Ticker × Scenario Pressure Heatmap

cache age 339h 51m

Each cell is directional probability pressure for a ticker under a scenario: scenario-driven probability deltas for bull links add, adverse-link deltas subtract. Green = ticker thesis set improves if the scenario fires; red = ticker thesis set deteriorates. This is not expected stock return until approved expected_move_pct values exist.

Current scoring mode

Score: weighted scenario_counterfactual.delta_pos, signed by ticker role.

Role weights: pure_play +1.00 · multi_vector +0.45 · adverse -0.75.

Cells: 888 · 222 positive · 666 negative.

Avg |pressure|: 4.6pp · Max: 5.4pp

Expected-move coverage: 0/31420 active public ticker links modeled.

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All families Compute scale (cumulative)Energy / grid (cumulative)Humanoid deployment (cumulative)Robotaxi (cumulative)AGI ASI $1T+ IPO Mars uncrewed AI pause Recession

Ticker	COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute scale · prior 60%	COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute scale · prior 40%	COMPUTE_100GW_2030 Compute scale · prior 20%	COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Compute scale · prior 15%	GRID_50GW_2027 Energy / grid · prior 40%	GRID_50GW_2029 Energy / grid · prior 50%	GRID_50GW_DELAYED Energy / grid · prior 10%	HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026 Humanoid deployment · prior 40%	HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid deployment · prior 50%	HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid deployment · prior 20%	HUMANOID_MASS_2033 Humanoid deployment · prior 10%	ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Robotaxi · prior 40%	ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 Robotaxi · prior 45%	ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi · prior 30%	ROBOTAXI_DELAYED Robotaxi · prior 20%	AGI_FAST_2027 AGI · prior 30%	AGI_MID_2029 AGI · prior 35%	AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI · prior 25%	AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI · prior 10%	ASI_FAST_2031 ASI · prior 10%	ASI_MID_2034 ASI · prior 30%	ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI · prior 60%	IPO_TRILLION_2026 $1T+ IPO · prior 25%	IPO_TRILLION_2027 $1T+ IPO · prior 40%	IPO_TRILLION_2028 $1T+ IPO · prior 25%	IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y $1T+ IPO · prior 10%	MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed · prior 25%	MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed · prior 50%	MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed · prior 25%	AI_PAUSE_2026 AI pause · prior 5%	AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause · prior 10%	AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause · prior 10%	NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y AI pause · prior 75%	RECESSION_2026 Recession · prior 20%	RECESSION_2027 Recession · prior 30%	RECESSION_2028 Recession · prior 30%	NO_RECESSION_5Y Recession · prior 20%
IBM IBM · 1224	+1.9	+2.0	+2.0	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+1.8	+2.0	+1.8	+2.1	+2.1	+2.2	+2.2	+2.1	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0	+2.0
AMZN Amazon.com · 987	-4.3	-4.5	-4.5	-4.3	-4.2	-4.3	-4.3	-4.2	-4.1	-3.9	-4.1	-4.3	-4.3	-4.2	-4.3	-4.5	-4.3	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.8	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.7
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) · 960	-4.4	-4.6	-4.6	-4.4	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.0	-4.4	-4.5	-4.3	-4.8	-4.8	-5.0	-5.0	-4.7	-4.7	-4.8	-4.7	-4.9	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8
NVDA NVIDIA · 899	-4.3	-4.6	-4.6	-4.4	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.2	-4.1	-4.2	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.4	-4.5	-4.3	-4.8	-4.8	-5.0	-5.0	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.8	-4.8	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.7	-4.7	-4.8	-4.8
MSFT Microsoft · 853	-4.4	-4.7	-4.6	-4.4	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.6	-4.4	-5.0	-4.9	-5.1	-5.1	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9
META Meta Platforms · 847	-4.4	-4.7	-4.6	-4.5	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.6	-4.4	-5.0	-5.0	-5.2	-5.1	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9
ORCL Oracle · 796	-4.4	-4.8	-4.7	-4.5	-4.3	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.6	-4.5	-5.0	-5.0	-5.2	-5.1	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9
CRWV CoreWeave · 721	-4.3	-4.6	-4.5	-4.3	-4.1	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	-4.2	-4.3	-4.5	-4.2	-4.7	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.6	-4.5	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.8	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.7
