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233_016predictionEducationAI-timing

Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.

Predictor: MacKenzie Price · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
55.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come. | we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.

Verbatim quote

From episode "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233"
we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Alpha Schools 13 new schools in 2026 documented.

Predictor: MacKenzie Price

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.500
Brier
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
Hit rate

Evidence about this node from MacKenzie Price is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 55.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓
  1. 2026-04-04hitAlpha School operates 13 campuses nationwide
    How: Alpha School publicly discloses 13 active campuses including Austin, Miami, Scottsdale, San Francisco, Manhattan + 8 others (Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Santa Monica, Palo Alto, Fort Worth, Plano)
    Source: https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/ — WFMD April 4 2026 reporting on Alpha expansionconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Alpha School has 13 campuses confirmed via multiple sources.
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2027-06-30pendingTeachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven model
    How: NEA, AFT, or state-level teachers union files formal legal challenge or labor complaint against Alpha or peer AI-driven school
    Source: Union press releases, EdWeekconf 55%
    Notes: WFMD reporting already notes 'union pushback'; formal challenge is escalation step.
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingAlpha announces additional campuses for 2027 academic year
    How: Alpha School announces ≥3 additional new campuses for 2027-2028 academic year
    Source: Alpha School announcements (alpha.school), Tom's Guide / ABC7 coverageconf 75%
  4. 2026-08-01 → 2027-12-31pendingPublic-school district pilots Alpha-style 2-Hour Learning model
    How: Public school district announces formal pilot of 2-Hour Learning or licensed Alpha curriculum
    Source: EdSurge, K-12 Dive, district announcementsconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — Alpha's K-12 model would need public adoption to be considered transformative beyond elite tier.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z55.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 56.4% → 55.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.4%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 58.2% → 56.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.2%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.065
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.056
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.6500.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.038

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.049
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.039
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050+0.018
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050+0.009
prereq231_013
Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology chaAlex Wissner-Gross
35.4%0.6200.050+0.006

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq231_013Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.AI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "13 new schools + more",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "McKenzie, where can we point people to learn more about Alpha School? Where do they go to? Well, we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce. So you can go to alpha.school and learn more about our model.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we've got alpha schools that are launching uh coast to coast. Uh we had 13 new schools this year and we'll be continuing to announce.",
  "conv_cues": "we'll be continuing to announce",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Alpha School operates 13 campuses nationwide",
      "notes": "HIT — Alpha School has 13 campuses confirmed via multiple sources.",
      "source": "https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/ — WFMD April 4 2026 reporting on Alpha expansion",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.wfmd.com/2026/04/04/ai-driven-school-expanding-to-major-us-cities-despite-union-pushback/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-04",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Alpha School publicly discloses 13 active campuses including Austin, Miami, Scottsdale, San Francisco, Manhattan + 8 others (Chicago, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh, Santa Monica, Palo Alto, Fort Worth, Plano)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with more to come.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "233_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Teachers union files material legal challenge to AI-driven model",
      "notes": "WFMD reporting already notes 'union pushback'; formal challenge is escalation step.",
      "source": "Union press releases, EdWeek",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NEA, AFT, or state-level teachers union files formal 
... (truncated)