Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source
Prediction text
Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | the statistic is something like a pretty sustained 8% year-over-year increase per constant dollar in battery energy densities for the bleeding edge chemistries. So in some sense there I not in some sense in a very real sense there is a Moors law
Verbatim quote
the statistic is something like a pretty sustained 8% year-over-year increase per constant dollar in battery energy densities for the bleeding edge chemistries. So in some sense there I not in some sense in a very real sense there is a Moors law
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.084 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.058 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED | 50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.545 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.6.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-04-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "8% YoY",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "8% year-over-year increase per constant dollar in battery energy densities",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "the statistic is something like a pretty sustained 8% year-over-year increase per constant dollar in battery energy densities for the bleeding edge chemistries. So in some sense there I not in some sense in a very real sense there is a Moors law",
"conv_cues": "very real sense; Moors law",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Ongoing",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
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{
"kind": "event",
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},
{
"kind": "cascade",
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],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Moonshots",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 247,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-07-23",
"episode_date": "2026-04-14",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
... (truncated)