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238_060predictionMacro/EconomyAGI

Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks

Predictor: Emad Mostaque · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banks | Everyone ultimately needs to have universal basic AI or claws or whatever that allows us to reach everyone. Everyone needs an AI that grows with them. And then money needs to come not from banks but for being human.

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
Everyone ultimately needs to have universal basic AI or claws or whatever that allows us to reach everyone. Everyone needs an AI that grows with them. And then money needs to come not from banks but for being human.

Predictor: Emad Mostaque

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.722
Brier
0.0073
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 4 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Emad Mostaque is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-12-31pendingSam Altman / OpenAI publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute (UBC) policy framework
    How: OpenAI executive (Altman or Kwon) publishes white paper, Senate testimony, or formal policy memo specifying eligibility, allocation size, and funding mechanism for per-citizen compute credits
    Source: Altman Atlantic interview + OpenAI Public Wealth Fund white paperconf 60%
  2. 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingFirst national or sub-national AI compute / dividend pilot enacted
    How: OECD government (national or US state) enacts legislation funding per-resident AI compute allowance, AI dividend, or sovereign-AI public benefit covering >=100,000 people for >=12 months
    Source: OpenResearch UBI study 2024 momentum + Altman UBC pivotconf 40%
  3. 2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingTax-and-distribute proposal targeting AI/compute economic rents reaches active legislative debate
    How: Congressional or G7 parliamentary hearing or markup on bill imposing AI-specific tax (compute tax, model-use tax, or AI corporate surcharge) earmarked for citizen distribution; CBO or equivalent scoring published
    Source: Altman 'tax capital not labor' framework + accelerating displacement metricsconf 45%
  4. 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingFirst G7 country implements national AI dividend or UBC at scale
    How: G7 government enacts and operationalizes recurring per-citizen payment or compute credit funded primarily from AI-sector taxation, covering >=50% of population for >=24 months
    Source: Anthropic/OpenAI 50% white-collar disruption forecasts + pilot momentumconf 25%
  5. 2033-01-01 → 2038-12-31pendingOECD-wide AI-displacement-driven income support reaches 100M+ recipients
    How: Aggregated OECD social-policy data shows AI-displacement-tied income support (UBI, UBC, wage insurance) covering >=100,000,000 individuals across member states
    Source: Cumulative effect once Phase 1-3 milestones fireconf 20%
  6. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 42.7% → 41.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.7%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 44.5% → 42.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.5%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 46.3% → 44.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.3%-3.7pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_057
Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionPeter Diamandis
56.2%0.5000.050-0.119
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
60.0%0.5000.050-0.095
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.040
prereq235_038
David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trialPeter Diamandis
74.0%0.5000.050-0.035
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.500+0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.058
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.056
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.047
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.035
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.034

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq242_057Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar missionSpace
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoffasi_recursive_self_improvement
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Everyone ultimately needs to have universal basic AI or claws or whatever that allows us to reach everyone. Everyone needs an AI that grows with them. And then money needs to come not from banks but for being human. That's the only way the math works. It doesn't work from taxation.",
  "verbatim": "Everyone ultimately needs to have universal basic AI or claws or whatever that allows us to reach everyone. Everyone needs an AI that grows with them. And then money needs to come not from banks but for being human.",
  "conv_cues": "needs to have; only way the math works",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "242_057",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman / OpenAI publicly proposes Universal Basic Compute (UBC) policy framework",
      "source": "Altman Atlantic interview + OpenAI Public Wealth Fund white paper",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-ubi-superintelligence",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI executive (Altman or Kwon) publishes white paper, Senate testimony, or formal policy memo specifying eligibility, allocation size, and funding mechanism for per-citizen compute credits"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First national or sub-national AI compute / dividend pilot enacted",
      "source": "OpenResearch UBI study 2024 momentum + Altman UBC pivot",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sam-altman-universal-basic-income-study-open-research/",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OECD government (national or US state) enacts legislation funding per-resident AI compute allowance, AI dividend, or sovereign-AI public benefit covering >=100,000 people for >=12 months"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tax-and-distribute proposal targeting AI/compute economic rents reaches active legislative debate",
      "source": "Altman 'tax capital not labor' framework + accelerating displacement metrics",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-altman-wants-universal-extreme-124300850.html",
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Congressional or G7 parliamentary hearing or markup on bil
... (truncated)