COD_AI_001predictionTechnologyNVIDIA-roadmap

Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

78.0%

Current probability

51.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-07-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 51.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 5 pending

2026-01-06hitNVIDIA announces Vera Rubin platform at CES 2026 in full production
How: Jensen Huang announces Vera Rubin in full production during CES 2026 keynote
Source: Yahoo Finance / DCD / NVIDIA Newsroom Jan 2026conf 99%
Notes: HIT — Vera Rubin announced and in full production Q1 2026, ahead of original H2 2026 mass production guidance.
2026-04-30hitFirst cloud provider takes Vera Rubin orders / pre-orders
How: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, OCI, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, or Nscale publicly confirms Vera Rubin instance availability or pre-order
Source: Nebius newsroom — Vera Rubin NVL72 H2 2026 in US/Europeconf 95%
Notes: HIT — Nebius committed to Vera Rubin NVL72 H2 2026 in US/Europe.
2026-08-03pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-09-06pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingVera Rubin NVL72 commercially available at major hyperscalers
How: Two or more of (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, OCI) launch Vera Rubin-based EC2/VM instances generally available
Source: NVIDIA Newsroom — Rubin platform AI supercomputer launchconf 85%
2026-10-09pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-09-01 → 2026-12-31pendingRubin demonstrates 5x inference performance vs Blackwell publicly
How: MLPerf or peer-reviewed benchmark confirms NVIDIA's 5x inference / 10x cost-per-token claim vs Blackwell
Source: Tom's Hardware / MLPerf submission trackingconf 55%
2026-11-12pendingVera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026
2026-08-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMicrosoft Fairwater AI superfactory deploys Vera Rubin NVL72 racks
How: Microsoft publicly confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 racks in operation at Fairwater data center
Source: NVIDIA Newsroom + Microsoft press releasesconf 75%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z51.1%-2.0pp

Network propagation: 53.2% → 51.1%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z53.2%-4.1pp

Network propagation: 57.2% → 53.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z57.2%-7.8pp

Network propagation: 65.0% → 57.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z65.0%-13.0pp

Network propagation: 78.0% → 65.0%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	60.0%	0.780	0.050	-0.023

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

6 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (6)

AVGO DELL NVDA ORCL SMCI TSM

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027	Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-16
0.700	codex_research_pack	NVIDIA - Rubin Platform, Open Models, Autonomous Driving at CES	—	mentions	pending	2026-01-06
0.621	github_release	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.0.0	—	mentions	pending	2025-10-16
0.602	manifold	Any new Veo model released during Google I/O	12%	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.597	manifold	Will Russian ISPs require additional payments from end-users for cross-border traffic by the end of 2026	17%	mentions	pending	2026-05-18
0.597	github_release	facebookresearch/spdl v0.1.2	—	mentions	pending	2025-08-21
0.577	github_release	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.2	—	mentions	pending	2024-06-14
0.572	github_release	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.7	—	mentions	pending	2025-01-31
0.571	github_release	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.8	—	mentions	pending	2025-04-09
0.568	edgar_8k	Vistra Corp. (VST) (CIK 0001692819)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA announces Vera Rubin platform at CES 2026 in full production",
      "notes": "HIT — Vera Rubin announced and in full production Q1 2026, ahead of original H2 2026 mass production guidance.",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance / DCD / NVIDIA Newsroom Jan 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-launches-vera-rubin-its-next-major-ai-platform-at-ces-2026-230045205.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-06",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-06",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Jensen Huang announces Vera Rubin in full production during CES 2026 keynote"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First cloud provider takes Vera Rubin orders / pre-orders",
      "notes": "HIT — Nebius committed to Vera Rubin NVL72 H2 2026 in US/Europe.",
      "source": "Nebius newsroom — Vera Rubin NVL72 H2 2026 in US/Europe",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-to-offer-nvidia-vera-rubin-nvl-72-in-us-and-europe-from-h2-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, OCI, CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, or Nscale publicly confirms Vera Rubin instance availability or pre-order"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vera Rubin NVL72 commercially available at major hyperscalers",
      "source": "NVIDIA Newsroom — Rubin platform AI supercomputer launch",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Two or more of (AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, OCI) launch Vera Rubin-based EC2/VM instances generally available"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Rubin demonstrates 5x inference performance vs Blackwell publicly",
      "source": "Tom's Hardware / MLPerf submission tracking",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/nvidia-launches-vera-rubin-nvl72-ai-supercomputer-at-ces-promises-up-to-5x-greater-inference-performance-and-10x-lower-cost-per-token-than-blackwell-coming-2h-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurem
... (truncated)