S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027scenariocompute_scale
Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027
Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
60.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
0 / 22
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Stargate Phase 1 (Abilene Texas data center) operational by Q2 2027. Announced Jan 2025 with $100B initial / $500B/4y total.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
Not linked
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 60%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reach — Codex Research Pack | 39.7% | 0.520 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud — Codex Research Pack | 51.1% | 0.780 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (22)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_AI_001 | Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 | Technology | — |
| prereq | COD_AI_002 | At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_057 | Democratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can now build world-changing applications via API access to frontier models. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_017 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw. | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | AI_018 | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_010 | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | INF_048 | Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. | Energy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_014 | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| correlate | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_012 | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| correlate | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| correlate | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_006 | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given over to data centers as AI compute demand scales — hyperscaler DC footprint transitions from discrete campuses to regional-scale compute territories. | AI | — |
| correlate | INF_014 | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_007 | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. | AI | — |
| correlate | 246_041 | Data centers will drive local electricity costs toward zero within ~5 years. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_020 | In-orbit data-center market will reach approximately $1.77 billion by 2029 and grow to approximately $39.1 billion by 2035 — a 67.4% CAGR driven by Starship economics, radiation-hardened TPU hardware, and mega-constellation filings. | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | edgar_8k | SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.588 | edgar_8k | SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SEDG) (CIK 0001419612) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE) (CIK 0001805077) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.569 | manifold | What will the national average gas price be on July 1st? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.562 | edgar_8k | IPG PHOTONICS CORP (IPGP) (CIK 0001111928) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.556 | edgar_8k | PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC (PEG) (CIK 0000788784) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.555 | edgar_8k | SkyWater Technology, Inc (SKYT) (CIK 0001819974) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.540 | edgar_8k | WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. (WEC) (CIK 0000783325) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"phase": "compute_1gw",
"fork_key": "compute",
"dimension": "compute_scale",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Compute scale",
"family_order": 1
}