Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries. | Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini)
Key catalyst: Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini)
Verbatim quote
Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.
Resolution evidence
Alex's math/physics/biology cooked call; directionally validated by AlphaFold3, AlphaProof, GPT-5.4 reasoning. 'Cooked' is hyperbole, 'rapidly progressing' accurate.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-07-31hitFrontier model achieves IMO gold-medal performance in formal proof generationHow: Frontier LLM scores >=35/42 on official International Mathematical Olympiad with verified evaluationSource: https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/conf 99%Notes: HIT — Gemini Deep Think + OpenAI experimental model scored gold at IMO 2025.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venueHow: Peer-reviewed Nature/Science/PRL paper credits frontier AI with the derivation of a novel non-trivial physics result (not just literature synthesis)Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/physical-superintelligenceconf 50%Notes: Wissner-Gross's PSI lab explicitly targets 'reasons like a theorist, validates like a computational physicist' system.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjectureHow: Lean / Coq / Isabelle formally verified proof of a previously-open Fields-Medal-tier theorem published in arXiv with peer review or accepted by Annals of MathSource: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09833-yconf 40%Notes: AlphaProof Nature paper sets up infrastructure for this. Threshold from 'olympiad' to 'Fields-Medal' is large.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cycleHow: Public demonstration of AI-orchestrated autonomous lab (Emerald Cloud / Recursion / Isomorphic / Insilico) completing hypothesis-experiment-publication cycle with verified novel biological findingSource: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 40%Notes: Cascade — Wissner-Gross 'Solution Wavefront' Phase 2 (2028-2031) targets bio. Char-broiled biology timeline aggressive.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.620 | +0.209 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.620 | +0.180 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.620 | +0.152 |
| prereq | 241_006 Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom — Eric Schmidt | 78.9% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.140 |
| prereq | 233_020 Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent u — Joe Liemandt | 77.3% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.133 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.100 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.100 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.090 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.079 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (103)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_006 | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_020 | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program. | Education | — |
| prereq | 241_004 | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporation | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_047 | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 241_052 | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Energy | — |
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_014 | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | 238_020 | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_025 | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_011 | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 232_018 | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_054 | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 247_046 | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | AI | — |
| prereq | 233_016 | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | Education | — |
| prereq | 247_041 | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 235_022 | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Energy | — |
| prereq | 237_001 | Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_002 | We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed. | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_032 | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 238_004 | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 243_044 | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 241_060 | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_056 | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_024 | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Space | — |
| prereq | 241_026 | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Space | — |
| prereq | 238_017 | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Labor/Jobs | — |
| prereq | 247_006 | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_049 | Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_017 | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Energy | — |
| prereq | 240_005 | The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and government | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_047 | Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmen | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_014 | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | AI | — |
| prereq | 243_043 | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 243_041 | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Consumer | — |
| prereq | 229_007 | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 241_062 | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_019 | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_031 | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_027 | AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future). | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_037 | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_036 | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | AI | — |
| prereq | 244_035 | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Other | — |
| prereq | 241_055 | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Space | — |
| prereq | 237_024 | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). | AI | — |
| prereq | 246_035 | Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 244_016 | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_025 | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_006 | Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 229_015 | The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 232_013 | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_025 | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_006 | OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decades | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 241_032 | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_033 | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_034 | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_040 | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_041 | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_046 | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_051 | AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_008 | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_024 | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Other | — |
| prereq | 240_046 | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Media/Ads | — |
| prereq | 238_005 | By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_018 | We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. | AI | — |
| prereq | 237_016 | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 245_035 | Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled back | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_023 | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | AI | — |
| prereq | 229_004 | By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China. | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 234_050 | Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_027 | Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 234_026 | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_048 | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 248_028 | Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_032 | First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 248_036 | AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions. | AI | — |
| prereq | 230_001 | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet). | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_049 | Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_035 | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | AI | — |
| prereq | 240_015 | Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's play | AI | — |
| prereq | 238_047 | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Energy | — |
| prereq | 247_012 | The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improving | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_044 | Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_009 | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. | Education | — |
| prereq | 240_045 | White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) | Geopolitics | — |
| prereq | 248_025 | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects. | Other | — |
| prereq | 246_030 | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 246_048 | Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_031 | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 240_031 | Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_014 | If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. | AI | — |
| prereq | 245_017 | Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollars | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 235_035 | Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026. | AI | — |
| prereq | 248_029 | Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-06-30 | [Capability 2027-06] employment rate; Yang quarterly updates [231_013] Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini) [230_006] The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-o | pending |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel...Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.",
"conv_cues": "cooked; going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal performance in formal proof generation",
"notes": "HIT — Gemini Deep Think + OpenAI experimental model scored gold at IMO 2025.",
"source": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
"expected_date": "2025-07-31",
"observed_date": "2025-07-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Frontier LLM scores >=35/42 on official International Mathematical Olympiad with verified evaluation"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "229_047",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "230_001",
"expected_date": "2026-06-02",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "229_006",
"expected_date": "2026-06-17",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "229_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "229_007",
"expected_date": "2026-06-28",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "229_004",
"expected_date": "2026-07-18",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venue",
"notes": "Wissner-Gross's PSI lab explicitly targets 'reasons like a theorist, validates like a computational physicist' system.",
"source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/physical-superintelligence",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confid
... (truncated)