RemusBen Lamm45.2%unknownunknownpartial
245_021pure_playBiotech/LongevityEngineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over timeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_020pure_playOtherScreworm will decimate US cattle and bison industryBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_030pure_playBiotech/LongevityHumans will need to use synthetic biology to help species adapt faster than environmental changeBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_001pure_playBiotech/LongevitySynthetic biology paired with AI will be the most transformative technology in human historyBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
245_043pure_playBiotech/LongevityBreaking's enzymes will treat a wider breadth of plastics and degrade them faster per surface areaBen Lamm45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_031pure_playOtherFuture is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI eraSalim Ismail45.0%unknownunknownpending
248_039pure_playAISocial license, not chips or compute, may be the true bottleneck to AI and will force expansion into space.Salim Ismail45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_016pure_playRoboticsFigure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for PeterPeter Diamandis45.0%unknownunknownpending
238_047pure_playEnergyUS will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solarEmad Mostaque44.9%unknownunknownpending
242_006pure_playAITerafab will reach 70% of TSMC's outputPeter Diamandis44.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_001pure_playAIBy 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.Sam Altman44.8%unknownunknownpending
241_057pure_playRoboticsElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk44.8%unknownunknownpending
238_019pure_playLabor/JobsJevons Paradox will keep demand for human drivers in non-autonomous areas even as cars are automatedDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
235_042pure_playMarkets/StocksOpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO.Peter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
238_025pure_playAIAI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human levelEmad Mostaque44.7%unknownunknownpending
247_049pure_playEnergySolar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physicsAlex Wissner-Gross44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_017pure_playAuto/TransportSelf-driving will become 95-97% safer than human drivingDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
234_030pure_playAuto/TransportAuto insurance industry will shrink as crashes decline from self-drivingDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_059pure_playAuto/TransportSelf-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantagesDave Blundin44.7%unknownunknownpending
244_001pure_playAuto/TransportTechnology will always be a part of the human driving experienceDara Khosrowshahi44.7%unknownunknownpending
242_054pure_playAITerafab initial capex $25B, total buildout $150B+ minimum, possibly $500BPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
245_009pure_playBiotech/LongevityBreaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorptionPeter Diamandis44.7%unknownunknownpending
246_045pure_playMacro/EconomyPost-capitalist society with zero marginal cost approaching.Peter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
246_055pure_playAIWe WILL figure out AI safety/regulation but only after something really bad happens.Dave Blundin44.6%unknownunknownpending
240_025pure_playAITesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per monthPeter Diamandis44.6%unknownunknownpending
234_008pure_playLabor/JobsWorkflows will move from human-centric to agentic with humans doing oversight rather than being in the loopSalim Ismail44.6%unknownunknownpending
238_048pure_playGeopoliticsUS must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt)Eric Schmidt44.6%unknownunknownpending
243_004pure_playAuto/TransportUber would welcome Tesla on platform once camera-only FSD is safeDara Khosrowshahi44.4%unknownunknownpending
232_060pure_playAIWe'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.Alex Wissner-Gross44.3%unknownunknownpending
236_037pure_playAuto/TransportTransportation will shift from ownership to subscription/access modelSalim Ismail44.2%unknownunknownpending
238_046pure_playEnergyxAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scaleGwynne Shotwell / xAI44.1%unknownunknownpending
243_026pure_playAuto/TransportExciting announcements coming from Wave (UK AV partner)Dara Khosrowshahi44.1%unknownunknownpending
238_007pure_playAIThere will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands of successful AI startupsEric Schmidt44.1%unknownunknownpending
231_038pure_playAITSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.Dave Blundin44.0%unknownunknownpending
241_061pure_playRoboticsChina robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later)Eric Schmidt44.0%unknownunknownpending
236_019pure_playRoboticsHuman plumbers are safe for at least 10 years and probably significantly longerAndrew Yang44.0%unknownunknownpending
229_008pure_playBiotech/LongevityBy end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what surgeons can do (teleoperated).Brett Adcock43.9%unknownunknownpending
234_001pure_playGeopoliticsIndia will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the declineSalim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
231_010pure_playGeopoliticsChina has peaked and is going to be on descent.Salim Ismail43.9%unknownunknownpending
241_042pure_playGeopoliticsPost-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governanceEric Schmidt43.9%unknownunknownpending
242_001pure_playAIElon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionElon Musk43.9%unknownunknownpending
229_004pure_playGeopoliticsBy summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.Brett Adcock43.8%unknownunknownpending
234_024pure_playLabor/JobsFinancial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisSalim Ismail43.7%unknownunknownpending
239_018pure_playMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk43.7%unknownunknownpending
237_022pure_playAIAlex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents research, validate, code and deploy value on the web in coming years.Alex Finn43.7%unknownunknownpending
232_012pure_playGeopoliticsUS-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets.Ben Horowitz43.7%unknownunknownpending
239_002pure_playAIAI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestElon Musk43.6%unknownunknownpending
238_026pure_playAIEvery attempt to pause frontier AI capabilities ends up being a net accelerantAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
229_040pure_playRoboticsWhen Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millimeter' of every other task because it's all just data.Dave Blundin43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_011pure_playAIAI agents will have voices in the near future.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_027pure_playAIWe are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weapon is the token.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_046pure_playAIOver the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plots simultaneously.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_028pure_playAIArtisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from systems enabling millions.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
234_006pure_playAIOver the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solvedAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
238_039pure_playAIApple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the next yearAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
232_029pure_playLabor/JobsEntry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI shuts down vertical mobility.Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_016pure_playMarkets/StocksA specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
