Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening
Verbatim quote
the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2024-09-20hitMicrosoft 20-year nuclear deal for Three Mile Island restart (835MW)How: Microsoft announces $16B 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, supplying 835MW for AISource: Introl — Nuclear power for AI: inside the data center energy dealsconf 99%Notes: HIT — Big Tech signed 10GW+ new US nuclear in past year. TMI restart targets 2028.
- 2026-01-15hitUS utility plans $1.4T capex for AI data centers (27% surge)How: US utility regulators report aggregate utility capex plans of ~$1.4T for AI-related grid expansion through 2030Source: Tech-Insider — US Utilities Plan $1.4T for AI Data Centersconf 85%Notes: HIT — 27% capex surge tracked by utility regulators; Belfer Center confirms watershed moment.
- 2026-01-31hitHyperscaler 2026 capex hits $660-690B aggregateHow: Combined 2026 capex guidance of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle reaches $660B+ — ~75% YoY growthSource: Introl — Hyperscaler CapEx Hits $600B in 2026conf 95%Notes: HIT — Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B, Microsoft $120B+, Oracle $50B ≈ $660-690B.
- 2025-12-31hitGoldman Sachs projects $1.15T hyperscaler capex 2025-2027How: Goldman Sachs research projects total hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 of $1.15T+Source: Goldman Sachs / Empirix Partnersconf 95%Notes: HIT — Total 3-year capex more than 2x the 2022-2024 baseline.
- 2025-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFederal AI infrastructure subsidy/loan program announcedHow: US federal program (DOE, Treasury, DOD) announces direct subsidies, loan guarantees, or grants for AI infrastructure totaling >$50BSource: DOE Announcements; Inflation Reduction Act amendmentsconf 60%Notes: Cascade — Beyond private capital; literal 'unleashing of money' in Diamandis claim. CHIPS Act precedent.
- 2025-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst grid stress event traced to AI data centersHow: Major regional grid operator (PJM, ERCOT, MISO) attributes a specific demand-related stress event or rolling brownout to AI data center load growthSource: FERC; major grid operator press releasesconf 55%Notes: Cascade — IEA noted 2025 surge with 'tightening bottlenecks driving a scramble for solutions.'
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.051 |
| prereq | 235_038 David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trial — Peter Diamandis | 74.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.029 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.028 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.027 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.025 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.012 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | 235_038 | David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED | 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2031-03-31 | [Energy/Regulation 2031-03] ntil chip fabs come online and it sudde [241_059] Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | pending |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the crazy investors are solving the problem",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "the crazy investors are solving the problem. You They're unleashing of the money is happening",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "ongoing",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Microsoft 20-year nuclear deal for Three Mile Island restart (835MW)",
"notes": "HIT — Big Tech signed 10GW+ new US nuclear in past year. TMI restart targets 2028.",
"source": "Introl — Nuclear power for AI: inside the data center energy deals",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/nuclear-power-ai-data-centers-microsoft-google-amazon-2025",
"expected_date": "2025-09-20",
"observed_date": "2024-09-20",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Microsoft announces $16B 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1, supplying 835MW for AI"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "US utility plans $1.4T capex for AI data centers (27% surge)",
"notes": "HIT — 27% capex surge tracked by utility regulators; Belfer Center confirms watershed moment.",
"source": "Tech-Insider — US Utilities Plan $1.4T for AI Data Centers",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://tech-insider.org/us-utility-1-4-trillion-ai-data-center-energy-2026/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-15",
"observed_date": "2026-01-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-30",
"from": "2025-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "US utility regulators report aggregate utility capex plans of ~$1.4T for AI-related grid expansion through 2030"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Hyperscaler 2026 capex hits $660-690B aggregate",
"notes": "HIT — Amazon $200B, Alphabet $175-185B, Meta $115-135B, Microsoft $120B+, Oracle $50B ≈ $660-690B.",
"source": "Introl — Hyperscaler CapEx Hits $600B in 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-600b-2026-ai-infrastructure-debt-january-2026",
"expected_date": "2025-12-30",
"observed_date": "2026-01-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-03-31",
"from": "2025-10-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Combined 2026 capex guidance of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle reaches $660B+ — ~75% YoY growth"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Goldman Sachs projects $1.15T hyperscaler capex 2025-2027",
"notes": "HIT — Total 3-year capex more than 2x the 2022-2024 baseline.",
"source": "Goldman Sachs / Empirix Partners",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://empirixpartners.com/the-trillion-dollar-horizon/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Goldman Sachs research projects total hyperscaler capex 2025-2027 of $1.15T+"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Federal AI infrastructure subsidy/loan program announced",
"notes": "Cascade — Beyond private capital; literal 'unleashing of money' in Diamandis claim. CHIPS Act precedent.",
"source": "DOE Announcements; Inflation Reduction Act amendments",
"status": "pending",
... (truncated)