Data Hygiene

Surface data quality issues that would silently degrade inference. Each section is actionable — fix the root cause, then re-run the relevant downstream cron (LBP / CF refresh / link_docs_to_nodes).

Predictions w/ NULL prob/window
24
Out-of-range probs
0
Edges w/ NULL conditionals
0
Resolved-early w/o resolved_at
5
92 resolved-early total
Orphan ticker references
0
Isolated high-conv claims
29
conviction ≥4, no tickers, no scenario edges
Sparse scenarios (<8 linked)
3
lanes with <8 dots are hard to read
CF cache scenarios
37
latest 2026-05-24T04:31
Milestones w/o criterion
10196
6472/16668 have criterion · 1327 preds enriched
Ticker moves unmodeled
32999
0/32999 public impact links modeled · 0 staged
Backward prereqs
95
165 DROP correlates hidden · 22 negative correlates
Terminal w/o history
5
191 overdue active · 40 staged recalibrations
Source hosts unseeded
4
202/206 document hosts seeded

Predictions with NULL window or current_prob

Fix at intake or via /api/intake. Without these, the prediction is filtered out of every fork view.
  • 236_010 — 5% wealth tax would result in zero billionaires by next day[NULL window_end ]
  • 238_031 — Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era[NULL window_end ]
  • 238_050 — Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; rep[NULL window_end ]
  • 238_057 — Laws of economics and thermodynamics will still apply despite AI abundance[NULL window_end ]
  • 238_069 — The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive natio[NULL window_end ]
  • 239_017 — Future is 80%+ likely to be great[NULL window_end ]
  • 239_026 — Future will be very entertaining[NULL window_end ]
  • 240_023 — 45% of dementia cases are entirely preventable[NULL window_end ]
  • 240_052 — Uploading consciousness (whole brain emulation) really will be you in the future[NULL window_end ]
  • 243_046 — When Uber opens in a market, drunk driving incidents go down significantly[NULL window_end ]
  • 244_008 — If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up[NULL window_end ]
  • 244_014 — AV is an industry where Chinese players have a lot to offer[NULL window_end ]
  • 244_021 — AI press will continue to dramatize machines replacing humans[NULL window_end ]
  • 244_030 — Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world[NULL window_end ]
  • 244_034 — Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite[NULL window_end ]
  • 245_004 — EY estimates the extinct-species educational/consumer market at $1.7 trillion an[NULL window_end ]
  • 245_023 — Colossal considers de-extinction and species preservation a $10 trillion opportu[NULL window_end ]
  • 245_031 — 99% of synthetic biology focus will remain on human healthcare; similar tech app[NULL window_end ]
  • 245_032 — Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educatio[NULL window_end ]
  • 245_034 — Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods[NULL window_end ]

3 scenarios with <8 linked predictions

Fork lanes look thin. Run scripts/ops/backfill_scenario_prediction_edges.py with a lower --threshold (e.g. 0.58) to add more correlate edges.
  • S_IPO_TRILLION_NONE_5Y ($1T+ IPO) — 1 linked · No $1T+ IPO through 2031
  • S_ROBOTAXI_DELAYED (Robotaxi) — 4 linked · Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031
  • S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE (Compute scale) — 7 linked · Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029

29 high-conviction (≥4) claims with no ticker + no scenario edges

These are 'orphan' high-conviction claims. They don't appear in any tradeable fork view. Either link to a ticker or to a scenario family.
  • AUT_006 conv 5/5 — 2027 opening of the world's largest genetic BioVault in Dubai — infras
  • FUT_014 conv 5/5 — 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia
  • IND_014 conv 5/5 — Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structura
  • INF_031 conv 5/5 — The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves a
  • IND_003 conv 5/5 — Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for
  • AI_033 conv 5/5 — AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional acad
  • ROB_010 conv 5/5 — 'Watts are wealth' — as machines progressively take over physical prod
  • CYB_023 conv 5/5 — Immutable cryptographic verification layers — specifically Bitcoin — m
  • IND_026 conv 5/5 — Non-coders and engineers alike must build for 'where the models are go
  • INF_030 conv 4/5 — By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational cap
  • CMQ_059 conv 4/5 — Shift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) co
  • AI_029 conv 4/5 — Blockchain provenance protocols will be increasingly applied to enterp
  • CYB_006 conv 4/5 — When AI agents possess the ability to read, write, and restructure the
  • CYB_014 conv 4/5 — The Exponential Organization (ExO) framework becomes mandatory corpora
  • AI_025 conv 4/5 — Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade int
  • SPC_030 conv 4/5 — Eureka Labs vision: 'teacher + AI symbiosis' that scales human experti
  • AI_024 conv 4/5 — As AI-generated video becomes indistinguishable from reality, a massiv
  • AI_034 conv 4/5 — The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approxim
  • CYB_002 conv 4/5 — Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, th
  • CMQ_058 conv 4/5 — Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI M

Ticker impact links without approved move magnitudes

Run scripts/ops/stage_ticker_expected_moves.py to stage candidates. Promotion requires explicit metadata approval; existing links are preserved.