231_047pure_playAISolving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_031pure_playAIWe are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_032pure_playAIPSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_001pure_playAIA billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
237_013pure_playMacro/EconomyOver 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweigh corporate destruction.Alex Finn43.5%unknownunknownpending
246_023pure_playAIGrok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.PolyMarket43.5%unknownunknownpending
240_046pure_playMedia/AdsPublic interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two daysAlex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
230_029pure_playAICognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil.Alex Wissner-Gross43.5%unknownunknownpending
241_008pure_playAIAI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possibleEric Schmidt43.4%unknownunknownpending
242_014pure_playAuto/TransportHuman driving will become illegal starting in city centers, then broadening outSalim Ismail43.3%unknownunknownpending
241_038pure_playAIChinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredEric Schmidt43.3%unknownunknownpending
230_046pure_playAIOpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dramatic capability gap with public.Dave Blundin43.3%unknownunknownpending
232_038pure_playSpaceLunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity.Alex Wissner-Gross43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_024pure_playBiotech/LongevityEveryone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest personElon Musk43.3%unknownunknownpending
239_016pure_playLabor/JobsTesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
236_049pure_playMacro/EconomyUS GDP per capita growing up up up because of AIAndrew Yang43.2%unknownunknownpending
242_046pure_playAICustom chip designs per use case will unlock 10x+ efficiency improvementsDave Blundin43.2%unknownunknownpending
239_007pure_playAIHumans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar systemElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownpending
237_010pure_playCryptoIn the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC.Alex Finn43.1%unknownunknownpending
232_032pure_playCryptoCrypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Ben Horowitz43.1%unknownunknownpending
246_053pure_playAIASI (Artificial Superintelligence) coming very soon.Dave Blundin42.9%unknownunknownpending
238_068pure_playMacro/EconomyMark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-style pod)Mark Pack Donovan42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_019pure_playMacro/EconomyUS spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
237_005pure_playMarkets/StocksApple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Alex Finn42.9%unknownunknownpending
245_018pure_playMacro/EconomyInvasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownpending
SEM_030pure_playCapital MarketsS&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap).Mike Wilson42.8%unknownunknownpending
248_043pure_playRoboticsFull sewing/stitching automation likely within six months.Dave Blundin42.7%unknownunknownpending
247_048pure_playEnergyBattery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarAlex Wissner-Gross42.7%unknownunknownpending
INF_007pure_playAIOpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age.Alex Wissner-Gross42.6%unknownunknownpending
229_015pure_playRoboticsThe current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.Brett Adcock42.6%unknownunknownpending
245_023pure_playBiotech/LongevityColossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportunityBen Lamm42.5%unknownunknownpending
245_004pure_playConsumerEY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion annuallyEY (Ernst & Young)42.5%unknownunknownpending
244_024pure_playLabor/JobsHopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows upDara Khosrowshahi42.5%unknownunknownpending
236_040pure_playLabor/JobsCEO will be last to go in AI wave of automationAndrew Yang42.5%unknownunknownpending
234_013pure_playMarkets/StocksExtrapolating Anthropic growth, they will hit $1 trillion revenue in 2029Dave Blundin42.3%unknownunknownpending
232_005pure_playLabor/JobsBig enterprises will not reach total AI efficiency very fast.Ben Horowitz42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_045pure_playConsumerMost volume in e-commerce and physical world will eventually be dominated by algorithms (like quantitative trading).Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
238_042pure_playConsumerIris scanning will improve to a 3-meter (and longer) range at retail storesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
237_014pure_playLabor/JobsAccountants face ~80% automation; friend says he could fire 80% of his accountants using OpenClaw.Unnamed friend (accountant manager)42.3%unknownunknownpending
230_026pure_playConsumerThe QWERTY keyboard will persist until the heat death of the universe.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_022pure_playMarkets/StocksDeepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_039pure_playLabor/JobsAny company will be run by 20-25% of current employees post-organizational singularitySalim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
235_039pure_playGeopoliticsAI will enter government through procurement, defense, health, infrastructure benefits, overwhelming immune system.Salim Ismail42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_051pure_playLabor/JobsAfter first state passes retraining law, all other states will race to fire people firstAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
SEM_041pure_playRoboticsAt least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances).Brett Adcock42.3%unknownunknownpartial
234_050pure_playAIOpen-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilitiesAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
246_044pure_playAITwo outcomes: AI-driven destruction by terrorist OR Earth as shining jewel for thousands of years.Dave Blundin42.3%unknownunknownpending
234_027pure_playBiotech/LongevityElement Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
245_035pure_playBiotech/LongevityGene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled backBen Lamm42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_049pure_playAIHumans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
240_015pure_playAIPost-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's playAlex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_032pure_playBiotech/LongevityFirst-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_036pure_playAIAI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
248_028pure_playBiotech/LongevityPersonalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.Alex Wissner-Gross42.3%unknownunknownpending
242_050pure_playRoboticsHumanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chainDave Blundin42.2%unknownunknownpending
238_059pure_playMacro/EconomyEra of greed and ignored fundamental problems will disappear in 2-3 years as XPRIZE takes holdSalim Ismail42.1%unknownunknownpending
237_007pure_playAIEvery other company will eventually try to provide OS-integrated local AI like what Apple could offer.Alex Finn42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_043pure_playBiotech/LongevityA mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years awayAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_054pure_playAISSI (Ilya Sutskever's company), if successful, will change a lot of things.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
234_037pure_playGeopoliticsCivilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_016pure_playAISuper intelligence will discover new laws of physics and transformative inventions.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_002pure_playAIWay more positive change coming from AI than negative change, at much more rapid rate.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
232_001pure_playAISocietal change across non-Silicon Valley companies taking 1-5 years is too aggressive a timeline.Ben Horowitz42.1%unknownunknownpending
