← Cockpit
231_013predictionAIAI-timing

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
62.0%
Current probability
35.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
103 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries. | Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini)

Key catalyst: Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini)

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Alex's math/physics/biology cooked call; directionally validated by AlphaFold3, AlphaProof, GPT-5.4 reasoning. 'Cooked' is hyperbole, 'rapidly progressing' accurate.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 62%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 8 pending
  1. 2025-07-31hitFrontier model achieves IMO gold-medal performance in formal proof generation
    How: Frontier LLM scores >=35/42 on official International Mathematical Olympiad with verified evaluation
    Source: https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Gemini Deep Think + OpenAI experimental model scored gold at IMO 2025.
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venue
    How: Peer-reviewed Nature/Science/PRL paper credits frontier AI with the derivation of a novel non-trivial physics result (not just literature synthesis)
    Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/physical-superintelligenceconf 50%
    Notes: Wissner-Gross's PSI lab explicitly targets 'reasons like a theorist, validates like a computational physicist' system.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI system formally verifies a Fields-Medal-class open math conjecture
    How: Lean / Coq / Isabelle formally verified proof of a previously-open Fields-Medal-tier theorem published in arXiv with peer review or accepted by Annals of Math
    Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09833-yconf 40%
    Notes: AlphaProof Nature paper sets up infrastructure for this. Threshold from 'olympiad' to 'Fields-Medal' is large.
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingAI-driven biology lab autonomously completes wet-lab discovery cycle
    How: Public demonstration of AI-orchestrated autonomous lab (Emerald Cloud / Recursion / Isomorphic / Insilico) completing hypothesis-experiment-publication cycle with verified novel biological finding
    Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — Wissner-Gross 'Solution Wavefront' Phase 2 (2028-2031) targets bio. Char-broiled biology timeline aggressive.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z35.4%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 36.7% → 35.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.7%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 39.1% → 36.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.1%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 43.3% → 39.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z43.3%-6.8pp
Network propagation: 50.1% → 43.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z50.1%-11.9pp
Network propagation: 62.0% → 50.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.620+0.209
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.620+0.180
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.620+0.152
prereq241_006
Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boomEric Schmidt
78.9%0.6200.050+0.140
prereq233_020
Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent uJoe Liemandt
77.3%0.6200.050+0.133

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.100
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.100
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.090
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.079
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.064

