S_GRID_50GW_2027scenarioenergy_grid_expansion
50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027
Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
40.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 45
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Stargate alone targets 10GW. Combined with Microsoft, Amazon, Meta investments hits 50GW by end of 2027.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Linked
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 40%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_017 Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data — Salim Ismail | 35.4% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.144 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (45)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 240_017 | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massive energy buildout | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| correlate | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_049 | Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; energy — not silicon supply — has become the absolute primary bottleneck for AI scalability, and these concentrated power needs cannot be reliably connected to existing public ... | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | INF_017 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_034 | Equinix has 56 planned data-center projects including 13 xScale developments designed for high-density power-hungry AI workloads — slated to be fully operational by 2026. | Real Estate | — |
| correlate | AI_018 | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion through 2028 — early adopters of AI infrastructure are already seeing cash-flow-margin expansions at roughly twice the global average. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_044 | US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next decade — the largest sustained-growth period since mid-20th-century industrialization — driven by AI data centers, electrification of transport, and reindustrialization. | Energy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_017 | US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to support hundreds of millions of frontier-AI GPUs. | Energy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_020 | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow through the global economy by 2028; >80% of that spending is still ahead of the market as of early 2026. | Macro/Economy | — |
| correlate | INF_010 | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_048 | Global data-center energy demand will reach approximately 945 Terawatt-hours by 2030 — a roughly 175% increase from 2023 levels — requiring complete grid overhauls in major markets. | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_001 | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'another zero every six months' on boardroom projections. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | CMQ_014 | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, driven by exponentially larger data-center construction. | AI/Compute | — |
| correlate | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| correlate | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 246_036 | Terafab will deliver 1 terawatt/year AI compute, 50x current global output of 20 gigawatt. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_001 | Reaching AGI by 2027 will require deployment of hundreds of millions of AI GPUs — forcing total mobilization of US industrial capacity for semiconductor fab and data-center shell construction. | AI | — |
| correlate | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| correlate | 231_030 | US AI industry needs 80 gigawatts of power in the next 3-5 years (Eric Schmidt cited). | Energy | — |
| correlate | 235_023 | Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_020 | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_023 | 10% of US electricity will be used by data centers | Energy | — |
| correlate | 248_035 | Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | INF_012 | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually through 2028 — comparable to Canada's total annual power demand, and representing nearly 20% of projected global power growth through 2030. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_021 | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Markets/Stocks | — |
| correlate | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| correlate | 240_035 | Meta secured 6.6 GW of clean nuclear power for 2035 | Energy | — |
| correlate | FUT_018 | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... | Energy | — |
| correlate | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| correlate | 232_045 | Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_014 | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| correlate | CMQ_022 | AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. | AI | — |
| correlate | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| correlate | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_007 | OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. | AI | — |
| correlate | 240_058 | OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | AI | — |
| correlate | 236_039 | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Energy | — |
| correlate | AUT_009 | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nation of geniuses' consisting of millions of highly specialized autonomous agents operating orders of magnitude faster than human counterparts; entire software development lifecy... | AI | — |
| correlate | FUT_019 | Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| correlate | INF_056 | Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_057 | Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors. | Energy | — |
Linked documents (10)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "grid",
"dimension": "energy_grid_expansion",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Energy / grid",
"family_order": 1
}