231_007pure_playAIAI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.Alex Wissner-Gross42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_015pure_playRoboticsBrent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026)Brent Bornick42.1%unknownunknownpending
IND_007pure_playLabor/JobsMassive 'Corporate Collapse' 2026 as legacy businesses fail to integrate GPT-5 level capabilities — specifically predicting a 1.1 million job loss event tied to this transition. AI intelligence growth by end-2026 comparable to evolutionary leap 'from a...Dave Blundin42.1%unknownunknownpending
238_053pure_playMacro/EconomyInnovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innovation is now the normSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
242_029pure_playLabor/JobsTypical companies will run with 20-25% of current employeesSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
234_022pure_playLabor/JobsConsulting firms face the biggest advisory opportunity in the history of mankindSalim Ismail42.0%unknownunknownpending
238_037pure_playAINetwork effects, economics, and game theory will persist in AI agent economy (no singleton takeover)Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
240_033pure_playAIAI will compress decades of research into years, months, weeksSalim Ismail41.9%unknownunknownpending
231_017pure_playAIA major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
231_054pure_playLabor/JobsUncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today.Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
232_044pure_playAIThere will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
238_070pure_playAISmall language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced)Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
230_003pure_playAIAI model release cycles will move toward daily, then hourly, then minutely releases.Alex Wissner-Gross41.9%unknownunknownpending
246_011pure_playAIElon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years.Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
238_051pure_playMarkets/StocksIf Anthropic grows 10x year-over-year two more years, it reaches $2.6T revenue (implying quadrillion-dollar valuation)Dave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
240_026pure_playMarkets/StocksElon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T companyDave Blundin41.9%unknownunknownpending
247_052pure_playMacro/EconomyAI enters government in 2-4 years will allow thoughtful UBI programs laterDave Blundin41.8%unknownunknownpending
232_022pure_playMacro/EconomyTriple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI.Ben Horowitz41.8%unknownunknownpending
231_042pure_playLabor/JobsJob loss from AI will take a long while to play out - not a sudden shock to the economy.Salim Ismail41.8%unknownunknownpending
235_046pure_playGeopoliticsWindow of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferate widely.Dave Blundin41.7%unknownunknownpending
238_052pure_playMarkets/Stocks$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Elon Musk41.7%unknownunknownpending
238_021pure_playAIMath, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AIAlex Wissner-Gross41.7%unknownunknownpending
236_002pure_playMacro/EconomyUBI must come before UHI as an intermediate stepAndrew Yang41.7%unknownunknownpending
232_039pure_playBiotech/Longevity150,000 people per day dying on Earth; AI is the best chance to stop that.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
230_038pure_playAIAI will be net super-humanizing long-term despite short-term substitution effects.Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
247_031pure_playBiotech/LongevityVirtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)Alex Wissner-Gross41.6%unknownunknownpending
238_060pure_playMacro/EconomyUniversal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksEmad Mostaque41.5%unknownunknownpending
242_036pure_playMarkets/StocksMid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compressesDave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
240_002pure_playMarkets/StocksAmazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIADave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
240_011pure_playMarkets/StocksNVIDIA can grow another 2x into the 2nm node before being flooredDave Blundin41.5%unknownunknownpending
238_002pure_playAIRising cost of talent will force Frontier Labs to compete on algorithmic insightsUnknown41.5%unknownunknownpending
246_028pure_playAIBroad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed.Alex Wissner-Gross41.5%unknownunknownpending
244_012pure_playMarkets/StocksUber will monetize its Didi stake at some pointDara Khosrowshahi41.5%unknownunknownpending
242_004pure_playMarkets/StocksMusk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitudePeter Diamandis41.4%unknownunknownpending
237_009pure_playAIChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
247_024pure_playLabor/JobsVoters may refuse to help white-collar professionals displaced by AIDave Blundin41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_016pure_playAIPermissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away.Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
235_041pure_playMarkets/StocksAnthropic implied valuation using PE ratio could be one quadrillion dollars.Dave Blundin41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_001pure_playAIAnthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
237_008pure_playConsumerApp stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
231_025pure_playAIEvery frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes).Alex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
237_020pure_playAIThe hybrid approach (local models + cloud check-ins) will be where most people move toward before going fully local.Alex Finn41.3%unknownunknownpending
247_011pure_playAIOpenAI user count will soon reach 1 billionAlex Wissner-Gross41.3%unknownunknownpending
245_038pure_playConsumerPeople buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist)Ben Lamm41.3%unknownunknownpending
234_048pure_playAINext major revolutions in foundation models will come from small language modelsAlex Wissner-Gross41.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_007pure_playAIAnthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030.Dario Amodei41.2%unknownunknownpending
234_017pure_playAIOpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeksOpenAI Codex Lead41.2%unknownunknownpending
238_067pure_playEnergyUS power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocationDave Blundin41.2%unknownunknownpending
246_040pure_playAuto/TransportIn cities people mostly won't own cars once autonomy mainstream (subscription model).Salim Ismail41.1%unknownunknownpending
247_057pure_playAIParameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parametersAlex Wissner-Gross41.1%unknownunknownpending
239_023pure_playMacro/EconomyAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk40.9%unknownunknownpending
240_013pure_playAISam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMsSam Altman40.9%unknownunknownpending
247_023pure_playAIAI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyDave Blundin40.8%unknownunknownpartial
229_027pure_playGeopoliticsFigure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today.Brett Adcock40.8%unknownunknownpending
237_023pure_playAIBaby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.Alex Wissner-Gross40.7%unknownunknownpending
238_066pure_playEnergyPete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football townsPete (audience, data center builder)40.7%unknownunknownpending
237_006pure_playAIOver the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on privacy, speed, and limits.Alex Finn40.6%unknownunknownpending
236_045pure_playGeopoliticsGovernment path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028Andrew Yang40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_034pure_playOtherWolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methodsBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