0 modeled · 32999 unknown · 0 staged candidates · 0 approved candidates.

Temporal prereq inversions (showing 20)

These edges may be valid evidence links, but as prereqs they imply a later event gates an earlier event. Review for reversal, reclassification, or conversion to a milestone.
  • 240_049 (2040-12-31) → 232_057 (2031-06-30)Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, u / First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed ma
  • 234_008 (2040-12-31) → 232_057 (2031-06-30)Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic wi / First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed ma
  • 240_026 (2040-05-31) → 232_057 (2031-06-30)Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Ter / First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed ma
  • 234_024 (2040-12-31) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Financial systems between AI and blockchain will bec / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 238_060 (2040-12-31) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be requ / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 239_018 (2040-12-31) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Universal High Income will be implemented / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 245_038 (2040-12-31) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable o / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 240_030 (2040-11-30) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Tesla's independent chip production would derisk pot / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 230_050 (2038-06-30) → 232_057 (2031-06-30)One of the hidden Nvidia-style AI beneficiaries will / First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed ma
  • 236_044 (2040-09-30) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Universities turning into incubators/venture studios / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 236_038 (2040-09-30) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transitio / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 236_043 (2040-05-31) → 235_030 (2033-09-30)Universities will become largest incubators on the p / Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV
  • 246_016 (2034-11-30) → COD_SPC_005 (2028-07-31)Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita / NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July
  • 245_038 (2040-12-31) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable o / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 234_008 (2040-12-31) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Workflows will move from human-centric to agentic wi / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 240_049 (2040-12-31) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Last jobs to be automated will be government jobs, u / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 236_044 (2040-09-30) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Universities turning into incubators/venture studios / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 236_038 (2040-09-30) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Universities (Harvard, MIT, Stanford) will transitio / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 236_043 (2040-05-31) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Universities will become largest incubators on the p / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita
  • 240_026 (2040-05-31) → 246_016 (2034-11-30)Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Ter / Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Tita

Overdue active predictions needing adjudication or recalibration (showing 30)

These are not killed automatically. Use scripts/ops/stage_recalibration_candidates.py to stage timing-slip candidates for analyst review.
  • SEM_015 conv 5 · ended 2025-12-31 · in_progressNvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government
  • 233_016 conv 5 · ended 2026-05-31 · in_progressAlpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with mo
  • AI_019 conv 5 · ended 2026-05-31 · in_progressCopper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets of 2
  • AUT_020 conv 5 · ended 2026-05-31 · in_progressAI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human
  • AI_033 conv 5 · ended 2026-05-31 · in_progressAI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics in m
  • SPC_005 conv 4 · ended 2025-11-30 · in_progressAST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided $15
  • CMQ_031 conv 4 · ended 2025-12-31 · in_progressAI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; A
  • CMQ_062 conv 4 · ended 2025-12-31 · in_progressPhysicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly
  • 229_033 conv 4 · ended 2026-02-28 · pendingFigure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this
  • 233_009 conv 4 · ended 2026-05-31 · pendingA motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 202
  • 246_004 conv 4 · ended 2026-05-31 · pendingSpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T.
  • 235_016 conv 2 · ended 2026-04-30 · pendingSpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026).
  • PMCI_AVGO_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingAVGO >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_AYI_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingAYI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_BTDR_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingBTDR >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_AGX_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingAGX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_ALL_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingALL >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_AZN_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingAZN >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_BWXT_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingBWXT >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05
  • PMCI_ADI_20260505 conv — · ended 2026-05-12 · pendingADI >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05

Resolved-early hits without metadata.resolved_at

59 hits known to be resolved-early; metadata.resolved_at backfill from prob_history pending.

5 need backfill. See Session 25 master-doc note on the 59-hit resolved-early case.