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (103)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq241_006Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boomAI
prereq233_020Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billion-dollar voucher program.Education
prereq241_004AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, or corporationAI
prereq229_047Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereq241_052Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile longEnergy
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereq232_014Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.AI
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereq238_020Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)AI
prereq237_025We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2040s as originally expected.AI
prereq241_011By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skillLabor/Jobs
prereq232_018We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years: nonhuman intelligence arrived.AI
prereq241_054Space wins by far on energy argument for data centersSpace
prereq247_046AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025AI
prereq233_016Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.Education
prereq247_041AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditionalBiotech/Longevity
prereq235_022US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year.Energy
prereq237_001Increased hacker profile and AI-driven social engineering attacks will become more and more prevalent.AI
prereq237_002We will see a lot of evolution and many OpenClaw variants emerging very quickly as an early domain being developed.AI
prereq244_032Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026)Markets/Stocks
prereq238_004Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the futureMedia/Ads
prereq243_044Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim)Auto/Transport
prereq241_060Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centersSpace
prereq240_056Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months)AI
prereq241_024Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressedSpace
prereq241_026Space data center technology is understood and largely figured outSpace
prereq238_017Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026)Labor/Jobs
prereq247_006Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026AI
prereq241_049Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't crossAI
prereq241_017Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being builtEnergy
prereq240_005The organizational singularity will impact every company, nonprofit, and governmentAI
prereq241_047Universities should create prompt engineering course starting September for all freshmenEducation
prereq240_014Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 monthsAI
prereq243_043Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150KAuto/Transport
prereq243_041Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expectedConsumer
prereq229_007Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.Robotics
prereq241_062Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment)AI
prereq241_019AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yetAI
prereq241_031Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvementAI
prereq246_027AI models will be capable enough for terrorist groups to create novel pathogens (near future).AI
prereq241_037Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weightsAI
prereq241_036No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to warAI
prereq244_035Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilitiesOther
prereq241_055Next frontier of AI infrastructure is spaceSpace
prereq237_024Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation).AI
prereq246_035Terafab pilot phase is $25B, yielding ~$4B/year revenue for Intel.AI
prereq241_01692 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030Energy
prereq244_016AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry todayAuto/Transport
prereq246_025Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026).AI
prereq229_006Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.Robotics
prereq229_015The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.Robotics
prereq232_013Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity.AI
prereq238_025AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human levelAI
prereq240_006OpenClaw on AWS will be the biggest enterprise unlock in decadesAI
prereq240_034Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028Energy
prereq241_032World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scaleAI
prereq241_033Few frontier AI companies will be in ChinaAI
prereq241_034One or two frontier AI companies in EuropeAI
prereq241_040A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to actAI
prereq241_041Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangersAI
prereq241_046Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systemsAI
prereq241_051AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new thingsAI
prereq248_008Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year.AI
prereq248_024AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Other
prereq240_046Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two daysMedia/Ads
prereq238_005By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly freeAI
prereq237_018We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come.AI
prereq237_016A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost.Markets/Stocks
prereq245_035Gene drive tech is safer than prior dispersals and can be rolled backBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_023Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket.AI
prereq229_004By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.Geopolitics
prereq234_050Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilitiesAI
prereq234_027Element Biosciences will launch $600K desktop $100-per-genome machine in second half of 2026Biotech/Longevity
prereq234_026AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in monthsAI
prereq247_048Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollarEnergy
prereq248_028Personalized AI-designed medicine stories will repeat until it's n=10 billion.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_032First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive.Biotech/Longevity
prereq248_036AI will enable one-person conglomerates and one-person religions.AI
prereq230_001A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).AI
prereq248_049Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision.AI
prereq241_035Maybe one frontier AI company in IndiaAI
prereq240_015Post-transformer architectures will make a 1000x cost reduction look like child's playAI
prereq238_047US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solarEnergy
prereq247_012The bar for AI startups will rise to require being recursively self-improvingAI
prereq248_044Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable.Biotech/Longevity
prereq233_009A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026.Education
prereq240_045White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer)Geopolitics
prereq248_025Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while proliferating micro cults/sects.Other
prereq246_030DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases.Markets/Stocks
prereq246_048Anthropic Mythos is ~5x more expensive than Opus, likely won't be widely run.AI
prereq248_031Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year.Biotech/Longevity
prereq240_031Samsung will be optimized by orders of magnitude by ElonAI
prereq248_014If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip.AI
prereq245_017Disease/drought-resistant plants and animals market is currently hundreds of billions of dollarsBiotech/Longevity
prereq235_035Apple finally launching AI with Gemini integration at WWDC in June 2026.AI
prereq248_029Regime change at the FDA is not beyond the realm of reason.Biotech/Longevity
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-06-30[Capability 2027-06] employment rate; Yang quarterly updates [231_013] Next frontier model release (Claude/GPT/Gemini) [230_006] The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-opending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel...Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Math is cooked. Yes, math is cooked. Physics is cooked. biology is going to be broiled, char broiled, and we're going to be the beneficiaries.",
  "conv_cues": "cooked; going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal performance in formal proof generation",
      "notes": "HIT — Gemini Deep Think + OpenAI experimental model scored gold at IMO 2025.",
      "source": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier LLM scores >=35/42 on official International Mathematical Olympiad with verified evaluation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with much larger GPUs planned.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "229_047",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with human as legal puppet).",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "230_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure will graduate from room-scale autonomy to full-house autonomy next.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "229_006",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "The current Figure facility will top out around 50,000 units per year at full capacity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "229_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from logistics to full-body long-horizon control.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "229_007",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By summer 2026, Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "229_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI demonstrates novel physics derivation in peer-reviewed venue",
      "notes": "Wissner-Gross's PSI lab explicitly targets 'reasons like a theorist, validates like a computational physicist' system.",
      "source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/physical-superintelligence",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confid
... (truncated)