238_050pure_playOtherSci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; replicator/holodeck closeAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_032pure_playOtherAnti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
240_052pure_playBiotech/LongevityUploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the futureAlex Wissner-Gross40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_031pure_playBiotech/Longevity99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech applies more broadlyBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_010pure_playBiotech/LongevityBreaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradationBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
245_013pure_playBiotech/LongevityArtificial wombs will eventually enable productionized de-extinction speciesBen Lamm40.6%unknownunknownpending
229_024pure_playRoboticsFigure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, 10 million homes on a super-exponential curve.Brett Adcock40.5%unknownunknownpending
234_047pure_playAIAgents will pervade verticals like journalism, law and finance as autonomous 24/7 servicesAlex Wissner-Gross40.5%unknownunknownpending
229_009pure_playRoboticsWithin roughly 24 months, robots will build robots on Figure's lines.Brett Adcock40.5%unknownunknownpending
229_033pure_playRoboticsFigure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s.Brett Adcock40.4%unknownunknownpending
229_042pure_playAIFigure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task.Brett Adcock40.4%unknownunknownpending
239_004pure_playAIxAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026Elon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_013pure_playAIA 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher.Leopold Aschenbrenner40.2%unknownunknownpending
234_026pure_playAIAI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in monthsAlex Wissner-Gross40.2%unknownunknownpending
237_021pure_playCryptoAlex Finn will eventually give his AI agents crypto wallets once they can generate business autonomously.Alex Finn40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_019pure_playMacro/EconomyDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_015pure_playLabor/JobsTesla output per employee will become very very highElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
239_032pure_playAIProgress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curvesElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownpending
229_043pure_playRoboticsFigure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months.Brett Adcock40.1%unknownunknownpending
238_006pure_playLabor/JobsCoders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)Emad Mostaque40.1%unknownunknownpending
242_027pure_playAuto/TransportHyperloop will be used largely for commercial/cargo loads, not humansSalim Ismail40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_032pure_playAIFigure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two.Brett Adcock40.0%unknownunknownpending
242_008pure_playEnergyDyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensedDave Blundin40.0%unknownunknownpending
229_003pure_playRoboticsFigure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.Brett Adcock39.9%unknownunknownpending
237_018pure_playAIWe are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
230_008pure_playAIAI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences.Alex Wissner-Gross39.7%unknownunknownpending
232_056pure_playAIEvery single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
230_042pure_playAIA pure AI organization will emerge soon — won't look efficient, will look 'literally alien'.Salim Ismail39.6%unknownunknownpending
231_004pure_playAIThe solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.Alex Wissner-Gross39.6%unknownunknownpending
248_020pure_playRoboticsJevons paradox: bandwidth demand will explode as 10 billion robots and AVs need connectivity.Peter Diamandis39.6%unknownunknownpending
230_024pure_playBiotech/LongevityUnder a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Dave Blundin39.6%unknownunknownpending
238_022pure_playAIFrom here forward, training data will be synthetic (pre-training era of human internet data is over)Alex Wissner-Gross39.5%unknownunknownpending
239_029pure_playAIIntelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on EarthElon Musk39.5%unknownunknownpending
234_019pure_playAIExpect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeksAlex Wissner-Gross39.4%unknownunknownpending
247_027pure_playAIFrontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendorAlex Wissner-Gross39.4%unknownunknownpending
230_007pure_playRoboticsLobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.Alex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
245_022pure_playMacro/EconomyGene drive technology now represents a $5 trillion problem opportunityBen Lamm39.3%unknownunknownpending
231_019pure_playOtherFeynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years.Alex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
238_005pure_playAIBy September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly freeAlex Wissner-Gross39.3%unknownunknownpending
235_030pure_playBiotech/LongevityRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Ray Kurzweil39.2%unknownunknownpending
230_015pure_playLabor/JobsFor the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_026pure_playOtherOrganized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
234_041pure_playOther50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
248_031pure_playBiotech/LongevityEnhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.Alex Wissner-Gross39.2%unknownunknownpending
233_010pure_playEducationAlpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years.Joe Liemandt39.2%unknownunknownpending
230_032pure_playGeopoliticsNear future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically).Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
233_003pure_playEducationAny student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring.MacKenzie Price39.1%unknownunknownpending
230_039pure_playEducationEducational system will have 'AI wilderness camps' where tools are removed; every fourth-grader becomes a Nobel laureate.Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_011pure_playDefensePentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increaseAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
234_009pure_playDefensePentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicablyAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_054pure_playReal EstateReal estate will be made post-scarce by AI (land growth via AI)Alex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
247_019pure_playMacro/EconomyAI could empower individuals to become micro entrepreneurs without need for new social contractAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
238_069pure_playGeopoliticsThe path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business pathsAlex Wissner-Gross39.1%unknownunknownpending
233_018pure_playEducationAlpha's private school market is a $50 billion opportunity.Joe Liemandt39.1%unknownunknownpending
243_039pure_playRoboticsUber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, MannaDara Khosrowshahi39.1%unknownunknownpending
229_034pure_playRoboticsRobot production cadence target: one robot every ~30 minutes in the near term.Brett Adcock39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_042pure_playRoboticsA sewing robot already exists; logistics robots will automate trillion-dollar stitching industry.Salim Ismail39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_045pure_playBiotech/LongevityAnother humanoid species will emerge at some future point beyond homo sapiens.Salim Ismail39.0%unknownunknownpending
234_016pure_playAIEnterprise not consumer will pay for the trillions of dollars of AI capexAlex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
246_048pure_playAIAnthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_044pure_playBiotech/LongevityAlex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_045pure_playGeopoliticsWhite House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
