← Cockpit
241_059predictionEnergyAI-timing

Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
53.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 9 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2024-09-20hitMicrosoft 20-year nuclear deal for Three Mile Island restart (835MW)
    How: Microsoft announces $16B 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, supplying 835MW for AI
    Source: Introl — Nuclear power for AI: inside the data center energy dealsconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Big Tech signed 10GW+ new US nuclear in past year. TMI restart targets 2028.
  2. 2026-01-15hitUS utility plans $1.4T capex for AI data centers (27% surge)
    How: US utility regulators report aggregate utility capex plans of ~$1.4T for AI-related grid expansion through 2030
    Source: Tech-Insider — US Utilities Plan $1.4T for AI Data Centersconf 85%
    Notes: HIT — 27% capex surge tracked by utility regulators; Belfer Center confirms watershed moment.
  3. 2026-01-31hitHyperscaler 2026 capex hits $660-690B aggregate
    How: Combined 2026 capex guidance of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle reaches $660B+ — ~75% YoY growth
    Source: Introl — Hyperscaler CapEx Hits $600B in 2026conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B, Microsoft $120B+, Oracle $50B ≈ $660-690B.
  4. 2025-12-31hitGoldman Sachs projects $1.15T hyperscaler capex 2025-2027
    How: Goldman Sachs research projects total hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 of $1.15T+
    Source: Goldman Sachs / Empirix Partnersconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Total 3-year capex more than 2x the 2022-2024 baseline.
  5. 2025-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFederal AI infrastructure subsidy/loan program announced
    How: US federal program (DOE, Treasury, DOD) announces direct subsidies, loan guarantees, or grants for AI infrastructure totaling >$50B
    Source: DOE Announcements; Inflation Reduction Act amendmentsconf 60%
    Notes: Cascade — Beyond private capital; literal 'unleashing of money' in Diamandis claim. CHIPS Act precedent.
  6. 2025-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst grid stress event traced to AI data centers
    How: Major regional grid operator (PJM, ERCOT, MISO) attributes a specific demand-related stress event or rolling brownout to AI data center load growth
    Source: FERC; major grid operator press releasesconf 55%
    Notes: Cascade — IEA noted 2025 surge with 'tightening bottlenecks driving a scramble for solutions.'
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z53.9%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 55.3% → 53.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z55.3%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 57.5% → 55.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z57.5%-3.4pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 57.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.052
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.051
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.6500.050-0.049
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.043
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.032

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.029
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.028
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050+0.027
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.025
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.012

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_GRID_50GW_DELAYED50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031energy_grid_expansion
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2031-03-31[Energy/Regulation 2031-03] ntil chip fabs come online and it sudde [241_059] Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problemspending

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the crazy investors are solving the problem",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Microsoft 20-year nuclear deal for Three Mile Island restart (835MW)",
      "notes": "HIT — Big Tech signed 10GW+ new US nuclear in past year. TMI restart targets 2028.",
      "source": "Introl — Nuclear power for AI: inside the data center energy deals",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/nuclear-power-ai-data-centers-microsoft-google-amazon-2025",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-20",
      "observed_date": "2024-09-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Microsoft announces $16B 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, supplying 835MW for AI"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US utility plans $1.4T capex for AI data centers (27% surge)",
      "notes": "HIT — 27% capex surge tracked by utility regulators; Belfer Center confirms watershed moment.",
      "source": "Tech-Insider — US Utilities Plan $1.4T for AI Data Centers",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://tech-insider.org/us-utility-1-4-trillion-ai-data-center-energy-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2025-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "US utility regulators report aggregate utility capex plans of ~$1.4T for AI-related grid expansion through 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $660-690B aggregate",
      "notes": "HIT — Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B, Microsoft $120B+, Oracle $50B ≈ $660-690B.",
      "source": "Introl — Hyperscaler CapEx Hits $600B in 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-03-31",
        "from": "2025-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Combined 2026 capex guidance of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle reaches $660B+ — ~75% YoY growth"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs projects $1.15T hyperscaler capex 2025-2027",
      "notes": "HIT — Total 3-year capex more than 2x the 2022-2024 baseline.",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs / Empirix Partners",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://empirixpartners.com/the-trillion-dollar-horizon/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs research projects total hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 of $1.15T+"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Federal AI infrastructure subsidy/loan program announced",
      "notes": "Cascade — Beyond private capital; literal 'unleashing of money' in Diamandis claim. CHIPS Act precedent.",
      "source": "DOE Announcements; Inflation Reduction Act amendments",
      "status": "pending",
     
... (truncated)