Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.
Predictor: MacKenzie Price · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source
Prediction text
Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.
Verbatim quote
we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.
Resolution evidence
Alpha Schools 13 new schools in 2026 documented.
Predictor: MacKenzie Price
Evidence about this node from MacKenzie Price is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-04hitAlpha School operates 13 campuses nationwideHow: Alpha School publicly discloses 13 active campuses including Austin, Miami, Scottsdale, San Francisco, Manhattan + 8 others (Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Santa Monica, Palo Alto, Fort Worth, Plano)Source: https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/ — WFMD April 4 2026 reporting on Alpha expansionconf 99%Notes: HIT — Alpha School has 13 campuses confirmed via multiple sources.
- 2026-04-01 → 2027-06-30pendingTeachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven modelHow: NEA, AFT, or state-level teachers union files formal legal challenge or labor complaint against Alpha or peer AI-driven schoolSource: Union press releases, EdWeekconf 55%Notes: WFMD reporting already notes 'union pushback'; formal challenge is escalation step.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingAlpha announces additional campuses for 2027 academic yearHow: Alpha School announces ≥3 additional new campuses for 2027-2028 academic yearSource: Alpha School announcements (alpha.school), Tom's Guide / ABC7 coverageconf 75%
- 2026-08-01 → 2027-12-31pendingPublic-school district pilots Alpha-style 2-Hour Learning modelHow: Public school district announces formal pilot of 2-Hour Learning or licensed Alpha curriculumSource: EdSurge, K-12 Dive, district announcementsconf 40%Notes: Cascade — Alpha's K-12 model would need public adoption to be considered transformative beyond elite tier.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.065 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross | 78.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.049 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.039 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.018 |
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.009 |
| prereq | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross | 35.4% | 0.620 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_009 | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | 231_013 | Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "13 new schools + more",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "McKenzie, where can we point people to learn more about Alpha School? Where do they go to? Well, we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce. So you can go to alpha.school and learn more about our model.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.",
"conv_cues": "we'll be continuing to announce",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "ongoing 2026",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Alpha School operates 13 campuses nationwide",
"notes": "HIT — Alpha School has 13 campuses confirmed via multiple sources.",
"source": "https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/ — WFMD April 4 2026 reporting on Alpha expansion",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-04",
"observed_date": "2026-04-04",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Alpha School publicly discloses 13 active campuses including Austin, Miami, Scottsdale, San Francisco, Manhattan + 8 others (Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Santa Monica, Palo Alto, Fort Worth, Plano)"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": "238_009",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "233_016",
"expected_date": "2026-05-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Teachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven model",
"notes": "WFMD reporting already notes 'union pushback'; formal challenge is escalation step.",
"source": "Union press releases, EdWeek",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2026-11-14",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "NEA, AFT, or state-level teachers union files formal
... (truncated)