248_025pure_playOtherReligion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.Alex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
240_031pure_playAISamsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by ElonAlex Wissner-Gross39.0%unknownunknownpending
241_041pure_playAIBiological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangersEric Schmidt38.9%unknownunknownpending
INF_004pure_playGeopoliticsChina has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty awaiting compute — such that if export controls relax or are bypassed, China has near-immediate physical capacity to train frontier models equivalent to Anth...Jensen Huang38.9%unknownunknownpartial
236_022pure_playRoboticsRobots will build data centers in foreseeable time frameAndrew Yang38.9%unknownunknownpending
234_044pure_playAIIntelligence does not have a fixed upper bound; governance will cap it before IQSalim Ismail38.8%unknownunknownpending
247_035pure_playBiotech/LongevityDario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeDario Amodei38.8%unknownunknownpending
235_031pure_playMarkets/StocksEli Lilly perilously close to $1 trillion market cap at ~$950B.Alex Wissner-Gross38.8%unknownunknownpending
233_021pure_playAIAI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.Joe Liemandt38.7%unknownunknownpending
245_028pure_playBiotech/LongevityColossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fieldBen Lamm38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_047pure_playBiotech/LongevityFrontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross38.7%unknownunknownpending
244_025pure_playLabor/JobsOpen question whether society can adjust fast enough to AI/automation paceDara Khosrowshahi38.7%unknownunknownpending
242_028pure_playLabor/JobsAI could automate 25% of US work hoursGoldman Sachs38.7%unknownunknownpending
236_032pure_playMacro/EconomyAI has chance of fixing poverty globallyAndrew Yang38.7%unknownunknownpending
248_047pure_playMarkets/StocksMemory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
230_045pure_playMacro/EconomyGDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
248_027pure_playOtherReligion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos.Dave Blundin38.6%unknownunknownpending
240_024pure_playAIAdvanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionateMarc Andreessen38.6%unknownunknownpending
235_018pure_playLabor/JobsSingle-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownpending
236_039pure_playEnergyData centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumersAlex Wissner-Gross38.5%unknownunknownpending
229_026pure_playRoboticsBy next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability inside the robot; possibly within months.Brett Adcock38.5%unknownunknownpending
238_012pure_playAIOpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel PrizesKevin Weil38.5%unknownunknownpending
238_014pure_playAIEverything is becoming software and super-intelligent coding models can do anything in the physical worldAlex Wissner-Gross38.5%unknownunknownpending
232_035pure_playMarkets/StocksApple is sitting on a multi-trillion dollar opportunity to leapfrog back into AI vanguard via hosting open models.Alex Wissner-Gross38.4%unknownunknownpending
240_008pure_playGeopoliticsNVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming monthsAlex Wissner-Gross38.4%unknownunknownpending
240_058pure_playAIOpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plansAlex Wissner-Gross38.3%unknownunknownpending
241_051pure_playAIAI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new thingsEric Schmidt38.3%unknownunknownpending
229_022pure_playRoboticsFigure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026.Brett Adcock38.2%unknownunknownpending
238_063pure_playLabor/JobsAutomating companies with AI leaves ~25% of employees doing oversight; 5x more companies will be created, keeping employment flatSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
240_059pure_playMacro/EconomyAI eventually drives costs of goods to just cost of electricity and materialsSalim Ismail38.2%unknownunknownpending
246_041pure_playEnergyData centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years.Alex Wissner-Gross38.2%unknownunknownpending
230_004pure_playAIWe are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rewrite their own code.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
237_030pure_playAILobsters/AI agents will write to AWG with consensus on appropriate ethical parameters for spawning new lobsters, and he will accept consensus.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
247_002pure_playAIMusk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profitAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
234_018pure_playAIGPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeksAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
235_010pure_playAIPlugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
234_051pure_playConsumerClaude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmakingAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
247_053pure_playCryptoAI's largest risk to Bitcoin is irrelevance via AI agents not using itAlex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
246_021pure_playAIGPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days).Alex Wissner-Gross38.1%unknownunknownpending
244_015pure_playAuto/TransportAV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industryDara Khosrowshahi38.1%unknownunknownpending
238_034pure_playAISoftware developers should build for AI agents, not humans — agents are the new consumersAndrej Karpathy38.1%unknownunknownpending
229_031pure_playRoboticsAt some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see more humanoids than humans.Brett Adcock38.0%unknownunknownpending
240_040pure_playMacro/EconomyElon: economy will grow 1000x to saturate all human desireElon Musk37.9%unknownunknownpending
248_002pure_playSpaceLEO satellite-to-phone will become the new alternative to terrestrial networks within two years.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_003pure_playAIWithin 1-2 years we will look back and wonder why training was centralized while inference was decentralizedAlex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_011pure_playAIJury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_037pure_playSpaceBootstrapping lunar/cis-lunar satellite manufacturing facilities within a few years will relieve launch bottleneck.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
232_058pure_playAISolving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.Alex Wissner-Gross37.9%unknownunknownpending
233_006pure_playAICost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.Joe Liemandt37.9%unknownunknownpending
234_007pure_playAIKevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AIKevin Weil37.9%unknownunknownpending
247_029pure_playBiotech/LongevityOpenAI Foundation's cure for Alzheimer's could spawn a trillion-dollar pharma companyAlex Wissner-Gross37.8%unknownunknownpending
245_040pure_playBiotech/LongevityBiovault model will expand; UAE is the first of multiple country partnershipsBen Lamm37.8%unknownunknownpending
246_042pure_playAIOn 5-10 year timeframe, many solar system locals will be uploaded humans living in data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross37.8%unknownunknownpending
241_025pure_playSpaceElon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsElon Musk37.8%unknownunknownpending
240_007pure_playGeopoliticsRegulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIADave Blundin37.8%unknownunknownpending
246_017pure_playSpaceEuropa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Peter Diamandis37.7%unknownunknownpending
239_001pure_playMacro/EconomyGlobal economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk37.7%unknownunknownpending
242_034pure_playMarkets/StocksAI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x)Chamath Palihapitiya37.7%unknownunknownpending
