S_GRID_50GW_2029scenarioenergy_grid_expansion
50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029
Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
50.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
—
Signal quality
—
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31
Edges in / out
0 / 15
Tickers exposed
0
Prediction text
Most likely realistic timeline given construction/permitting.
Predictor calibration
Not assigned
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Linked
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
—
Outside weight
—
no pull
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
0 prob_history rows
No probability history yet.
Milestone chain
Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
No incoming edges.
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_049 Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by phys — Alex Wissner-Gross | 44.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.147 |
| prereq | 238_046 xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale — Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | 44.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.141 |
| prereq | 238_066 Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data c — Pete (audience, data center builder) | 40.7% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.132 |
| prereq | 238_067 US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — d — Dave Blundin | 41.2% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| prereq | 246_018 Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary — Alex Wissner-Gross | 36.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.110 |
Prerequisites (0)
Predictions that must hit first
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (15)
Predictions enabled by this
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 242_008 | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_067 | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_049 | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_046 | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Energy | — |
| prereq | 238_066 | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US high-school-football towns | Energy | — |
| prereq | 246_018 | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar propulsion, not data centers. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_046 | Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... | Geopolitics | — |
| correlate | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_044 | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government support | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_059 | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Energy | — |
| correlate | FUT_018 | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geographic solar irradiance for massive arrays AND secure domestic raw materials (copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths) for battery storage achieve unparalleled industrial autonom... | Energy | — |
| correlate | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| correlate | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_055 | Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_057 | Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors. | Energy | — |
Linked documents (2)
Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.574 | manifold | Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
| 0.574 | manifold | Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-30 |
Raw metadata
From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
"fork_key": "grid",
"dimension": "energy_grid_expansion",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Energy / grid",
"family_order": 2
}