Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction.

Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. | Hyperscaler quarterly capex disclosures

Key catalyst: Hyperscaler quarterly capex disclosures

Watch events: Single-site >5GW power contracts; hyperscaler quarterly capex disclosures.

xAI Colossus 200K→1M GPUs; Stargate $500B over 4 years; Meta/MSFT capex each >$75B 2025 — cumulative physical compute 2x-3x annually.

Beneficiaries (21)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "~0.5 OOMs/yr",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Researcher",
  "caveats": "Gated by power contracts and grid capacity.",
  "context": "First of three OOM vectors: raw FLOPs/watt expansion plus GPU count growth, equating to ~3x physical compute per year.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "conv_cues": "quantitative rate; historical extrapolation",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2024,
  "timeframe": "2024-2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2024-09-27",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2025-06-25",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex consensus crosses $600B (above 0.5 OOM/yr trajectory)",
      "notes": "HIT — January 2026 consensus reached $600B-$630B; 36% YoY growth above the implied 3x physical compute trajectory.",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Top-5 hyperscaler aggregate 2026 capex guidance crosses $600B per analyst consensus"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex revised upward to $720-750B",
      "source": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/magnificent-7-earnings-rush-reveals-ai-spending-surge-with-hyperscaler-capex-set-to-reach-725-billion-in-2026-224901707.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/magnificent-7-earnings-rush-reveals-ai-spending-surge-with-hyperscaler-capex-set-to-reach-725-billion-in-2026-224901707.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Q1 2026 earnings cycle prompts top-5 hyperscaler capex revision to $720B+"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First 1 GW single-cluster training facility operational",
      "source": "https://pro.stockalarm.io/blog/situational-awareness-two-years-later — Aschenbrenner '1 GW per cluster by 2026' tracking as HIT",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://pro.stockalarm.io/blog/situational-awareness-two-years-later",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Hyperscaler announces first 1 GW power-rated training clust
... (truncated)