241_033predictionAIAI-timing

Few frontier AI companies will be in China

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability

55.0%

Current probability

47.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

9 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Few frontier AI companies will be in China | I think there'll be a few in in China

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"

I think there'll be a few in in China

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0064

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 5 fired ✓

2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-29hitTraining runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
2026-04-29hitAnthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026
2026-04-29hit2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
2026-04-29hitRecursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
2026-06-21pendingFew frontier AI companies will be in China
2027-06-26pendingMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2028-09-07pendingBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.
2033-07-30pendingRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.
2033-08-10pendingASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z47.1%-1.1pp

Network propagation: 48.2% → 47.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.2%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 49.6% → 48.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.6%-2.1pp

Network propagation: 51.7% → 49.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.7%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis	67.1%	0.550	0.050	-0.088
prereq	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil	73.8%	0.550	0.050	-0.056
prereq	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang	75.0%	0.550	0.050	-0.049
prereq	SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei	76.9%	0.550	0.050	-0.040
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.550	+0.039

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross	35.4%	0.620	0.050	-0.039
prereq	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman	31.4%	0.550	0.050	-0.032
prereq	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis	35.9%	0.650	0.050	-0.030
prereq	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil	39.2%	0.750	0.050	-0.017
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	-0.003

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (9)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_008	Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.	AI	—
prereq	238_009	Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)	AI	—
prereq	234_012	Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026	Markets/Stocks	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_042	2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.	AI/Agents	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	235_030	Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	241_043	ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade	AI	—
prereq	231_013	Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.	AI	—
prereq	CMQ_002	By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.	AI	—

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.578	manifold	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?	54%	mentions	pending	2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "a few in China",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "there'll be a few in in China",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I think there'll be a few in in China",
  "conv_cues": "I think",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Few frontier AI companies will be in China",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
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      "source_id": "241_033",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2027-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_002",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-07",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "235_030",
      "expected_date": "2033-07-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "241_043",
      "expected_date": "2033-08-10",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "former Google CEO",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 241,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-06-21",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-24",
  "parse_me
... (truncated)