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241_038predictionAIAGI

Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
43.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
11 / 6
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered | Claude 5 / GPT-6 / Gemini 3 capability benchmarks

Key catalyst: Claude 5 / GPT-6 / Gemini 3 capability benchmarks

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.604

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate
20.0%
1/5 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 43.3% → blend 43.3% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-04-24hitDeepSeek V4 tuned specifically for Huawei Ascend chips
    How: DeepSeek V4 release notes confirm hardware-software co-design for Huawei Ascend (domestic Chinese silicon)
    Source: https://www.cfr.org/articles/deepseek-v4-signals-a-new-phase-in-the-u-s-china-ai-rivalryconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — DeepSeek V4 explicitly tuned for Ascend chips, validating Schmidt's edge/distributed thesis vs centralized US AGI bet.
  2. 2026-04-27hitDeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models
    How: Independent benchmarks confirm DeepSeek V4 below GPT-5.5 / Claude Opus 4.7 / Gemini 3 on standard reasoning evals
    Source: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260427VL203/deepseek-ai-efficiency-usa-china.htmlconf 90%
    Notes: HIT — V4 underperforms frontier US models, confirms US AGI vs China edge strategy split.
  3. 2026-04-30hitChina's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector integration
    How: Chinese government policy documents confirm AI+ targets >=90% AI integration across key sectors by 2030
    Source: https://time.com/7339638/eric-schmidt-ai/conf 90%
  4. 2026-04-30hitOpenAI/Anthropic/Google maintain compute-intensive frontier model focus
    How: GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, Gemini 3 launches emphasize compute scale, RL test-time, frontier capabilities (not edge optimization)
    Source: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/Two_Loops--How_Chinas_Open_AI_Strategy_Reinforces_Its_Industrial_Dominance.pdfconf 95%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingChina expands open-weight model leadership globally
    How: Open-weight Chinese models (DeepSeek, Qwen) capture >=50% of HuggingFace top-100 open model downloads
    Source: HuggingFace stats, ArtificialAnalysisconf 70%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.3%+1.7pp
Network propagation: 41.6% → 43.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.6%+3.9pp
Network propagation: 37.8% → 41.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z37.8%+7.8pp
Network propagation: 30.0% → 37.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z30.0%-8.5pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.300 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z38.5%+8.5pp
Network propagation: 30.0% → 38.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z30.0%-30.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.300 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_024
AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Alex Wissner-Gross
46.4%0.6000.050-0.132
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.112
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.6000.050-0.096
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.084
prereq238_020
Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathemAlex Wissner-Gross
60.7%0.6000.050-0.055

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_024
In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling frAlex Wissner-Gross
31.4%0.4500.050-0.089
prereq239_001
Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsElon Musk
37.7%0.6000.050-0.086
prereqCMQ_003
By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels acrSam Altman
22.8%0.3500.050-0.046
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.045
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.035

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq238_020Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)AI
prereq248_024AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.Other
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (6)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereq239_001Global economy will be 10x its current size in 10 yearsMacro/Economy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq235_024In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to nearby communities.Energy
prereqCMQ_003By 2030, AI models will surpass peak human expert levels across virtually all cognitive domains — onset of true superintelligence.AI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the patterns are diverging",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "the Chinese strategy is a bit different. It's less central computing and much more edge computing... We're much more AGI ASI centered",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 tuned specifically for Huawei Ascend chips",
      "notes": "HIT — DeepSeek V4 explicitly tuned for Ascend chips, validating Schmidt's edge/distributed thesis vs centralized US AGI bet.",
      "source": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/deepseek-v4-signals-a-new-phase-in-the-u-s-china-ai-rivalry",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/deepseek-v4-signals-a-new-phase-in-the-u-s-china-ai-rivalry",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DeepSeek V4 release notes confirm hardware-software co-design for Huawei Ascend (domestic Chinese silicon)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "248_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 not competitive with frontier US models",
      "notes": "HIT — V4 underperforms frontier US models, confirms US AGI vs China edge strategy split.",
      "source": "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260427VL203/deepseek-ai-efficiency-usa-china.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260427VL203/deepseek-ai-efficiency-usa-china.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-27",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent benchmarks confirm DeepSeek V4 below GPT-5.5 / Claude Opus 4.7 / Gemini 3 on standard reasoning evals"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently)",
      "status": "partial",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_020",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "248_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "China's AI+ initiative targets 90% sector i
... (truncated)