PMCI_AGX_20260505predictionshort_horizon_breakout

AGX >10% in 5 trading days from 2026-05-05

Predictor: pmci_v1

Prior probability

5.0%

Current probability

15.2%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

—

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-05-05 – 2026-05-12

Edges in / out

0 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

PMCI v1 prediction. Active signals: ['insider_buy'].

Predictor calibration

Not assigned

This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

0 prob_history rows

No probability history yet.

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 15%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Prerequisites (0)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No prerequisites

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "spot": 697.150024,
  "ticker": "AGX",
  "model_p": 0.15213081900251732,
  "z_scores": {
    "insider_buy": 2.4529068499946045,
    "options_iv_skew": -0.21129059142089826,
    "options_oi_delta": -0.5147150852722124
  },
  "active_signals": [
    "insider_buy"
  ],
  "feature_pipeline_version": "pmci_v1"
}