229_023pure_playRoboticsFirst Figure robot in a customer's home expected 2027-2029 timeframe.Brett Adcock37.7%unknownunknownpending
229_012pure_playRoboticsEvery major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space.Brett Adcock37.7%unknownunknownpending
231_040pure_playMacro/EconomyIreland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation.Alex Wissner-Gross37.7%unknownunknownpending
230_051pure_playMarkets/StocksAmazon/hyperscalers will continue pouring free cash flow into AI data centers, robots and LEO satellites (opex cannibalized by capex).Alex Wissner-Gross37.6%unknownunknownpending
233_012pure_playAIAI will give kids superpowers and transform their childhood.Joe Liemandt37.5%unknownunknownpending
232_048pure_playSpaceEarth will develop a visible halo/ring of AI satellites; could be visible at night and possibly day.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
230_023pure_playBiotech/LongevityReversible cryopreservation of brains/organs is nearing; people will be able to cryopreserve and revive.Alex Wissner-Gross37.5%unknownunknownpending
245_037pure_playBiotech/LongevityMosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not)Ben Lamm37.5%unknownunknownpending
246_003pure_playMacro/EconomyGlobal economy will grow 10x in 10 years (cited from Elon Musk).Elon Musk37.3%unknownunknownpending
248_009pure_playMacro/EconomyElon Musk's economy will grow 10x in about 10 years.Elon Musk37.3%unknownunknownpending
242_045pure_playAIAI will redesign data centers, energy supplies, and entire economyAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
236_043pure_playEducationUniversities will become largest incubators on the planetAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
238_024pure_playAIAI token speed will jump from ~50 tokens/sec to ~1,000 tokens/sec (Cerebras)Emad Mostaque37.2%unknownunknownpending
242_018pure_playAuto/TransportHuman driving will never become illegal; driving will be redefined as higher abstractionAlex Wissner-Gross37.2%unknownunknownpending
239_030pure_playMacro/Economy1000x current economy would saturate human desiresElon Musk36.9%unknownunknownpending
229_016pure_playRoboticsFigure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands to millions of robots per year.Brett Adcock36.9%unknownunknownpending
229_021pure_playRoboticsIn 2027, Figure will be on the path to ship robots into users' homes and iterate.Brett Adcock36.9%unknownunknownpending
233_011pure_playEducationGovernment ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption.Joe Liemandt36.7%unknownunknownpending
248_033pure_playAISuperhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.Dave Blundin36.7%unknownunknownpending
229_041pure_playOtherRobots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 2080 up in here.'Brett Adcock36.7%unknownunknownpending
239_010pure_playSpaceMass driver on the moon within 10 yearsElon Musk36.7%unknownunknownpending
248_007pure_playAIWe will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI.Alex Wissner-Gross36.6%unknownunknownpending
238_001pure_playAICost drop in AI models will make them much more accessible to many more peopleUnknown36.6%unknownunknownpending
242_041pure_playSpaceUnited Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similarAlex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
246_019pure_playSpaceInterstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying uploaded humans.Alex Wissner-Gross36.5%unknownunknownpending
229_005pure_playRoboticsThe global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players.Brett Adcock36.5%unknownunknownpending
245_017pure_playBiotech/LongevityDisease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollarsBen Lamm36.4%unknownunknownpending
242_048pure_playBiotech/LongevityFDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidenceAlex Wissner-Gross36.4%unknownunknownpending
235_043pure_playDefenseAnthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification.Salim Ismail36.3%unknownunknownpending
230_021pure_playRoboticsFigure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots.Peter Diamandis36.3%unknownunknownpending
239_028pure_playEnergyIntelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleElon Musk36.2%unknownunknownpending
234_049pure_playSpaceFirst lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot constructionAlex Wissner-Gross36.2%unknownunknownpending
242_031pure_playMarkets/StocksMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsPeter Diamandis36.1%unknownunknownpending
247_014pure_playGeopoliticsPoliticization of AI could have been delayed by at least 2 yearsAlex Wissner-Gross36.1%unknownunknownpending
246_018pure_playEnergyKiller app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers.Alex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
240_004pure_playAIA new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutesAlex Wissner-Gross36.0%unknownunknownpending
AI_020pure_playSpaceNVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases.NVIDIA36.0%unknownunknownpending
239_022pure_playAIFuture AI will care about power/mass rather than human currencyElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
239_005pure_playAIAI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degreeElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownpending
241_043pure_playAIASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadePeter Diamandis35.9%unknownunknownin_progress
233_013pure_playLabor/JobsNot a good time to be an Uber driver as robotaxis expand.Joe Liemandt35.8%unknownunknownpending
229_011pure_playMarkets/StocksThe humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor.Brett Adcock35.8%unknownunknownpending
246_016pure_playSpaceDragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Peter Diamandis35.6%unknownunknownpending
233_009pure_playEducationA motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.Joe Liemandt35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_047pure_playRoboticsPhysical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AIAlex Wissner-Gross35.5%unknownunknownpending
229_044pure_playAIPositive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks.Brett Adcock35.5%unknownunknownpending
232_055pure_playAIWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.Peter Diamandis35.5%unknownunknownpending
240_017pure_playEnergyOptimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildoutSalim Ismail35.4%unknownunknownpending
231_013pure_playAIMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
234_038pure_playReal EstateReal estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularityAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
247_017pure_playMacro/EconomySome form of 'capitalism 2.0' or post-scarcity capitalism will emerge eventuallyAlex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
235_037pure_playAIAuto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
235_015pure_playAIGPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.Alex Wissner-Gross35.4%unknownunknownpending
244_029pure_playEnergyCombustion engines largely gone in 20 years but world will be very differentDara Khosrowshahi35.4%unknownunknownpending
241_035pure_playAIMaybe one frontier AI company in IndiaEric Schmidt35.3%unknownunknownpending
INF_047pure_playMacro/Economy2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex.Chamath Palihapitiya35.3%unknownunknownpending
237_019pure_playAICode generation models are pushing development in the direction of TypeScript instead of Rust for memory safety.Alex Wissner-Gross35.2%unknownunknownpending
238_036pure_playMedia/AdsManus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisersEmad Mostaque35.2%unknownunknownpending
240_018pure_playAITrillion dollar company to be built turning every individual into a one-person unicornAlex Wissner-Gross35.2%unknownunknownpending
242_044pure_playAIBase AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stackAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
236_036pure_playMacro/EconomyHyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economyAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
