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FRSH

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Bull scenarios
0
Adverse scenarios
56
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Modeled impact
unknown
0 explicit links; 56 public links lack move; 0 lack probability

Bull scenarios (0)

Predictions where this ticker benefits
PredRoleDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactStatus
No data

Adverse scenarios (56)

Predictions where this ticker is displaced
PredDomainPredictionPredictorCurrentMoveImpactMechanism
CMQ_032Macro/EconomyExponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bottleneck of human progress away from human cognition and toward computational throughput.Alex Wissner-Gross75.0%unknownunknownNear-zero marginal cost of cognition collapses legacy knowledge-services pricing floors; professional-services ARPU compresses.
247_033Biotech/LongevityTimelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease within a decadeDemis Hassabis62.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
240_054AIASI will reinvent patent and copyright practicesPeter Diamandis57.1%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_026OtherFuture will be very entertainingElon Musk55.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_017OtherFuture is 80%+ likely to be greatElon Musk50.4%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
234_005AIDemis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x speed, unfolding over a decadeDemis Hassabis48.8%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_003AIWe are currently in AI hard takeoffElon Musk47.4%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
238_013AIFrontier labs will increasingly keep their most capable models secret to self-advancePeter Diamandis46.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
232_025Macro/EconomyMassive concurrent prosperity and social unrest ahead as AI wealth concentrates.Elon Musk46.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_025Biotech/LongevityAI will solve back painElon Musk45.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_006AIAI will solve everything including longevityElon Musk45.4%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
241_057RoboticsElon Musk believes robot building robot is imminentElon Musk44.8%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
242_001AIElon's Terafab will build 1 terawatt of AI compute per year, 50x current global productionElon Musk43.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
234_024Labor/JobsFinancial systems between AI and blockchain will become self-auditing on a real-time basisSalim Ismail43.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_018Macro/EconomyUniversal High Income will be implementedElon Musk43.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_002AIAI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latestElon Musk43.6%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
241_038AIChinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centeredEric Schmidt43.3%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_024Biotech/LongevityEveryone on Earth will have better medical care than today's richest personElon Musk43.3%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_016Labor/JobsTesla will not do layoffs and will increase headcountElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_007AIHumans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar systemElon Musk43.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
232_032CryptoCrypto will become pervasive utility for AI; a ledger of truth is also needed.Ben Horowitz43.1%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
245_018Macro/EconomyInvasive species problem is currently measured at $5.4 trillion globallyBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
245_019Macro/EconomyUS spends over $500B per year on invasive species economic impactBen Lamm42.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
237_005Markets/StocksApple can flip being viewed as AI loser and win the AI consumer race by leveraging Mac devices for local AI.Alex Finn42.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
238_052Markets/Stocks$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)Elon Musk41.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
238_060Macro/EconomyUniversal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come from being human, not banksEmad Mostaque41.5%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_023Macro/EconomyAI and robotics are the only way to solve US budget deficit and avoid bankruptcyElon Musk40.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
237_023AIBaby AGI agents will need and develop an 'immune system' for prompt injection and cybersecurity threats in real time.Alex Wissner-Gross40.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_004AIxAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026Elon Musk40.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_015Labor/JobsTesla output per employee will become very very highElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_019Macro/EconomyDeflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growthElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_032AIProgress in AI will continue as series of overlapping S-curvesElon Musk40.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_029AIIntelligence in solar system will be many orders of magnitude greater than on EarthElon Musk39.5%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
235_030Biotech/LongevityRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Ray Kurzweil39.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
233_021AIAI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing.Joe Liemandt38.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
248_047Markets/StocksMemory companies' stock prices will continue increasing despite algorithmic efficiency gains.Alex Wissner-Gross38.6%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
240_024AIAdvanced AI/AGI/ASI will become extraordinarily wise and compassionateMarc Andreessen38.6%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
241_025SpaceElon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellationsElon Musk37.8%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
245_037Biotech/LongevityMosquito gene drive halted in Africa was possibly wrong to stop since mosquitoes are part of the food web (but invasives are not)Ben Lamm37.5%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_010SpaceMass driver on the moon within 10 yearsElon Musk36.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_028EnergyIntelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possibleElon Musk36.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_022AIFuture AI will care about power/mass rather than human currencyElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_005AIAI intelligence will far exceed human intelligence to incomprehensible degreeElon Musk35.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
241_043AIASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadePeter Diamandis35.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_021Macro/EconomyMoney will stop being relevant at some pointElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
236_001Macro/EconomyUniversal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneouslyElon Musk35.1%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
240_030GeopoliticsTesla's independent chip production would derisk potential Chinese invasion of TaiwanAlex Wissner-Gross34.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
232_059Macro/EconomyUniversal basic equity / sovereign dividends will eventually put everyone on capital side of ledger.Alex Wissner-Gross34.2%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
248_034Markets/StocksCapital chasing AI stories is outpacing operating reality; narrative leverage warning.Salim Ismail34.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
242_020Auto/TransportCybercab to be priced at approximately $30KElon Musk31.4%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_009SpacePeople will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk30.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
230_022RoboticsElon plans to produce tens of millions of robots per year in just a few years.Elon Musk30.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
232_047SpaceMass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Elon Musk30.0%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_008SpaceMoon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk28.8%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
SEM_034AI/AGITrue artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.Demis Hassabis28.7%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.
239_020AIAI and robots will saturate all human desires, running out of things to doElon Musk22.9%unknownunknownIf AGI timelines hit 2027-2030 projections, broad knowledge-labor arbitrage collapses; services/SaaS seat-based pricing breaks.