ACN · 714	+4.6	+4.9	+4.9	+4.6	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+4.7	+4.6	+5.1	+5.1	+5.4	+5.3	+5.0	+4.9	+5.0	+4.9	+5.0	+4.9	+4.8	+4.9	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.1	+4.9	+4.9	+5.0	+5.0
CHGG Chegg · 701	+4.6	+5.0	+5.0	+4.6	+4.5	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.6	+4.5	+4.6	+4.8	+4.6	+5.2	+5.2	+5.4	+5.4	+5.1	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.1	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+5.1	+5.1	+5.1	+5.1	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0
APLD Applied Digital · 664	-4.4	-4.8	-4.8	-4.5	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.7	-4.4	-4.9	-4.9	-5.2	-5.1	-4.9	-4.7	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8
SFTBY SoftBank Group · 659	-4.5	-4.8	-4.8	-4.5	-4.3	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.8	-4.4	-5.0	-5.0	-5.2	-5.2	-5.0	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.8	-4.7	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8	-4.8
WNS · 646	+4.6	+4.9	+4.9	+4.6	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+4.5	+4.4	+4.6	+4.8	+4.5	+5.1	+5.1	+5.3	+5.2	+5.0	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+5.0	+4.8	+4.8	+4.8	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9
GTLB GitLab · 535	-4.6	-4.9	-4.8	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-5.1	-5.1	-5.3	-5.2	-4.9	-5.0	-5.1	-5.0	-5.1	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0	-5.1	-5.0	-5.0	-5.0	-5.1
AI C3.ai · 504	-4.4	-4.8	-4.8	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.6	-5.0	-5.0	-5.2	-5.1	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0
SOUN SoundHound AI · 502	-4.4	-4.8	-4.8	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.4	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.6	-5.0	-5.0	-5.2	-5.1	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0
BBAI BigBear.ai · 500	-4.5	-4.8	-4.8	-4.5	-4.4	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.6	-5.1	-5.0	-5.2	-5.2	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.8	-4.7	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0
BABA Alibaba · 472	-4.6	-5.0	-5.0	-4.6	-4.5	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-4.5	-4.6	-5.1	-5.1	-5.4	-5.3	-4.9	-5.1	-5.1	-5.0	-5.1	-5.0	-4.9	-5.0	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	-5.2	-5.1	-5.1	-5.1	-5.2
QCOM Qualcomm · 464	-4.5	-4.8	-4.7	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-3.8	-4.6	-4.5	-4.4	-4.8	-4.8	-5.1	-5.1	-4.8	-4.9	-5.0	-4.9	-5.0	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.7	-4.7	-5.1	-4.9	-4.9	-5.0	-5.0
AMD Advanced Micro Devices · 435	-3.6	-3.9	-3.8	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.6	-3.7	-3.7	-3.6	-4.0	-4.0	-4.1	-4.1	-3.9	-4.0	-4.0	-3.9	-4.0	-3.9	-3.8	-3.9	-3.9	-3.9	-3.9	-4.1	-4.0	-3.9	-4.0	-4.0
INFY · 432	+4.5	+4.9	+4.9	+4.5	+4.4	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+5.1	+5.1	+5.3	+5.3	+4.8	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+4.9	+4.8	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+5.1	+5.0	+4.9	+5.0	+5.0
CTSH · 431	+4.5	+4.9	+4.9	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.5	+4.6	+5.1	+5.1	+5.4	+5.3	+4.9	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+5.0	+4.9	+4.8	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+4.9	+5.1	+5.0	+5.0	+5.1	+5.0
SITM SiTime · 420	-4.3	-4.6	-4.5	-4.4	-4.2	-4.3	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.3	-4.3	-4.4	-4.3	-4.3	-4.4	-4.3	-4.2	-4.6	-4.6	-4.9	-4.8	-4.6	-4.7	-4.8	-4.7	-4.8	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.5	-4.5	-4.5	-4.9	-4.8	-4.7	-4.8	-4.8
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor · 409	-4.4	-4.7	-4.6	-4.4	-4.3	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.4	-4.2	-4.7	-4.6	-5.0	-4.9	-4.7	-4.8	-4.9	-4.8	-4.9	-4.7	-4.6	-4.7	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	-5.0	-4.8	-4.8	-4.9	-4.9

Reading the heatmap

A few patterns worth looking for

Solid green row (ticker is green across most scenarios) — most scenario clamps improve the ticker's linked prediction set. It is not a price target.
Bimodal row (ticker is green in some scenarios and red in others) — the ticker is sensitive to which fork fires; use the row to identify scenario risk.
Solid green column (scenario is green for most tickers) — the scenario broadly improves the tracked ticker thesis set. Validate with expected-move coverage before treating it as portfolio expected return.
"—" cells = the ticker/scenario pair has no active public ticker-linked prediction deltas in the counterfactual cache.