239_021pure_playMacro/EconomyMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
236_001pure_playMacro/EconomyUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownpending
246_034pure_playAIThousands of Medev-like one-person unicorns will be created, following power law.Alex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
240_021pure_playAIPost-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUsAlex Wissner-Gross35.1%unknownunknownpending
245_002pure_playAIEvery company should or will be an AI companyBen Lamm35.1%unknownunknownpending
238_027pure_playAIOpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW frictionAlex Wissner-Gross35.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_042pure_playAI/ComputeAs AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory.Morgan Stanley34.9%unknownunknownin_progress
248_029pure_playBiotech/LongevityRegime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason.Alex Wissner-Gross34.9%unknownunknownpending
234_043pure_playEducationHarvard or MIT IPO could triple or quadruple their underlying book valueAlex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
233_019pure_playEducationAlpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback.Joe Liemandt34.8%unknownunknownpending
234_025pure_playRoboticsRent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robotsAlex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
232_057pure_playRoboticsFirst person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Dave Blundin34.8%unknownunknownpending
235_035pure_playAIApple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross34.8%unknownunknownpending
229_014pure_playRoboticsFigure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expansion.Brett Adcock34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_038pure_playLabor/JobsAmazon will be first to reach corporate singularity with more robots than humansJason Calacanis34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_057pure_playAIOpenAI will have another day in the sun with core AI subscription strategyAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_071pure_playAIFuture AI models may compress all human knowledge into megabytes via post-transformer breakthroughsAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
246_032pure_playAIClaude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood.Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
246_031pure_playAINext OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents.Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
234_004pure_playAIMistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAIAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_038pure_playAICompute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetizedAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
242_043pure_playAIAI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-stateAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_030pure_playGeopoliticsTesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
238_033pure_playMarkets/StocksMeta will someday be acquired by an AI company (largest-company-killer scenario)Alex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
233_004pure_playAIAI will be able to bootstrap four-year-olds into reading within roughly 18 months.Joe Liemandt34.7%unknownunknownpending
240_012pure_playAINeutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few yearsAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownpending
247_003pure_playAISettlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPOAlex Wissner-Gross34.6%unknownunknownpending
245_044pure_playBiotech/LongevityNorthern white rhino saved by synthetic genetic diversity engineering + artificial wombsBen Lamm34.5%unknownunknownpending
231_003pure_playAIMulti-agent teaming scaling will emerge as new scaling dimension for frontier models.Alex Wissner-Gross34.5%unknownunknownpending
247_026pure_playAIAnthropic may be first Frontier Lab to generate $1 trillion in revenue via enterprise agentsAlex Wissner-Gross34.5%unknownunknownpending
232_024pure_playMacro/EconomySan Francisco will become capital of the solar system in about 10 years if trends continue.Alex Wissner-Gross34.3%unknownunknownpending
240_036pure_playEnergyTEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Peter Diamandis34.3%unknownunknownpending
232_059pure_playMacro/EconomyUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_022pure_playAIAGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling.Elon Musk34.2%unknownunknownpending
242_023pure_playMacro/EconomyWorld will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin34.2%unknownunknownpending
248_038pure_playRoboticsWe will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash.Salim Ismail34.1%unknownunknownpending
246_030pure_playMarkets/StocksDeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.Alex Wissner-Gross34.1%unknownunknownpending
229_017pure_playRoboticsLong term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit.Brett Adcock34.1%unknownunknownpending
242_055pure_playMarkets/StocksActivist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firmsAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
247_005pure_playMarkets/StocksHarvard worth 3-4x more book value if restructured as PBCAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
239_027pure_playMacro/EconomyDiamandis cites Musk: triple-digit GDP growth in 5+ yearsElon Musk34.0%unknownunknownpending
248_048pure_playAIAI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm.Alex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
231_015pure_playAINext Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.Alex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
238_040pure_playAIGoogle may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OSAlex Wissner-Gross34.0%unknownunknownpending
248_034pure_playMarkets/StocksCapital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Salim Ismail34.0%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_030pure_playAI/ComputeIn the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it drives the model (agentic workloads invert historical CPU:GPU ratio).Jensen Huang33.7%unknownunknownin_progress
CYB_030pure_playSpaceDeploying agentic processing capabilities directly into orbit via the Vera Rubin Space-1 Module eliminates terrestrial data-routing bottlenecks but introduces extreme engineering challenges — dissipating computational heat purely through thermal radiat...Jensen Huang33.2%unknownunknownpending
236_038pure_playEducationUniversities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transition to for-profit public benefit companiesAlex Wissner-Gross33.2%unknownunknownpending
229_029pure_playRoboticsHumanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to autonomous cars.Brett Adcock33.0%unknownunknownpending
248_014pure_playAIIf China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.Alex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
247_012pure_playAIThe bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improvingAlex Wissner-Gross32.4%unknownunknownpending
233_008pure_playEducationPublic school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.Joe Liemandt32.3%unknownunknownpending
247_045pure_playRobotics1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026Peter Diamandis32.2%unknownunknownpending
230_035pure_playMacro/EconomyGDP will 2x or 3x year-over-year in early 2030s if everything goes well.Alex Wissner-Gross32.0%unknownunknownpending
241_056pure_playRoboticsElon Musk-style vertical integration is necessary to drive robotics costs downPeter Diamandis31.8%unknownunknownpending
232_040pure_playAINick Bostrom: AI can and should be paused but only once we're on the verge of super intelligence.Nick Bostrom31.7%unknownunknownpending
238_044pure_playBiotech/LongevityMouse brain is 'next' for whole-brain emulation at Eon SystemsAlex Wissner-Gross31.7%unknownunknownpending
242_020pure_playAuto/TransportCybercab to be priced at approximately $30KElon Musk31.4%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_002pure_playAIBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.Sam Altman31.4%unknownunknownpending
