Ticker × Scenario Pressure Heatmap

cache age 348h 15m

Each cell is directional probability pressure for a ticker under a scenario: scenario-driven probability deltas for bull links add, adverse-link deltas subtract. Green = ticker thesis set improves if the scenario fires; red = ticker thesis set deteriorates. This is not expected stock return until approved expected_move_pct values exist.

Current scoring mode

Score: weighted scenario_counterfactual.delta_pos, signed by ticker role.
Role weights: pure_play +1.00 · multi_vector +0.45 · adverse -0.75.
Cells: 72 · 18 positive · 54 negative.
Avg |pressure|: 4.3pp · Max: 4.6pp
Expected-move coverage: 0/31420 active public ticker links modeled.

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Ticker
GRID_50GW_2027
Energy / grid · prior 40%
GRID_50GW_2029
Energy / grid · prior 50%
GRID_50GW_DELAYED
Energy / grid · prior 10%
IBM
IBM · 1224
+1.8+1.8+1.8
AMZN
Amazon.com · 987
-4.2-4.3-4.3
GOOGL
Alphabet (Google) · 960
-4.3-4.4-4.4
NVDA
NVIDIA · 899
-4.3-4.3-4.3
MSFT
Microsoft · 853
-4.3-4.4-4.4
META
Meta Platforms · 847
-4.3-4.4-4.4
ORCL
Oracle · 796
-4.3-4.5-4.5
CRWV
CoreWeave · 721
-4.1-4.3-4.3
ACN
· 714
+4.5+4.5+4.6
CHGG
Chegg · 701
+4.5+4.6+4.6
APLD
Applied Digital · 664
-4.3-4.4-4.4
SFTBY
SoftBank Group · 659
-4.3-4.5-4.5
WNS
· 646
+4.5+4.5+4.5
GTLB
GitLab · 535
-4.6-4.6-4.6
AI
C3.ai · 504
-4.4-4.5-4.5
SOUN
SoundHound AI · 502
-4.4-4.4-4.5
BBAI
BigBear.ai · 500
-4.4-4.5-4.5
BABA
Alibaba · 472
-4.5-4.6-4.6
QCOM
Qualcomm · 464
-4.5-4.5-4.5
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices · 435
-3.6-3.6-3.6
INFY
· 432
+4.4+4.5+4.5
CTSH
· 431
+4.5+4.5+4.5
SITM
SiTime · 420
-4.2-4.3-4.3
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor · 409
-4.3-4.4-4.4

Reading the heatmap

A few patterns worth looking for
  • Solid green row (ticker is green across most scenarios) — most scenario clamps improve the ticker's linked prediction set. It is not a price target.
  • Bimodal row (ticker is green in some scenarios and red in others) — the ticker is sensitive to which fork fires; use the row to identify scenario risk.
  • Solid green column (scenario is green for most tickers) — the scenario broadly improves the tracked ticker thesis set. Validate with expected-move coverage before treating it as portfolio expected return.
  • "—" cells = the ticker/scenario pair has no active public ticker-linked prediction deltas in the counterfactual cache.