Ticker × Scenario Pressure Heatmap
cache age 361h 7mEach cell is directional probability pressure for a ticker under a scenario: scenario-driven probability deltas for bull links add, adverse-link deltas subtract. Green = ticker thesis set improves if the scenario fires; red = ticker thesis set deteriorates. This is not expected stock return until approved expected_move_pct values exist.
Current scoring mode
Score: weighted
scenario_counterfactual.delta_pos, signed by ticker role.Role weights: pure_play +1.00 · multi_vector +0.45 · adverse -0.75.
Cells: 96 · 24 positive · 72 negative.
Avg |pressure|: 4.7pp · Max: 5.2pp
Expected-move coverage: 0/31420 active public ticker links modeled.
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| Ticker | AI_PAUSE_2026 AI pause · prior 5% | AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause · prior 10% | AI_PAUSE_2028 AI pause · prior 10% | NO_AI_PAUSE_5Y AI pause · prior 75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
IBM IBM · 1224 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 | +2.0 |
AMZN Amazon.com · 987 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.7 |
GOOGL Alphabet (Google) · 960 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.9 |
NVDA NVIDIA · 899 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.8 | -4.8 |
MSFT Microsoft · 853 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 |
META Meta Platforms · 847 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 |
ORCL Oracle · 796 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 |
CRWV CoreWeave · 721 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -4.8 |
ACN · 714 | +5.0 | +5.0 | +5.0 | +5.1 |
CHGG Chegg · 701 | +5.1 | +5.1 | +5.1 | +5.1 |
APLD Applied Digital · 664 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 |
SFTBY SoftBank Group · 659 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
WNS · 646 | +5.0 | +5.0 | +5.0 | +5.0 |
GTLB GitLab · 535 | -5.0 | -5.0 | -5.0 | -5.1 |
AI C3.ai · 504 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
SOUN SoundHound AI · 502 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
BBAI BigBear.ai · 500 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5.0 |
BABA Alibaba · 472 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5.2 |
QCOM Qualcomm · 464 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -5.1 |
AMD Advanced Micro Devices · 435 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -4.1 |
INFY · 432 | +4.9 | +4.9 | +4.9 | +5.1 |
CTSH · 431 | +4.9 | +4.9 | +4.9 | +5.1 |
SITM SiTime · 420 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.9 |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor · 409 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -5.0 |
Reading the heatmap
A few patterns worth looking for
- Solid green row (ticker is green across most scenarios) — most scenario clamps improve the ticker's linked prediction set. It is not a price target.
- Bimodal row (ticker is green in some scenarios and red in others) — the ticker is sensitive to which fork fires; use the row to identify scenario risk.
- Solid green column (scenario is green for most tickers) — the scenario broadly improves the tracked ticker thesis set. Validate with expected-move coverage before treating it as portfolio expected return.
- "—" cells = the ticker/scenario pair has no active public ticker-linked prediction deltas in the counterfactual cache.