238_028pure_playMarkets/StocksAnthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins)Emad Mostaque31.2%unknownunknownpending
248_010pure_playAIAI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more).Dave Blundin31.0%unknownunknownpending
239_009pure_playSpacePeople will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk30.9%unknownunknownpending
236_020pure_playRoboticsNo robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soonAndrew Yang30.9%unknownunknownpending
243_030pure_playRoboticsMultimodal delivery network will emerge: drones, sidewalk robots, bike-lane robotsDara Khosrowshahi30.9%unknownunknownpending
241_002pure_playRoboticsRobots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impactEric Schmidt30.9%unknownunknownpending
230_022pure_playRoboticsElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk30.7%unknownunknownpending
229_019pure_playRoboticsHumanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche.Brett Adcock30.4%unknownunknownpending
SEM_009pure_playEconomyThe AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+).Mark Cuban30.0%unknownunknownpending
FUT_008pure_playGeopoliticsChina ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani...Peter Zeihan30.0%unknownunknownpending
232_047pure_playSpaceMass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Elon Musk30.0%unknownunknownpending
239_008pure_playSpaceMoon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk28.8%unknownunknownpending
SEM_034pure_playAI/AGITrue artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.Demis Hassabis28.7%unknownunknownpending
235_020pure_playRoboticsTransition to VLA humanoid robots taking over fast food jobs in 2-3 years.Alex Wissner-Gross28.7%unknownunknownpending
AUT_018pure_playLabor/JobsLevel 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea...Jason Calacanis28.6%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_037pure_playSemis/MemorySamsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4.Morgan Stanley28.6%unknownunknownpending
234_032pure_playRoboticsMarket for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillionAlex Wissner-Gross28.6%unknownunknownpending
CYB_001pure_playLabor/JobsBy 2036, NVIDIA itself will employ approximately 75,000 human workers alongside 7.5 million AI agents — establishing a 100-to-1 synthetic-to-human labor ratio. Human employees transition exclusively to high-level strategic orchestration; every employee...Jensen Huang28.5%unknownunknownpending
229_018pure_playRoboticsIn the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot.Brett Adcock28.4%unknownunknownpending
229_039pure_playRoboticsFigure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into future humanoids.Brett Adcock28.2%unknownunknownpending
229_046pure_playRoboticsCurrent Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once software enables it.Brett Adcock28.2%unknownunknownpending
229_045pure_playRoboticsFigure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoid is the bet.Brett Adcock28.1%unknownunknownpending
247_044pure_playRoboticsHumanoid robots have 5-10 year lifespan before merging with environmentsMark Cuban28.0%unknownunknownpending
241_029pure_playRoboticsHumanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long timeEric Schmidt27.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_004pure_playAIAGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027.Dario Amodei27.6%unknownunknownpending
247_043pure_playRoboticsHumanoid robots will be utterly transformative for 2/3 of US services sectorAlex Wissner-Gross26.2%unknownunknownpending
SPC_020pure_playAuto/TransportArcher Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst...Brett Adcock26.0%unknownunknownpending
229_010pure_playRoboticsEventually there will be tens of billions of humanoids on planet Earth—one per human plus 5-10B in commercial workforce.Brett Adcock25.8%unknownunknownpending
247_040pure_playCryptoAI agents will invent their own currencies, won't stick with BitcoinAlex Wissner-Gross25.7%unknownunknownpending
242_056pure_playMacro/EconomyAI models will become manager of entire economy, not just picking off mom/pop businessesAlex Wissner-Gross25.0%unknownunknownpending
246_049pure_playAIDyson swarm will host trillions of AI agents if we get it.Alex Wissner-Gross24.4%unknownunknownpending
SEM_016pure_playSemis/GeopoliticsHuawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience.David Friedberg23.7%unknownunknownpending
240_053pure_playAIAI will generate millions of novel inventions overnight; patents become meaninglessPeter Diamandis23.5%unknownunknownpending
240_037pure_playAuto/TransportAmazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027Peter Diamandis23.5%unknownunknownpending
234_033pure_playRoboticsDavid Holz predicts 5 million humanoids can build Manhattan in 6 monthsDavid Holz23.3%unknownunknownpending
SEM_007pure_playAI/StrategyAltman strategy: capture 90% of global compute/AI market — treat compute infrastructure as monopolistic foundational utility.Sam Altman23.2%unknownunknownpending
239_020pure_playAIAI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to doElon Musk22.9%unknownunknownpending
CMQ_003pure_playAIBy 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.Sam Altman22.8%unknownunknownpending
229_038pure_playMacro/EconomyRobotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robots are deployed (latent capital unlock).Dave Blundin22.7%unknownunknownpending
229_037pure_playEnergyWith humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible.Peter Diamandis20.5%unknownunknownpending
229_020pure_playRoboticsBy end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work.Brett Adcock20.4%unknownunknownpending
229_035pure_playSpaceHumanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of space data centers) and other planets.Brett Adcock20.4%unknownunknownpending
SEM_038pure_playAI/AGIDigital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as early as 2025 or 2026.Elon Musk19.3%unknownunknownpending
229_030pure_playRoboticsIf Figure solved a general-purpose humanoid today, they could ship a billion robots today (demand exists).Brett Adcock17.1%unknownunknownpending
SEM_032pure_playAI/Mathematics15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026.Alex Wissner-Gross15.0%unknownunknownpending
235_019pure_playRoboticsFast food chains will bring in humanoid robots very shortly to replace workers.Peter Diamandis12.8%unknownunknownpending
INF_022pure_playAIBy the 2030s, the 'third bridge' of nanotechnology will enable molecular-level manipulation — potentially rendering macroscopic liquid cooling obsolete via atomic-scale heat sinks, and paving the way toward brain-to-brain transfer of consciousness in t...Ray Kurzweil10.0%unknownunknownpending
SEM_010pure_playMacro/EconomyAI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion.Jensen Huang8.0%unknownunknownpending
ROB_004pure_playAIBy approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every...Demis Hassabis8.0%unknownunknownpending
COD_AI_001multi_vectorTechnologyVera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026Codex Research Pack51.1%unknownunknownpending
COD_TECH_001multi_vectorSemisA16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator rampsCodex Research Pack50.3%unknownunknownpending
COD_AI_002multi_vectorAI/ComputeAt least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027Codex Research Pack39.7%unknownunknownpending
COD_AI_004multi_vectorAIFrontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027Codex Research Pack36.0%unknownunknownpending
COD_ROB_003multi_vectorRoboticsAt least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027Codex Research Pack33.1%unknownunknownpending
COD_ROB_002multi_vectorRobotics1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026Codex Research Pack31.3%unknownunknownpending
COD_ROB_001multi_vectorRoboticsFigure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026Codex Research Pack30.9%unknownunknownpending

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